Ipsos MORI/Standard poll on Cameron vs Corbyn
http://t.co/Dx8eHfXtGU pic.twitter.com/TmBGxko6Dt
— Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) September 24, 2015
53% tell Ipsos Standard poll that DC "most capable PM" compared with 27% for Corbyn
— Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) September 24, 2015
Thursday's Daily Mail front page: UK drivers to sue VW for billions #tomorrowspaperstoday #bbcpapers pic.twitter.com/gx01M70dY7
— Nick Sutton (@suttonnick) September 23, 2015
The “revelations” from Day 4 of the Daily Mail’s serialisation of Lord Ashcroft’s unofficial biography of Mr Cameron don’t quite have the potency of what we saw earlier in the week.
There’s nothing on today’s front page that struck me as being a must read and interestingly the amount of space being allocated is declining. That’s the problem with serialisations – you get the really juicy bits in right at the start but you do need to hold back material so that there is something that grabs attention every day.
Of the three areas highlighted this morning just one of them, the breakfast with the Queen, appears to provide new information. But surely don’t all Prime Ministers at some stage experience less comfortable sessions with the monarch during their terms of office?
The other two, foreign aid on which Lord Ashcroft has repeatedly set out his views and what appears to be a reference to Cameron’s Handling of the Leveson Inquiry, are about the politics rather than offering new information.
Maybe there are more goodies to come tomorrow or at the weekend but don’t hold your breath.
The big political issue that the book has raised is the timing of Cameron’s knowledge of Lord Ashcroft non Dom status. That could go on.
YouGov polling for New Statesman showing gap between views of Corbyn supporters & potential LAB voters pic.twitter.com/XMed4MZeS2
— Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) September 23, 2015
Peter Kellner has an analysis in tomorrow’s New Statesman which includes the polling featured above on the attitude on a range of matters by Corbyn supporters, current firm and weak LAB voters, and the target groups that the party needs to bring on board at a general election.
Question by question the gap is massive. Those who came to LAB to election the new leader have a very different view of the world.
This is from Peter’s article:
“..Those who voted for Jeremy Corbyn overwhelmingly describe themselves as left-wing. They reject capitalism, and they admire Tony Benn more than they admire Tony Blair. Two-thirds of them want to abolish private schools and the monarchy, and favour higher taxes to pay for greater welfare.
Labour’s target voters think none of these things. Nor do many current Labour supporters. The table gives the main findings. The first column sets out the views of those who voted for Corbyn to be party leader. The final three columns are taken from a separate survey of more than 10,000 electors. Currently, just over a quarter would vote Labour; a further 20 per cent would consider doing so. To win in 2020, Labour must retain the support of almost all its present supporters and at least half its potential voters.
Our figures show how hard this will be..”
Clearly a lot can happen in the next four and a half years but but us hard to see how Mr. Corbyn can keep on side those who supported him in the leadership election and those voters that the party needs to attract.
:
I think that's as good as speech as I've ever heard from a Lib Dem leader. Passionate, personal and grown up where it needed to be.
— Tim Shipman (@ShippersUnbound) September 23, 2015
Be honest, sensible Labour twitter people: how many of you are now daydreaming of Tim Farron as Labour leader?
— James Kirkup (@jameskirkup) September 23, 2015
Liberal Democrat leader Tim Farron calls on the Government to opt in to the EU plan to relocate 120,000 migrants and refugees across Europe
— Sky News Newsdesk (@SkyNewsBreak) September 23, 2015
COMMENT Around 42 minutes. Competently delivered but not much change or challenge.
— Adam Boulton (@adamboultonSKY) September 23, 2015
But that was a speech of a new leader with survival of his party in mind. Housing, refugees and Europe the issues to give purpose
— Faisal Islam (@faisalislam) September 23, 2015
Ex-Brown spin doctor says Cameron's team made pig story worse by not issuing official denial
http://t.co/TYiQixf8yt pic.twitter.com/EgS15hYuqf
— Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) September 23, 2015
There’s a fascinating critique in the Guardian this morning by Damian McBride on the way the Cameron team has dealt with the allegations being made by Lord Ashcroft, particularly the one about the pig.
He argues strongly that they should have been a total an absolute denial of the story right at the very start and by that not being it has been made the situation far worse.
McBride, of course, worked for Gordon Brown and had a lot of experience of situations like this. He observes:
“.. Perhaps the PM’s spin team decided that responding officially to the pig story would oblige them to respond to potentially more damaging allegations regarding Ashcroft’s non-dom status. Better, instead, to say they were not commenting on any of the book’s contents.
If so, it was a major miscalculation, and one I’d suggest they are too experienced to have made. In the absence of an instant bucket of water, the story has caught fire over the past two days. Not only that, it’s allowed other newspapers to declare open season on Cameron’s private life, as we see from today’s “coke parties” splash in the Sun…
@LordAshcroft in the Mail – Day 3 pic.twitter.com/Y3MPI5kcek
— Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) September 22, 2015
Wednesday's Daily Mirror front page -
Cam: I've been stabbed in back by a little xxxxx
#tomorrowspaperstoday pic.twitter.com/id5vrtn3Us
— Nick Sutton (@suttonnick) September 22, 2015
Although at the moment this is not directly a political story there are likely to be huge political implications. These will be on top of the financial disturbance to the markets that has started to happen. The dramatic drop in the VW share price already is going to filter through to many areas.
One thing that comes to mind immediately is how come there are apparently much tighter clean air standards in the United States compared within the EU. Is the automobile industry in the EU a more powerful lobby and able to influence the authorities more?
What is going to be done with the 11 million vehicles that are said to have the software? Presumably they are going to be recalled. Given what we know it is possible that the cars will end up being more fuel hungry and perhaps perform less well than before. After all that seem to have been the point for VW and why the deception was necessary.
Will owners of the cars be ready to submit their vehicles to the recall if they think that it could perform worse when they get it back?
The idea of trying to circumvent a test so that it only applies in specific circumstances reminds me very much of Lance Armstrong and what has been prevalent in the world of professional cycling for many years.
One thing’s for sure: the big move to diesel private cars that we’ve seen in the last decade is likely to come to a standstill.
— Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) September 22, 2015
One aspect of this which has a betting implication is what the Ashcroft revelations will do to the next CON leader markets?
Is recent months, particularly since the July budget, the sentiment has moved very strongly to the Chancellor, George Osborne. I wonder whether some of the backlash provoked by the tabloid frenzy could impact on him because, after all, Osborne was also a member of the Bullingdon club at Oxford and has had his own share of bad publicity.
It probably does not help Boris Johnson either.
Neither of the other two favourites in the betting markets are white males – Theresa May and Sajid Javid. Maybe if there is an early contest then this would boost their chances.
My own view is that Cameron’s successor could be someone who is not really in the frame at the moment.
All of the above is froff, though, and takes attention away from the most serious political allegation relating to when David Cameron knew of Lord Ashcroft’s tax status which is what the Guardian is focusing on. It was interesting yesterday that this is what SNP leader, Nicola Sturgeon, chose to raise.
So far we await to see how the official leader of the opposition, Jeremy Corbyn, exploits what would seem to be a heaven sent situation.
Let’s see what the Mail will be doing in part 3 tomorrow.
