Politics is a cruel game, and there is a developing narrative from some in the Labour Party that next year’s general election campaign is in trouble. According to this sorry tale, all the money has been spent in Scotland, Ed didn’t make a good enough conference speech, and the party is either to rash or too cautious on policy depending on your preference. It is therefore worth stepping back and looking for some perspective.
First of all, while it is fashionable to nostalgically look back at the landslide of 1945, which with the benefit of hindsight was our greatest achievement, how did that election look before the event.
The 1944 conference had a particularly flat mood, as the party was pessimistic about its prospects. And the period of 1943 and 1944 had seen the party riven by factionalism. In 1943 the party had a furious row over the implementation of Beveridge that led to Ernest Bevin withdrawing entirely from party life, and effectively withdrawing the support from the biggest union, TGWU, from the party. This rift was not healed until March 1945. Bevin continued in government, but not as part of the Labour Party.
A considerable constituency in the party believed that a post-war election could not be won, and therefore the priority was to continue in coalition with Churchill to protect wartime gains. Party membership had declined from 428926 in 1938 to just 223929 by 1942. Most unions only affiliated 50% of their membership, and only 48% of union members volunteered to pay the levy: overall the number of trade union sponsored candidates in 1945 was lower than in 1935, declining from 51% to 31%. In most constituencies party organisation was attenuated or non-existent.
Furthermore, the relationship between the party and the unions was under constant attack from the left in this period. Nye Bevan argued that trade union funding was a poisoned chalice “no longer paying affiliation fees to the party” but “paying its burial expenses”.
In 1944 two separate editorials in the (at that time centre-left leaning) Economist argued that the Labour Party was finished, because the trade union base of the party tied it to “conservative sectional interests”, and what was needed was the end of the Labour Party, to be replaced by a new realignment of the left, including the Communist Party, the short lived wartime party called Common Wealth, and various progressive independents.
Nor was the future policy direction of the party uncontested. In hindsight, the achievements were massive, fulfilling the objective of full employment, so that by the end of 1946 a full 7.5 million people had been transferred from the military into civilian employment, and from then on unemployment stood at just 2%. The Trades Disputes Act, the punitive anti-union legislation introduced after the general strike, was abolished. A welfare state was established, and through selective nationalization, a mixed economy was created where the government had more levers to secure policy objectives.
At the time, the left in the party regarded the achievements as inadequate, and the centre right of the party maintained a majority on the then powerful NEC. Only with the benefit of hindsight did the 1945 government become associated with the left of the party.
The massive achievement of Major Attlee’s government was to shift the political consensus; however it is important to recognize that this was not achieved by prior agreement with the Conservatives and Liberals, but by implementing a transformative agenda which left the other parties no option other than to continue with that legacy.
The consensus endured until Margaret Thatcher’s government. And despite the considerable advances during the Blair and Brown governments, the continuing legacy of Thatcherism endures with an economic model which does not meet the needs of the majority of the population. Furthermore, there are many within the Labour Party who are still stuck back in 1997; and who think that minor policy differences with the Conservatives, spun to influence swing voters in marginal constituencies will deliver election victory. But we need more than election victory, we need a Labour government that will address the real life problems of ordinary people.
Indeed, we also have a political system that fails to articulate the interests of ordinary people. This is evidenced not only by the increasing professionalism of the political class, but by the increasing alienation of voters. It is reasonable to assume that at least some of the support for UKIP and Scottish independence reflects a deep disillusionment and cynicism that mainstream politics makes any difference to the lives of ordinary voters.
It is in this context that the left needs to approach next year’s general election. Despite the naysayers and cynics, Ed Miliband does “get it”. There is a need to change our political system and our economy to better serve the interests of ordinary people. To create a society that serves the interests not of bankers and multinational corporations, but of those who work, or who are retired, or want to work; of those who struggle to pay their bills, of those affected by the housing crisis, and of those affected by precarious employment.
If we fail, and we must not fail, to win a Labour government next year, then the Westminster based political class will see this as a signal to retreat back into managerialism, and return to the limits of the Thatcherite consensus.