A Chicken Is Not Pillage

Week 4 Picks

And so the bye weeks begin.  Sadder still that some notable players aren't even over their suspensions yet.

Of course, the conversation now turns to when the 3-0 teams will get their first loss and whether or not the 0-3 teams have a ghost's chance in hell of making the playoffs.  I always find this jabber to be, politely put, premature.  What it really is is an impatient attempt to force a story line.  Good teams can and do go 3-0 all throughout a football season.  Somehow it's supposed to be more significant when it happens at the beginning?  No.  In 2012, the Denver Broncos did not begin 3-0, but rather 2-3 in their first 5 games.  They then won 11 straight to take the top seed in the AFC.  The 2009 Broncos were 6-0, and failed to make the playoffs with a record of 8-8.  What's important is how strong these teams look in their wins and how they are improving.

There are 7 teams that are 3-0.  Carolina, Atlanta, Arizona, Cincinnati, Green Bay, New England and Denver.  It really doesn't matter which of these teams lose first, because they all appear to be improving, for now.  Carolina and Atlanta will have to face each other, twice.  Carolina also has to tangle with Green Bay, as the Broncos do as well.  New England has to go through Denver, and Denver has a meeting with the Bengals.  The only team that looks like it could come through the schedule at 16-0 is, sadly, the Hatriots.  Right now I give them a 60% chance of doing that very thing, save that they face Denver in Denver (for the first time in 5 years except the AFC championship in which the Broncos romped and held Blount to fewer rushing yards than Brady.)

Here's what we're really seeing.  The Cardinals have the easiest road to the playoffs and a solid team.  Carolina is gutting things out and Cam Newton is an early candidate for MVP.  The Packers and Patriots both look as solid AF.  Atlanta looks like a spoiler but not a championship squad.  Denver is improving on offense, something everyone should be terrified of with Manning in the shotgun, with the best defense the NFL has seen in some years.  Green Bay already looks like they have the Hallas in the bag.  Forget the 3-0.  There is a lot of football to play.

The 0-3 teams, on the other hand, actually matter.  There are several good ones, in Detroit, Baltimore and New Orleans.  Frankly, the only one that looks capable of pulling itself out of a hole is Baltimore.  Still, their offensive line sucks and their defense is positively discombobulated.  Even without Ben Rapistburger, (injured), and Martavis Bryant, (still suspended), Micheal Vick has the wherewithal to send the Ravens to 0-4.  Seattle is hungry for cat-meat, so expect the Lions to go 0-4.  New Orleans faces a solid Dallas O-Line with a Rob Ryan defense that can't stop a high school nerd from scoring.  The Saints go 0-4.  Chicago is simply the worst team in the league, even with Jay Cutler.  The Bears go 0-4.

Thursday:

Baltimore (0-3) at Pittsburgh (2-1) -  Steelers (23-20, Ravens)

Sunday:

New York Jets (2-1) at Miami (1-2) - Jets (27-14, Jets)

Jacksonville (1-2) at Indianapolis (1-2) - Colts (13-16, Colts)

New York Giants (1-2) at Buffalo (2-1) - Bills (24-10, G-MEN!)

Carolina (3-0) at Tampa Bay (1-2) - Panthers  (37-23, Panthers)

Philadelphia (1-2) at Washington (1-2) - Eagles (20-23, Taterskins)

Oakland (2-1) at Chicago (0-3) - Raiders (20-22, Bears)

Houston (1-2) at Atlanta (3-0) - Falcons (21-48, Falcons)

Kansas City (1-2) at Cincinnati (3-0) - Bengals (21-36, Bengals)

Cleveland (1-2) at San Diego (1-2) - Chargers (27-30, Chargers)

Green Bay (3-0) at San Francisco (1-2) - Packers (17-3, Packers)

Minnesota (2-1) at Denver (3-0) - Broncos (20-23, Broncos)

Sunday Night:

Dallas (2-1) at New Orleans (0-3) - Cowboys (20-26, Saints)

Monday Night:

Detroit (0-3) at Seattle (1-2) - Seahawks (10-13, 'Hawks)

Byes:  New England, Tennessee

Last Week's Score:  14 - 2, 87%   Overall:  30 - 18, 62%

Week 3 Picks

This is my third year of picking every game every week.  Last week was the first time I called less than 50% of the results.  It was a weekend of firsts.

For the first time in history, the Raiders, Taterskins, Jaguars, Buccaneers, Browns and Jets all won on the same weekend.  Notice, 5 of those 6 were last year's divisional 'worsts'.  The Jaguars would have joined them save for a tie breaker with Tennessee.  Of all of these teams, the one which seems capable of maintaining that winning momentum is the New York Jets.  Washington has a huge divisional advantage with the injuries and turmoil in the NFC East.  The Raiders, especially at the Quarterback position, have a great deal to build with, but a tough division to conquer.  The Jets, however, simply shut the Colts down.  They are on track for one of the best defensive showings of the young season, and that is precisely how to win the AFC East.

Another first for the weekend, no team in the history of the NFL has ever started a season by blowing a double digit lead in the fourth quarter two games in a row.  That is until now.  The New York Giants are 0-2, having been up by 10 points in the last quarter of their previous two games, and then watching it all slip away.  Much noise has been made about clock management and the failings of Eli Manning.  I consider all of that to be balderdash.  If anyone wants to really concede how a team gives up a double digit lead, look no further than the defense.  If a defense can't stop a team in fifteen critical minutes, what makes anyone think they can stop them in 1?  Yes, Eli's clock management against the Cowboys could have been better.  But that Giant defense is mediocre at best, a fact that has dire consequences for the GMen through the rest of the season.

