TRT World - World in Focus: Turkey’s ‘Red Lines’ in Syria

• published: 09 Jul 2015
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TURKEY SETS ‘RED LINES’ The Turkish military has tightened security along the Syrian border after its National Security Council discussed a possible cross border operation into northern Syria. The top council has established “red lines” against clashing militant groups and the Syrian regime. Turkey will consider any incursion to the west of Euphrates along the Turkish border by the Kurdish Democratic Union Party, or PYD, as “violation of the red line.” Any attack in the north of Idlib by Syrian regime forces will also be considered a transgression. The announcement by Turkey is a strong message to both the self-proclaimed Islamic State of Iraq and Sham, or ISIS and the PYD. The PYD is considered by Turkey to be the Syrian affiliate of the outlawed Kurdistan Worker’s Party, or PKK. Both ISIS and the PKK are deemed terrorist groups by Turkey, the EU and the US. ISIS-PYD CLASHES IN NORTHERN SYRIA ISIS is reportedly attacking the area between Azaz and Mare, two districts in northwestern Syria controlled by the Free Syrian Army. The move by ISIS came after it lost Tal Abyad to the People’s Protection Units the militant wing of the PYD. The Kurdish group was able to join (Use the Map pls.) its Kobane and Jazira “cantons” along the Turkish border after capturing the district on June 15. ISIS also currently controls parts from the towns of Jarablus to Mare situated along the Turkish border, between Kobane and Afrin. In a dire scenario where the Free Syrian Army can be threatened by ISIS in the area between Azez and Mare, it could ask the YPG for territorial protection. If the group moves for help, it may make the Kurdish group capable of extending its reach to the isolated canton of Afrin in western Syria.The PYD would need to overrun Jarablus passing west of the Euphrates to reach the Azez-Mare line. Then, the PYD might take full control of the Turkish-Syrian border and effectively arouse more suspicions in Turkey that a Kurdish state is at its gates. If ISIS captures the area, it would be able to take control of it directly through the Oncupinar border crossing with Turkey and could get closer to reaching the Cilvegozu crossing. And the road to Aleppo from the Turkish border will effectively be cut by the group. Therefore, Turkey fears it would virtually lose control of its border to hostile militant groups if either of these scenarios were to be realised. POSSIBLE CROSS-BORDER OPERATION Ankara is planning to (Map) establish a safe zone in northern Syria along the border from the Karkamis to Oncupinar crossings. The safe zone will be at a depth of 28 to 33 kilometres. Media reports have said that the mobilisation capabilities of 46 different armed groups have been watched closely by Turkey and approximately 18,000 soldiers are planned to participate in a possible cross-border operation. The Turkish government will have two scenarios to execute its possible cross-border operation. The first option entails Turkey seeking diplomatic support from NATO and US-led coalition forces. Ankara believes the airstrikes carried out by the anti-ISIS coalition has created a balance of power in the region which jeopardises Turkish . If the allies agree with Turkey, the Turkish Armed Forces could remain in the planned safe zone for at least two years. If this operation does not go ahead, Turkey could activate a second plan based on the “Southern Lebanon Model” used by Israel against Hezbollah presence in Lebanon. In this scenario, the Turkish military would have a shorter term presence in northern Syria, but it could strengthen FSA forces in the region by giving them logistical support and training. TURKISH GOVERNMENT SIGNALS LIMITS Turkish Prime Minister Ahmet Davutoglu has said that Turkey will prevent a “fait accompli” in northern Syria by any group including PYD and ISIS. Having said that Davutoglu emphasized that all the measures that will be taken, do not necessarily mean Turkey will intervene to Syria. President Erdogan previously declared that Turkey will never allow the establishment of a state in northern Syria which has a large Kurdish population, no matter what the cost for the country. Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/trtworld Twitter: https://twitter.com/trtworld