Swings States in Africa Panel discussion at Gordon Institute Business Sciences (GIBS) Johannesburg, South Africa. This initiative, co-produced by The Brenthurst Foundation and the Konrad Adenauer Stiftung, will result in a high-level roundtable at Villa la Collina, Cadenabbia, Lake Como, Italy, 16-19 August 2015. For decades the best performing states in Africa have been small. The three most developed, according to the 2013 UN Human Development Survey, were Botswana, Seychelles and Mauritius, which together comprise around .3 per cent of Africa's total population. In the 2014 Mo Ibrahim Index of African Governance, those same three countries, plus another very small one - Cape Verde - ranked in the top five. And of the top five countries ranked by GDP per capita, the most populous is Botswana. At just over two million people, Botswana has just 1/10 the population of Nigeria's capital city, Lagos. What if this situation were reversed - what if Africa's big states were also its best performers? What might that mean for their regional neighbours and the continent as a whole - in terms of economic and human development, governance, and peace and security? There is a considerable body of research on why big states in Africa have, in general, performed badly since independence. Yet success in certain key states - regional powerhouses, sometimes referred to as strategic 'swing states' - can generate political and economic benefits well beyond their borders. Equally, the consequences of 'failure' - economic crises, acute political instability, armed conflict - in swing states are that much greater for the region and continent of which they form part. While there are no hard and fast criteria for what constitutes a 'swing state', relative economic and diplomatic weight, location and level of international integration (regionally and globally) are key factors. Above all, when what happens in a state typically has systemic significance for their regions then one might broadly consider them 'swing states'. Three countries which fit these criteria will be examined in this high level roundtable - Nigeria, Kenya and South Africa. These are not the only 'swing states' in sub-Saharan Africa; a complete list would certainly include Ethiopia and a strong case could be made for a few others. Some of the key questions to be addressed include: · What are the key opportunities for positively leveraging swing states' (potential) economic and political power? · How do issues of regional competition and state sovereignty hinder broader economic development? · How can Nigeria, South Africa and Kenya become more effective regional leaders, especially in security and integration structures? · How can Africa's swings states contribute to greater Africa-wide coordination on continental and wider international peace and security issues? · Are their policies indicating an increasingly 'inward-looking' approach to international problems, to the detriment of an active foreign policy? · How do relations between swing states and major external powers (eg EU, China, US) impact regional development in Africa?

• published: 11 Jul 2015
• views: 7