Global Guerrillas

The Snowden Effect

Since Snowden fled the US in May of 2013, the US has experienced an increasingly brazen series of massive cyber attacks by criminal groups and nation-states.  These include (there are many more not listed):

• Target.
• Sony.
• The Internal Revenue Service.
• The Office of Personnel Management
• The Joint Chiefs of Staff

The reason for this is simple.  The US has lost its ability to deter cyber attacks.

Why?   

Snowden, or more specifically, the US response to Snowden's theft.

What did the US do to Snowden after he fled the US with the equivalent of the crown jewels of national security data?  

Nothing.  Crickets.  

This response told the world, in no uncertain terms, that the US will do NOTHING when its government and companies are hacked.  

Unfortunately for us, non-response to a brazen attack is toxic to deterrence.  

Deterrence is an important concept.  The entire security system of the modern world is based on the effectiveness of nuclear deterrence.  It's why we haven't had global conventional wars since World War 2.  Wars that might have killed billions if they had occurred.

For deterrence (a psychological method of warfare) to be effective, it needs to be credible.  The potential attacker needs to know his/her victim will respond with overwhelming force.  

Cyber deterrence works the same way.  Until Snowden, the US had credibility.  A credibility gained by decades of holding the line during the Cold War and a slightly crazy response to 9/11 (in deterrence, being seen as crazy is often beneficial).

After the non-response to Snowden, the US lost all credibility.  It showed that it was unwilling or incapable of responding to cyber attack.  

At that moment, the US opened the floodgates to all potential cyber attackers and they have responded with glee.  

The ability of the US to deter cyber attack has vanished and there is absolutely no way that this or the next administration is going to do anything to fix it.  

We can expect to see many more, and increasingly aggressive attacks in the future.  Unfortunately, the folks in charge won't be paying the price for this abject failure. 

We will. 

The OPM Infobomb Explodes

A couple of years ago I wrote a short post  InfoBomb.  

When a government or corporation collects so much information on a citizenry that the unintentional release, theft, or misuse of it is a catastrophic event.

The most immediate danger from the government collecting data on us isn't that they will use it against us...  it is from the damage it will do when they inevitably lose control of it.

This analysis was spot on:  the failure at the Office of Personnel Management (OPM) is an infobomb.  

Chinese hackers were able to steal records on 18 m current and former government employees + sensitive background information submitted by people applying for security clearances.   

I believe this infobomb has done catastrophic damage to US security.  How?  Big data + bots (made smarter via AI) will be able to turn this data into a decisive instrument of warfare.

For example:  want that guy on the button to stand down?

Call him up with a threat to his family. Threaten to release information on him.  Etc.  

Worse, through automation this can be done on a scale and with a speed far, far greater than what old school spooks are capable of. 

Mark my words:  This infobomb is a catastrophe.  

A catastrophe we won't understand the consequences of until the US loses the next big conflict.  

PS:  If you are interested in seeing how incompetent, unrepentant, pretentious, and dangerous government bureaucrats can be, watch the Director of OPM Katherine "it's not my fault" Archuleta in action.   Her behavior is very similar to what we saw from the big bankers after the 2008 meltdown.  Her recent Congressional testimony is emblematic of why Wall Street bankers and Washington bureaucrats are the #1 threat to our future prosperity.