The European project, which was designed to bring lasting peace to the continent, is under threat. How? Through the insistence of elites that a common currency should be imposed, but under conditions that would make such a currency unviable. This may seem harsh, but consider the following questions: Hasn’t the euro experiment largely failed to meet the needs of the people who use it? Hasn’t the financial crisis torn apart any sense of common purpose in Europe, with the wealthier North pitted against the poorer South? Hasn’t the crisis proven that the common currency zone is incapable of withstanding significant negative demand shocks without imposing massive costs on the less advantaged, and without extraordinary interventions, such as bailouts, which arguably flout the original design principles? Yes, yes, and sadly yes. It is true, on one level, that the European Central Bank has been responsible for the continuation of the eurozone over the course of the crisis, with several national governments now dependent on the ECB buying their official paper in secondary bond markets at heavily discounted to par prices for their solvency. As soon as the ECB stops acting as a “fiscal agent” then the member states will go broke one after another. The European Monetary Union has failed as a monetary system and has been unable to unify Europe. Like Charlemagne’s religious unification, the “unity” that is tied up in the common currency is oppressive and will fail in the longer-term unless serious design changes are made to the system. In the current environment you have a solvency crisis, which is feeding into the banking system because a large proportion of their assets are euro-denominated government bonds. Going down the path of “voluntary” haircuts and forced recapitalizations will simply set off a massive debt deflation spiral. We will see bank’s fire-selling assets left and right – management will not issue equity at these miserably low price to book values. This, in turn, will depress economic activity even further, widen the very public deficits that are so exorcising the eurozone’s policy making elite, and bring us back to square one. Already the guns are being turned on Italy now that Greece is on the threshold of being “solved.” Clearly, a new approach is required. In this interview, Prof. Andrea Terzi of Franklin University in Switzerland readily acknowledges the flawed architecture at the heart of the eurozone and suggests that a more robust fiscal response is required. But, given the absence of a federal fiscal structure, he suggests that the ECB has been correct in responding to the EMU’s solvency mess by conducting large-scale bond purchases in the secondary market (which, unlike direct purchases of government debt, is not contrary to the Treaty of Maastricht rules) for the debt of the EMU nations. Why not go further? Terzi suggests a proposal whereby the ECB creates and then distribute trillions of euros annually to the national governments on a per capita basis. The per capita criteria would establish a program that is neither a targeted bailout nor a reward for bad behavior. In fact, as the largest economy, Germany would get the largest distribution of euros from the ECB. This distribution would immediately adjust national government debt ratios downward, which would in turn ease credit fears without triggering additional national government spending. The result would be to dramatically ease credit tensions and thereby foster normal functioning of the credit markets for the national government debt issues. Terzi discusses this and other innovative ideas in the interview.

• published: 09 Oct 2014
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