At the tenth IISS Manama Dialogue in Bahrain, Nigel Inkster, Director of Transnational Threats and Political Risk, discusses the resurgence of terrorism in Iraq and Syria. What the international community is facing is an immensely complex situation. Testament to this is the fact that organisation such as the Islamic State of Iraq and al-Sham (ISIS, or Daesh) - which is a conventional military force, a terrorist insurgency and a criminal organisation - has been able to take control of a significant swathe of territory in both Syria and Iraq. It has declared a caliphate, an incendiary action within the Islamic world and the ‘global jihadist community’, effectively amounting to a direct challenge to both the Taliban and to authority of the core of al-Qaeda. Dealing with this phenomenon is proving to be a considerable challenge. The US-led coalition is made up of some 60 states which are in various ways committed to denigrating and defeating Daesh, but these are countries with a wide range of agendas, priorities and capabilities. Bringing all these together into a coherent campaign plan in order to effectively deal with this threat is unsurprisingly problematic. Ultimately, says Inkster, it is accepted that this is a campaign that will have to be fought by ground troops in Iraq and eventually Syria. Gathering an offensive force with the sufficient combat capability, political will and morale is going to take time. Additionally, the issue of internal Iraqi politics cannot be ignored – Daesh has grown to such a size in part because it has been able to attract a large number of disenfranchised Iraqi Sunnis. Somehow an arrangement must be found by Baghdad which persuades the Sunnis to realign with the state and to reject Daesh – not a simple feat. Daesh has its base in Syria, meaning the issue of how to approach the Syria crisis is once again a priority. Several conundrums now present themselves – for example, Iran, which is aligned with the coalition against Daesh but which has been of monumental support to the Assad regime in Syria. An approach to resolving an issue such as this has not yet become apparent. Daesh is generating a huge amount of international publicity, and as well a great deal of support from young Muslims who are disenchanted, disenfranchised, or simply bored, and who are attracted by the prospect of a jihad adventure in Syria or Iraq. This creates a serious international dimension to the problem, namely the phenomenon of ‘blow back’ – jihadis trained in the Middle East who are then sent to carry out terrorist attacks in their country of origin. In facing such a situation, it is unlikely that swift solutions will present themselves. But at an event such as the Manama Dialogue, what can be achieved is a better understanding of the different positions of the actors involved.

• published: 06 Dec 2014
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