AFL: five things to look out for in finals week two

Can Hawthorn climb back into the flag race?

Outgunned by the Eagles last weekend, Hawthorn now face the very real prospect of joining the exclusive and unwanted group of reigning Premiers who’ve failed to win a final. They barely turned up against West Coast and with key forward Jack Gunston now missing, they have to win one game more than they’d hoped to reach the summit again.

The good news is that they’re at home on the MCG and in the past few seasons have had the wood over tonight’s opponents Adelaide, but how they respond to a loss like last week’s will be fascinating. The Hawks looked worn out, almost as though they’d come to the end of the road. What was particularly damning was that they really never got close an understrength West Coast, who missing Brownlow star Matt Priddis, fellow on-baller Chris Masten and also defender Jeremy McGovern for large chunks of the game.

Pillars of strength in campaigns past, champion senior players Sam Mitchell, Luke Hodge and Cyril Rioli were superb last weekend but had too few comrades. Jordan Lewis’s form was a clear concern but this year’s key defensive top-up James Frawley was probably the most glaring non-performer, looking every bit a player unaccustomed to the intensity of a cut-throat final both in attack and defence. If the Hawks position him conventionally this week his job won’t be any easier this week against the likes of Walker and Jenkins.

As it is, the Gunston injury means Ryan Shoenmakers comes in to the side but you wonder if Frawley might have been dropped otherwise. With Brian Lake and Josh Gibson he formed a defensive trio that – if you were looking at the silver lining - couldn’t possibly do worse this week, though if Lake flops again you get the sense he’s just about done. At the other end Luke Breust simply just needs to lift.

Hawks coach Alastair Clarkson rued the fact that his side had missed “half chances” last week, fumbling balls they’d normally take cleanly and missing targets they’d usually hit. But that wasn’t a question of failing to turn up on the day, they were harried and harassed all night and those pressure acts will have been studied closely by the Crows brains trust. The worry is that such a tailspin of form and perhaps even confidence is irretrievable, but this is Hawthorn. Their trophy cabinet isn’t heaving by luck. A third flag would put them up there with the great sides, but right now they have to put one foot in front of the other.

Bonus: this game will be coming to you via the Guardian goal-by-goal live blog.

Adelaide is riding a huge, crashing wave

Rank outsiders tonight in most numerically quantifiable senses, Adelaide nevertheless possess a quite potent mix of match-winning talent and some less definable qualities of self-belief, steeliness and spirit. To fight fire with fire and claw their way back beat the Dogs in that elimination final thriller last week showed that on their day they’ll match it with anyone. They’ve played that way for two months now under interim coach Scott Camporeale and you’d think that will make him extremely hard to overlook for the full-time job.

Still, the Crows haven’t put together back-to-back finals wins since their last flag in 1998 and Hawthorn rarely lowers its colours two weeks running. The bad news last week was that Adelaide was smashed in both the clearances and forward entries, the kind of head-start they’d be remiss to grant Hawthorn. Sam Jacobs was solid in the ruck last week and will probably relish the sight of lumbering Hawks duo David Hale and Ben McEvoy. Harder to measure statistically was the way his side refused to yield, counter-attacking ferociously in ways they’ll need to replicate this week.

Tonight a lot will ride on the Crows success in taking risks to outscore the potent Hawks and the ability of Taylor Walker – the single most impactful and inspirational leader of last weekend and indeed the entire season in a symbolic sense – Eddie Betts and Charlie Cameron to replicate their forward line carnage of last week. Josh Jenkins will need to involve himself far more and probably will.

What’s perhaps been underrated about the Crows in all the excitement about the forwards this year is the impact of some lesser-mentioned players. Brodie Smith’s precise kicking and the carrying gains he makes before those heat-seekers are launched (his stats here make for interesting reading) make him a key asset, recalled defender Kyle Cheney is tough as nails, Riley Knight has a habit of slipping under the guard of opponents and surely no other player in the competition racks up 20 touches per game with the ease that Richard Douglas does.

So the Crows are a puncher’s chance here and it’s very hard not to barrack for the sheer sporting romance of it all.

Sydney shape as a hard-luck story of this finals series

It came as no huge surprise when Sydney flayed North Melbourne to the tune of 71 points in last season’s preliminary final but things haven’t exactly gone to plan for the Swans in recent times, so they enter Saturday’s knock-out semi mindful of an opponent now gathering up a head of steam. Not just that, but the Wans have also suffered a host of injuries and absences – Franklin, Parker, Jack, Reid the most troublesome – that would cruel the chances of most sides. A win here would be testament to their depth and the strength of their squad mentality. Luck certainly hasn’t gone their way so far.

Neutrals are presented with an interesting proposition in this game. Which of these teams will put up a greater fight in a preliminary final scenario, a severely undermanned but well-drilled Sydney or the lesser-credentialed but full-fit Roos? Based on last week’s games you’d have to lean towards the latter. If the Swans do bow out of the race, it’s probably the last we’ll see of dual-Brownlow champion Adam Goodes, who wound back the clock last week to keep his side in the game and with any luck will do so again at least one more time. He’s not the only Swan who’ll need to put in a shift.

It will be less an upset than last week if North Melbourne beat the Swans

As hard as it is to believe given their rank outsider status a few weeks back, North Melbourne have a legitimate chance of making a run at a preliminary final here. They’re not just an outside chance in this game, they face a severely weakened and some would say vulnerable opponent. Despite a generally poor record against the Swans and the fact that they’re playing on everybody’s least favourite playing surface, they’ll enter this game with genuine belief.

What North needs most is for a lot of the things that went right last week – Shaun Atley’s run across half-back, Ben Cunnington’s command of the stoppages, Boomer Harvey’s game-breaking brilliance, Waite and Petrie’s defence-splitting presence – to keep rolling against the Swans. You’d also have to say that there’s actually scope for improvement on last week; Nick Dal Santo, Lindsay Thomas and Robbie Nahas were all non-factors last week and you can’t imagine them missing out two weeks running. The major qualifiers? This is North Melbourne we’re talking about. Farce always looms ominously.

The best and worst of the rest

Elsewhere on Planet Footy, the annual carve-up of talent is starting to take shape with a number of players setting their sights on greener pastures and better-feathered nests. The biggest names being thrown about at the moment are Gold Coast’s troubled midfield star Harley Bennell, whose club will certainly listen to offers, and highly-rated forward Cam McCarthy, a player GWS don’t want to let go. Bennell’s case is particularly interesting because his lifestyle and disciplinary missteps mean that whichever clubs are chasing him are making the statement that they can handle his baggage.

Other high-profile trade stories this week include the possibility that neither Jack Watts nor Chris Yarran will be at their respective clubs next year. Yarran, still only 24 and in possession of speed and skill that would interest any club, is favored to land at Richmond having not attended the Blues best and fairest count last night. Elsewhere, his teammate Matthew Kreuzer’s frail body is proving a quite predictable stumbling block for a move and Bomber Jake Melksham, who has either suffered under the pressures of Essendon’s 3-year crisis or simply isn’t the A-grade midfielder he looked in his first season, depending on your view, is reportedly heading to Melbourne on a 4-year, $1.6 million deal. Will he be given Ben Holland’s old guernsey number? We can only hope.