OTTAWA — Canadians say the federal Tories are their overwhelming choice to deal with the country's most critical challenges and would put the party in majority territory if an election were held today.
Fuelled by a substantial rebound in Ontario, a new survey finds the Stephen Harper Conservatives the first choice of 39 per cent of Canadians, 12 points ahead of Stéphane Dion's Liberals, at 27 per cent.
The figures foreshadow an electoral beating for the Liberals if they were to follow through with recent suggestions and bring the Conservatives down over next week's budget.
The poll, conducted by The Strategic Counsel for The Globe and Mail/CTV News, shows the widest Conservative lead of a number of recent surveys. Last week, the firm Ipsos-Reid had it 36-29 for the Tories, while Harris-Decima reported a 35-33 Tory margin in its poll released yesterday.
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“People feel a comfort level with Mr. Harper and with his government right now,” said Peter Donolo, a partner with The Strategic Counsel. “They feel he's got a steady hand. There's no feeling of throw-the-bums-out.”
The poll also finds that the New Democrats have dropped seven points from the 2006 election to 12 per cent of the electorate, and are tied with the Greens, which are up seven points to 12 per cent. The Bloc Québécois continues its dominance in Quebec, receiving 40-per-cent support from those surveyed.
The poll's results suggest the Tories would be flirting with a majority, said Mr. Donolo.
Some of the poll's key findings are in Ontario, where 42 per cent pick the Conservatives, an increase of 7 per cent from 2006 and of 5 per cent from last month. The Grits are down six points from the last election to 34.
Mr. Donolo said the stronger Tory numbers may stem from the fact that the poll was taken at a time of heightened election speculation, when voters' minds may have turned more seriously to whom they might vote for. He also said that a number of contentious issues – the Mulroney-Schreiber controversy, the difficulties involving Afghan detainees and the firing of nuclear watchdog Linda Keen – have been much lower in profile of late.
Moreover, Canadians do not appear to be seized in large numbers with anxiety over the economy, although the survey does show worry has increased somewhat.
The survey finds that Canadians believe the Conservatives are the best political party to manage a number of issues, including the economy, health care, the war in Afghanistan and taxation levels. The Tories have even drawn almost even with the Liberals on the issue of the environment, a matter which Mr. Dion has made a linchpin of his appeal to voters.
On the economy, 38 per cent believe the Tories are the best party able to handle an economic slowdown, compared with 25 per cent who pick the Liberals. The Conservatives are also picked by 41 per cent as the most qualified to deal with U.S.-Canada relations, compared with the Liberals, who are supported by 24 per cent.
The Liberals hold a lead on the issue of Quebec-Canada relations, on which 31 per cent say Mr. Dion's party is the most highly qualified, compared with 27 per cent who opt for the Tories.
The survey of 1,000 Canadians was taken Feb. 14-17 and is accurate to within 3.1 percentage points, 95 per cent of the time.
On one of the biggest policy questions facing Canadians, the survey found that 61 per cent oppose extending Canada's combat mission in Afghanistan, but that 51 per cent back the extension if the NATO countries provide additional troops, as recommended by the blue-ribbon panel headed by John Manley.
Despite the controversial nature of the mission, only 34 per cent support triggering a federal election over the plan to lengthen the mission. On a related matter, 36 per cent said the Conservatives are the party best able to manage the issue, compared with 21 per cent who felt the same way about the Liberals.
“Canadians essentially think the Conservatives can handle it better, even though their position is closer to the Liberals,” said Mr. Donolo.
Another reason the Liberals might want to avoid an election now may be found in a result that shows 54 per cent say they trust Mr. Harper with a majority government, while 45 per cent said the same thing about Mr. Dion. The figures suggest that Mr. Harper may be starting to erode concern over how he would govern with an unfettered majority.
Mr. Donolo said the Liberals may be having difficulty marking out their territory, given that they are forced to sometimes criticize the government and at other times prop it up.
“They are unable to define themselves strongly or convincingly, because of the need to constantly bob and weave to avoid an election,” he said. “It's very difficult to see a silver lining here for the Liberals.”
Of the major issues facing the electorate, 17 per cent rated health care as No. 1, with 14 per cent naming Afghanistan and 13 per cent saying it is the economy. The environment, which has traditionally led the pack, was down to fourth place, with 12 per cent saying it should be the most important issue in the next vote.
Finally, a full 60 per cent said they believe the country is on the right track, up from 38 per cent in May, 2005.
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