Speaking of mediocre defense and dire consequence, two other 0-2 teams are suffering on defense, and the reason is clear.  Both Seattle and the Ravens were playoff teams last year, and have been stung by a lack of defensive leadership.  Kam Chancelor's hold out in Seattle has had very real consequences for the Legion of Gloom.  He is back in camp now, and it should be expected that the Seattle D will improve from here.  The Ravens are in a much worse position.  There was a notable drop in performance when Ray Lewis retired.  Terrell Suggs picked up much of the leadership mantle for that team, and now he's out for the season on IR.  The Seahawks still stand a good chance of making it back to the playoffs.  The Ravens, not so much.

I could have written an entire post about another 0-2 team, the Philadelphia Eagles, but a short paragraph will suffice.  As I've expressed, I am not a believer in Chip Kelly's genius, and now we are seeing exactly why.  He seems to want to engineer an offensive machine that is plug-and-play.  Simply put, his parts don't fit the design he has in his head.  The fast moving offense which worked with Foles,  Sanchez, LeSean McCoy and Jeremy Maclin, is simply not working with the skills of Bradford, DeMarco Murray and the two-tight ends Celek and Ertz.  At least 5 times in the last two games I have watched the Eagles fail to get necessary yardage and said to myself, "gee, Chip, I bet you wish you had Tebow in there now ..."  I am not a worshiper of Touchdown Jesus by any means, but he added an element to Chip's machine that is sorely lacking, creative mobility.   And just in case anyone was still wondering whether Murray's rushing title of 2014 was him or his offensive line in Dallas, I think we have our answer.  The machine will work better with practice.  The question for the Eagles is this, how much of the season will they lose before pulling it together.  My guess is at least a third.

On with the picks and hopes for improvement.

Thursday:

Washington (1-1) at New York Giants (0-2) -  Giants (21-32, G-Men)

Sunday:

Atlanta (2-0) at Dallas (2-0) -  Cowboys (39-28, Falcons)

Indianapolis (0-2) at Tennessee (1-1) - Colts (35-33, Colts)

Oakland (1-1) at Cleveland (1-1) - Raiders (27-20, Raiders)

Cincinnati (2-0) at Baltimore (0-2) - Bengals (28-24, Bengals)

Jacksonville (1-1) at New England (2-0) - Hatriots (17-51, Hatriots)

New Orleans (0-2) at Carolina (2-0) - Panthers (22-27, Panthers)

Philadelphia (0-2) at New York Jets (2-0) - Jets (24-17, Eagles)

Tampa Bay (1-1) at Houston (0-2) - Texans (9-19, Texans)

San Diego (1-1) at Minnesota (1-1) - Vikings (14-31, Vikings)

Pittsburgh (1-1) at St. Louis (1-1) - Steelers (12-6, Steelers)

San Fransisco (1-1) at Arizona (2-0) - Cardinals (7-47, Cards)

Buffalo (1-1) at Miami (1-1) - Bills (41-14, Bills)

Chicago (0-2) at Seattle (0-2) - Seahawks (0-26, Seahawks)

Sunday Night:

Denver (2-0) at Detroit (0-2) - Broncos (24-12, Broncos)

Monday Night:

Kansas City (1-1) at Green Bay (2-0) - Packers (28-38, Packers)

Last Week's Score: 6 - 10, 37%   Overall: 16 - 16, 50%

Week 2 Picks

A lot of upsets in Week 1, but that is to be expected early on.  We'll see how folks do in Two.

 

Thursday:

Denver (1-0)  at Kansas City (1-0) - Chiefs (31 - 24, Broncos)

Sunday:

Houston (0-1) at Carolina (1-0) - Panthers (17 - 24, Panthers)

San Fransisco (1-0) at Pittsburgh (0-1) - Steelers (18 - 43, Steelers)

Tampa Bay (0-1) at New Orleans (0-1) - Saints (26 - 19, Buccaneers)

Detroit (0-1) at Minnesota (0-1) - Vikings (16 - 26, Vikings)

Arizona (1-0) at Chicago (0-1) - Cardinals (48 - 23, Cardinals)

New England (1-0) at Buffalo (1-0) - Bills (40 - 32, Hatriots)

San Diego (1-0) at Cincinnati (1-0) - Bengals (19 - 24, Bengals)

Tennessee (1-0) at Cleveland (0-1) - Titans (14 - 28, Browns)

Atlanta (1-0) at New York Giants (0-1) - Giants (24 - 20, Falcons)

St. Louis (1-0) at Washington (0-1) - Rams (10 - 24, Taterskins)

Miami (1-0) at Jacksonville (0-1) - Dolphins (20 - 23, Jaguars)

Baltimore (0-1) at Oakland (0-1) - Ravens (33 - 37, Raiders)

Dallas (1-0) at Philadelphia (0-1) - Eagles (20 - 10, Cowboys)

Sunday Night:

Seattle (0-1) at Green Bay (1-0) - Packers (17 - 27, Packers)

Monday Night:

New York Jets (1-0) at Indianapolis (0-1) - Colts (20 - 7, Jets)

Last Week's Score:  10 - 6, 62%   Overall:  10-6, 62%