The Weather Man

National: Despite the cold, July 2015 is still dry for many.

Despite what seems to be weeks of fronts with widespread showers and rainbands widespread areas of the eastern, south east and south west regions have recorded well below average rainfall so far this month.

The potential for heavy falls to change this do not look very good although parts of the west coast and western Tasmania may see some moderate fall during next week but many other parts of the continent only have the next couple of days to pick up further falls with a high set to keep many areas of the mainland and eastern Tasmania dry from Monday to month's end.

Over the weekend a pool of very cold air will sweep through the south east states with snow to fairly low levels in Tasmania and Victoria. Snow could fall as far north as the central tablelands of New South Wales by Monday morning but there will be very limited moisture with the cold air so if it does snow the falls will be very light and probably be no more than a few flurries. The cold should be fairly short lived with temperatures rising a day or two after the cold air arrives.

National: Rainfall contracting south over the weekend.

After some decent rainfall this week and another burst of falls in New South Wales and Southern Queensland on Friday the general rainfall pattern is for a general contraction into the south east on Sunday before falls become patchy across the far south of the mainland on Monday with the only totals in excess of 5mm expected to be confined to the west of Tasmania.

One of the reasons the rainfall is contracting south is the introduction of cold and dry air behind a front reaching the south east through the weekend. This front will also trigger snow to low levels especially across Victoria and strong and gusty winds to the south east states with wind and weather warnings likely to be issued.

Beyond this a high should become the dominant feature with its stabilising influence keeping much of the continent dry although showers will redevelop along the coast of Queensland as winds tend onshore and showers will also redevelop in the west later Tuesday as the next front and trough approach the south west.

National: More rain as fronts cross the south.

More rainfall is forecast for the southern and eastern states in the next 3 days with some widespread moderate accumulated falls expected including today's rainfall. The last of three fronts arrives on Sunday but this will contain much drier and colder air with a big drop in maximum temperatures across the south east cities and snow to low levels but rainfall will be lighter and contract further south before clearing as a high becomes the dominant feature on the weather.

National: More rain as fronts cross the south.

More rainfall is forecast for the southern and eastern states in the next 3 days with some widespread moderate accumulated falls expected including today's rainfall. The last of three fronts arrives on Sunday but this will contain much drier and colder air with a big drop in maximum temperatures across the south east cities and snow to low levels but rainfall will be lighter and contract further south before clearing as a high becomes the dominant feature on the weather.

National: More fronts in the coming days with the coldest over the weekend

Three cold fronts will cross the south of the continent this week and weekend with the first, currently in South Australia triggering the more widespread and better of the rainfall, the second will be weaker but the third will introduce some very cold conditions but the air will be cold and dry so not a great deal of rainfall. Beyond that a high will move back over the south east states and a period of drier and frosty conditions will redevelop.

The run of cooler and wet conditions in the south west should continue although falls will not be as widespread or heavy as the last couple of days with drier and milder conditions returning by the weekend.

The current El Nino continues to build across the Pacific with all of the International forecast models projecting the El Nino to last until early 2016. This would tend to lead to a hotter and drier Spring and Summer for parts of the continent. Any assistance from the Indian Ocean remains unlikely with 3 of the 5 main forecast models indicating a positive Indian Ocean Dipole which would lead to reduced Spring rainfall in the south east states. Further details here http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/

National: More rain for the south east inland

A series of fronts and upper level disturbances will combine with some tropical moisture from both the Coral Sea and Indian Ocean to trigger some periods of rainfall about the ranges and slopes of Victoria and New South Wales in the coming week. A front on Wednesday will deliver some moderate falls with lighter rainfall with the next system on Friday and a potentially stronger and colder system arriving late in the weekend.

A couple of weak fronts will also clip the south west of Western Australia but they will not be as strong as the system of the last 24 hours with rainfall patchier and lighter.

Temperatures across much of the continent will be considerably milder than the past week due to a more tropical rather than polar influence although much colder air could redevelop late in the weekend behind a cold front.

