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Aug 14, 2014
I am now also emailing my posts directly to my PMC donors at the same time they are emailed for posting on this website. If you wish to be on the list, please make a donation here.
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Krugman on debt
Debt Is Good By Paul Krugman Aug 21 (NYT) — Rand Paul said something funny the other day. No, really — although of course it wasn’t intentional. On his Twitter account he decried the irresponsibility of American fiscal policy, declaring, “The last time the United States was debt free was 1835.” Which
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Existing home sales, Philadelphia Fed survey, Nat gas
More existing home are turning over, however look at the downward revisions in the last chart. And while prices may be up, they still haven’t reached replacement value as evidenced by the lack of new construction and most recently the sharp decline in permits after the run up in front of NY’s
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Oil and Gas
Oil
Aug 19, 2015
With prices down, drilling is down over 50%, and production is beginning to fall as well. At the same time, gasoline consumption and miles driven are both up. Therefore, some of the money saved due to lower prices is being spent to buy more gasoline, which, with domestic production falling, means more
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euro area trade, housing comments, consumer prices
Continues very strong. This is for member using the euro: Size of New Homes in U.S. Shrinks by One Closet By Kris Hudson Aug 18 (WSJ) — Of the 206,000 homes that went under construction in the second quarter, the median size was 2,479 square feet. That was 40 square feet smaller—or
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Fed white paper, building permits, transport charts, Japan trade
So someone on high sees it much like I do… ;) In a white paper dissecting the U.S. central bank’s actions to stem the financial crisis in 2008 and 2009, Stephen D. Williamson, vice president of the St. Louis Fed, finds fault with three key policy tenets. Specifically, he believes the zero
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housing starts, redbook retail sales
Housing
Aug 18, 2015
Permits always lead, as there are no starts without permits. And in NY it was the rush to get multi family permits in before June 15 when a tax break expired is what caused the prior surge in permits and some starts as well and is now reversing: Housing Starts Highlights Building
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Empire manufacturing, housing market index, EU merchandise trade
The lack of support from the lost oil capex continues to ripple out: United States : Empire State Mfg Survey Highlights Out of the blue, the Empire State index has plunged deeply into negative column this month, to minus 14.92 in August vs plus 3.86 in July. This is by far the
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Credit check, gov employees
Credit
Aug 17, 2015
Another boring week here with no sign of acceleration or even ‘some’ improvement: Thought I’d throw this in for those of you worrying about out of control growth of govt payrolls:
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Producer Prices, Industrial Production, Rail Traffic, Container Exports
Exports, Interest Rates, Manufacturing, Trade, Transportation
Aug 15, 2015
This is not a reason to hike rates, but the Fed has other reasons beginning with their mistaken belief that the current policy is ‘highly accommodative’ and potentially inflationary, etc. etc. etc. when the opposite is the actual case: Up a bit more than expected, but all due to auto production, and
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Retail Sales, Jobless Claims, Import Export Prices, Business Inventories, Japan Machine Orders, Freight Transportation, Gas Prices
Economic Releases, Employment, Fed, GDP, Japan, Manufacturing, Oil, Trade, Transportation
Aug 13, 2015
This is being touted as a strong report, but, again, looks to me like it’s dropped since year end and at best is moving sideways from there, and not to forget that a large share of auto sales are imports. But I do agree the Fed is heck bent on raising rates
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