Chris Weston, IG They effectively make the FOMC meeting about as dovish as the various playbooks had suggested it would be. The destruction of short-term US bond yields were testament to this view, although some of the commentary from Janet Yellen around the domestic economy was actually fairly upbeat. It seems logical the central bank
From Mac Bank: Cement prices are less volatile than steel but correlate strongly: Steel of course leads iron ore. Just as well everything is awesome!
From Deutsche: In our view the economy is in the process of stabilizing, reflected in recent trends in the labour market and measures of business conditions. Namely jobs growth has largely been sufficient over the course of the past year to keep the unemployment rate little changed. Concomitantly, measures of business conditions in the NAB survey have lifted to
by Chris Becker With a new Prime Minister who should be embracing the future of energy, here comes Tesla Energy to Australia! From Gizmodo: Tesla, the company best known for its Model S electric sedan, is launching Tesla Energy in Australia, which will bring products including both the residential Powerwall and the industrial scaled Powerpack
More from Captain Glenn via Fairfax: Glenn Stevens reckons the local economy’s got a good chance of surviving a hard landing in China, thanks to having some rates firepower left. Australia would be protected from a sharp downturn in China’s economy by lower interest rates and a flexible exchange rate, the RBA governor says. “We can lower interest
China’s official 70 city house price data for August is out and shows more recovery with a 0.3% month-on-month rise: The rate of appreciation is still slow and may be slowing but it’s too early to say. Year-on-year prices are still down -2.3%, which is still below all previous corrections: 35 cities saw price gains
From the AFR: A furious Scott Morrison has confirmed Tony Abbott offered to make him Treasurer and “throw Joe Hockey under a bus” so Mr Abbott could save his leadership. In an extraordinary interview on radio 2GB, Mr Morrison effectively broke up with radio host Ray Hadley with whom he has had a very close media relationship. Mr Morrison
From PIMCO: Going into today’s Fed meeting there were two main camps: those who expected a dovish hike today that hinted that December was off the table, and those (like me) who expected a hawkish punt – no hike today but language similar to Fed Chair Janet Yellen’s July testimony that indicated she expected a
From the good captain: Opening Statement to the House of Representatives Standing Committee on Economics Glenn Stevens Governor Opening Statement to the House of Representatives Standing Committee on EconomicsCanberra – 18 September 2015 Chair Members of the Committee Thank you for the opportunity to meet with you today. The Australian economy continues to progress through
by Chris Becker The Federal Reserve kept its historically low interest rates on hold overnight in one of the most anticipated FOMC meetings in recent years. The takeaway is pretty simple, while the Fed is relatively happy with the domestic economy, although the inflation outlook has moderated and the labour market remains the key focus,
The AFR has a nice spruik piece today on where to buy property this Spring which, for anyone with an eye on the cycle, should be to sell. For Sydney: Plenty of Chinese influence in the North Shore suburbs but check out Melbourne: The red boxes denote heavily Chinese influenced areas and with that bid in trouble, Melbourne may
By Chris Becker Thank Dog below that’s all over. The Fed met and did nothing overnight, leaving the interest rate at near zero percent. The language however was what markets reacted to and in a nutshell it wasn’t dovish enough to support stocks, but was enough to send the USD nose diving. This gave all
Exclusively from Gerard Minack. Australia has a new prime minister to face the unwind of a once-in-a-century mining boom. Next year looks tough: the capex decline will accelerate, the car-makers will leave, and the housing boost may fade. A lower A$ is an offset. The key to avoiding recession will be avoiding job losses. It
From the WSJ comes the RBA’s Mr Rainbow: “The issue that is most prominent, that we have to resolve before we move to other things, is the awkwardness of the size of the budget deficit, and the likelihood that it will remain very wide in five or six years,” he said. “That is what the
And so, the biggest non-surprise in recent memory from the FOMC: Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in July suggests that economic activity is expanding at a moderate pace. Household spending and business fixed investment have been increasing moderately, and the housing sector has improved further; however, net exports have been soft.
Three-quarters of polled economists predicted that the Fed would hike rates today. This was despite markets giving it only a one-in-four chance (and the bleedin’ obvious). We might ask how “economists” got it so very wrong (again). It could be safety in numbers, that is it is better for a career to be wrong with the
Donald Trump continues to shake up the US Presidential race. Examine this chart and weep for our fates, from Bloomberg: And does it work? Well, yes: But before you get too cocky, imagine for a moment the rousing reception at the local kinder to the following statements of policy: “stop the boats” stop the “death
Here are the iron ore charts for September 17, 2015: While Qingdao did little, Tianjin benchmark rose 1.4% to $56.80. Paper was stable. Rebar bleeds on. Texture from Reuters: Chinese buying interest for the steelmaking commodity has slowed after spot prices rose last week to their highest since July. “Mills are talking lower price levels for
Brent oil slipped materially to $49.21 overnight, ironically much of the damage was done after the Fed decision as the US dollar fell. Growth worries have taken centre stage. Not much in news but some interesting material from Iran via Reuters: Iran, a member of the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), has some
Cross-posted from Investing in Chinese Stocks: Reuters: China banks’ Aug net FX sales jump to $127 bln, show outflows rising China’s banks sold a net 807 billion yuan ($126.8 billion) of foreign exchange on behalf of clients in August, up sharply from July’s 174 billion yuan, reinforcing signs of increased capital outflows in the wake
Global Macro/Markets The US interest rate dilemma – BBC Video Picketty is history says Morgan Stanley as labour supply shrinks globally – BI (interesting thesis) Rethinking government debt and sovereignty – Naked Capitalism Goldman Sachs sees long bear market in oil – Bloomberg Europe Ukraines quietly revolutionary debt restructuring – Beyondbrics On the edge of
by Angus Nicholson for Chris Weston, IG The Korean Won, one of the most sold currencies in Asia, is having an impressive day, rising 0.6% against the US dollar. The Aussie has also had a wild few days, rising 1.5% this week. It even touched $0.72 overnight, while only a week or two ago it
The miners and LNG white elephants are charging today on hopes of an easy Fed. BHP is leading the way up 3%: The pattern still looks like a rock solid down trend channel but recent action could be a falling megaphone presaging more short term strength. Any breakout could over $30 and do nothing to alter the
Not a headline you’ll see anywhere else is it? But it’s true over the last quarter, from COMMSEC: The explanation could be more ABS numberwang or it’s possible we’ve still got major projects scrambling to finish with more staff. Not over the year, though, from Bloxo: The future of out dynamic new economy right there:
From Platts: China Iron & Steel Association, comprising major steel mills, in its latest monthly analysis warned of price volatility in the iron ore market over September and October, due to uncertainties in steel production rates in the country. …Steel consumption in China typically peaks over September and October, partly because the weather starts to