National: Coldest week of the year comes to an end.

What should be the coldest week of the year across the eastern states is coming to an end as cold air moves into the Tasman Sea and a high returns much of the eastern and south east states back to sunnier conditions and close to average maximum temperatures. Overnight minimums will actually get colder for many areas a clear night and light winds allow frost to become widespread. By early next week a milder northerly wind flow will develop helping to push maximums above average in many areas.

Forecast models are suggesting a feed of tropical moisture from the Indian Ocean could feed into central and south eastern states next week but unlike this week the air mass will remain relatively mild. there is some variation between the forecast models although most suggest some rainfall over the eastern inland by mid next week but it is too early to gauge how much.

Rainfall in Western Australia will continue over the weekend about the south west but Sunday and Monday will see the more widespread and heavier falls as a stronger front crosses the region. 

National: Despite the cold and snow, natural snow depth remains relatively low in NSW

 

South Perisher Co-op Alpine Club Limited snow cam. http://www.southperisher.org.au/cam/

After just 4.5cm of snow on the ground on the 9th of July, recorded by the Snowy Hydro at Spencer's Creek in NSW, this week's cold blasts have only pushed the level to 55.1cm when measured today 16th July. There have been quite a few years where snow levels have been well below 1m at this point in the month and the yearly snow charts can be found here. http://www.habitatchalet.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2013/02/snow-depth-chart1.jpg There will be some more snow over the next 24 to 48 hours but conditions clear through the weekend as a high becomes the dominant feature across the Alpine areas.

A low developing off the coast of New South Wales will produce some locally moderate rainfall for parts of the Hunter, Sydney and Illawarra coast overnight and tomorrow with some strong and gusty winds near the coast and large and dangerous surf conditions. Rock fishing, swimming and boating are not recommended in the next 2 days until conditions abate through the weekend.

Over the next four days cold fronts will cross the south west of Western Australia with rain and showers and some potentially moderate to heavy falls about the far south west particularly with a front on Sunday and showers will push much further inland with this second system compared to tomorrows front.

Much of the remainder of the country will experience clearer conditions under a large high moving east with sunnier, warmer and drier conditions spreading across the south east states but frost will then become widespread through the mornings.

National: Mid Winter weather settles in for a few more days.

True Winter conditions will continue across the south east states with further cold nights and days although rainfall should become more isolated as we move through the weekend. Snow is likely along the length of the New South Wales Tablelands and higher parts of the slopes with snow over the northern half overnight Thursday and early Friday as the coldest air sweeps through and potentially some snow or sleet into southern Queensland. A high develops across the eastern states during the weekend helping to reintroduce sunshine into the south east states. http://media.bom.gov.au/releases/184/further-snow-forecast-for-the-new-south-wales-ranges/

As the front itself moves off the New South Wales coast overnight a low will form near the Central Coast and deliver a burst of heavier falls along the coast and ranges from about East Gippsland in Victoria to the Mid north Coast of New South Wales before easing and contracting to the coast during the weekend.

A cold front will cross the south west of Western Australia on Friday and Saturday with widespread rainfall but totals are expected to be quite light at this stage with most below 10mm. Another front and trough will approach the region later Sunday

National: Mid Winter chill to continue

As a the weekend low moves towards New Zealand another low will move over the south east states during Tuesday and Wednesday before moving into the southern Tasman Sea on Thursday. This low is not expected to be as strong as the last one but it will bring further light snowfalls to higher areas outside of the Alpine region and maintain cold Winter conditions across most of the south east and eastern states till the end of the week.

Moisture levels are also not as high with mostly light falls of rain across the south east until the low reaches the Tasman Sea when the moisture levels will increase and heavier falls develop about eastern Victoria and the southern and central coast and ranges of New South Wales and potentially as far inland as the ACT.

This and the recent low have combined with a large high in the west to push cold and dry air into much of Queensland and the Northern Territory with possible frost about the Atherton Tablelands and a run of days with maximums below 30 degrees in Darwin.