National Health Expenditure Projections, 2013–23: Faster Growth Expected With Expanded Coverage And Improving Economy
- Andrea M. Sisko1,*,
- Sean P. Keehan2,
- Gigi A. Cuckler3,
- Andrew J. Madison4,
- Sheila D. Smith5,
- Christian J. Wolfe6,
- Devin A. Stone7,
- Joseph M. Lizonitz8 and
- John A. Poisal9
- 1Andrea M. Sisko (DNHS{at}cms.hhs.gov) is an economist in the Office of the Actuary at the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services (CMS), in Baltimore, Maryland.
- 2Sean P. Keehan is an economist in the CMS Office of the Actuary.
- 3Gigi A. Cuckler is an economist in the CMS Office of the Actuary.
- 4Andrew J. Madison is an actuary in the CMS Office of the Actuary.
- 5Sheila D. Smith is an economist in the CMS Office of the Actuary.
- 6Christian J. Wolfe is an actuary in the CMS Office of the Actuary.
- 7Devin A. Stone is an economist in the CMS Office of the Actuary.
- 8Joseph M. Lizonitz is an actuary in the CMS Office of the Actuary.
- 9John A. Poisal is deputy director of the National Health Statistics Group, CMS Office of the Actuary.
- ↵*Corresponding author
Abstract
In 2013 health spending growth is expected to have remained slow, at 3.6 percent, as a result of the sluggish economic recovery, the effects of sequestration, and continued increases in private health insurance cost-sharing requirements. The combined effects of the Affordable Care Act’s coverage expansions, faster economic growth, and population aging are expected to fuel health spending growth this year and thereafter (5.6 percent in 2014 and 6.0 percent per year for 2015–23). However, the average rate of increase through 2023 is projected to be slower than the 7.2 percent average growth experienced during 1990–2008. Because health spending is projected to grow 1.1 percentage points faster than the average economic growth during 2013–23, the health share of the gross domestic product is expected to rise from 17.2 percent in 2012 to 19.3 percent in 2023.
