Reality Check on Employment Numbers

On Friday, the big news was that the unemployment rate had fallen below 6 percent for the first time in six years. That’s swell news, but the headline unemployment rate tells us virtually nothing at all about the real employment situation. Since the unemployment rate is a function of both the labor force size and the total number of people who self-report as employed, we need to get a sense of both labor force dynamics and total employment. Below, I’m going to use the government’s own numbers, so keep in mind this data is the rosiest picture that BLS could credibly paint. I will not be using the so-called “seasonally adjusted” (SA) numbers, because they’re more heavily manipulated than the not-seasonally adjusted (NSA) numbers. Also, seasonal adjustment is simply unnecessary and adds  totally unnecessary complexity to the data. Everything I look at below is not adjusted, and is from the BLS.

Here’s the unemployment rate graph:

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The unemployment rate bottomed out near 4 percent during the last expansion (2002-2008), and it then shot up to over 10 percent. Ever since then, it’s been heading down steadily. The headline SA number for September 2014 was 5.9 percent, and in this case the NSA number was even lower, at 5.7 percent for September. That’s down from a year earlier, when the rate was 7.0 percent.

How great! What a big drop. We’re finally back to what was ten years ago considered a mediocre unemployment rate. But it’s better than ten percent, right?

Sure, it’s better, but what really matters, in terms of the unemployment-stats game is how much actual employment opportunity there is. The fact of the matter is, the total number of employed persons in the US has gone basically nowhere since 2007.  We see this if we look at the components of the unemployment rate, which are the labor force size and the total number of employment persons. This is the Household Survey, which means that the data is based on surveys of actual persons who are asked if they want to be employed, and if they have actually managed to find employment. People who have given up looking for work, or gone back to school, or just accepted a lower standard of living because they’re premature retirees who’ve given up permanently, are all excluded from the labor force. So, looking at the components of the unemployment rate, we see:

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When the gap between the two lines is big, the unemployment rate is high. And when the gap is small, the unemployment rate is smaller. It’s perfectly possible to get a decline in the unemployment rate without adding any new jobs at all. All you need to have is a decline in the size of the labor force. We saw this at work back in 2010 and 2011, when the unemployment rate was dropping, but employment growth was near-stagnant. This was because the labor force size fell slightly, in spite of the fact that 3.3 million people continued to graduate from high school each year. Did 100% of them go to college full time? And what happened to all the people who graduated from college in those years? Well, they apparently didn’t enter the labor force. Labor force growth continues to be anemic, and it’s certainly not just because baby boomers are retiring. Many people are simply electing to leave the work force for a variety of reasons, including declines in opportunities for work. Many critics of the administration have correctly pointed to the fact that labor force participation is at very low levels.

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The Politics of “Free” Trade Agreements

Protesters Demonstrate Against WTO - Day 3Mises Daily Tuesday by Carmen Elena Dorobăț:

Anyone reading modern day trade agreements would not be surprised to discover that they focus less and less on reducing import duties, and more on developing national industries, promoting exports, and ensuring domestic policy space.

 

What the Feds and Bernie Madoff Have in Common

6912Mises Daily Tuesday by Brandon Dutcher.

Not unlike governments, ponzi schemer Bernie Madoff used his victims’ money to exhibit his “generosity” through charitable giving projects.

 

Small Business Administration Loans Reduce Economic Growth

140px-US-SmallBusinessAdmin-Seal.svgThat’s the conclusion of a new NBER paper by Andy Young, Matthew Higgins, Don Lacombe, and Briana Sell, “The Direct and Indirect Effects of Small Business Administration Lending on Growth: Evidence from U.S. County-Level Data” (ungated version here). “We find evidence that a county’s SBA lending per capita is associated with direct negative effects on its income growth. We also find evidence of indirect negative effects on the growth rates of neighboring counties. Overall, a 10% increase in SBA loans per capita is associated with a cumulative decrease in income growth rates of about 2%.” As the authors point out, SBA loans represent funds that also have alternative uses, and SBA-sponsored clients may not be the most worthy recipients (in terms of generating economic growth).

The results are largely robust and, perhaps more importantly, we never find any evidence of positive growth effects associated with SBA lending. Even when the estimated effects are statistically insignificant, the point estimates are always negative. Our findings suggest that SBA lending to small businesses comes at the cost of loans that would have otherwise been made to more profitable and/or innovative firms. Furthermore, SBA lending in a given county results in negative spillover effects on income growth in neighboring counties. Given the popularity of pro-small business policies, our findings should give reason for policymakers and their constituents to reevaluate their priors.

Highest-Earning College Majors

A new report on career earnings by college major is making the rounds. Engineering majors make the most, with economics the highest of the social sciences, and even ahead of business. However, as a Slate report points out, if you look at the upper tail of the distribution, economics majors do even better than engineering majors — the highest-earning economics majors do much better than the highest-earning engineering majors. The result holds even when you consider the fact that many economics majors go on to law or business school or enter other graduate programs. Slate thinks the answer is that “the finance and consulting industries like recruiting [economics majors], not necessarily for their specific skills, but because they consider the major a basic intelligence test.”

Of course, the data don’t distinguish between students of Austrian, Keynesian, Marxian, and neoclassical economics, but I know what I’d choose as an intelligence test!

An economics major.

An economics major.

 

 

Mises Weekends with Joseph Becker: Economic Liberty Denied

Jeff Deist and Joseph Becker discuss the illusion of judicial remedies for most Americans; how Becker is attacking cronyism in Nevada; how a Rothbardian legal system might deal with torts, crimes, and externalities; and how the statist 20th century courts created a phony legal distinction between fundamental liberties and economic liberties.

Also available at Mises.org and Stitcher.

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Sports Stadiums: Temples to Crony Capitalism

stadium in lightsMises Daily Friday by Salmaan Khan:

Although it’s clear that they offer no economic net benefit, American cities are building taxpayer-funded sports stadiums every chance they get. Billionaire team owners and politicians benefit greatly while ordinary taxpayers do less well.

 

Hayek: 40 Years After the Nobel

Friedrich_Hayek_portraitThe Mercatus Center at George Mason University organized an event yesterday at the 40th anniversary of FA Hayek winning the Sveriges Riksbank Prize in Economic Sciences in Memory of Alfred Nobel (the economics “Nobel Prize”). This great event included a keynote address by Professor Israel Kirzner with the title “Hayek, the Nobel Prize, and the Modern Austrian School of Economics” and a roundtable discussion on Hayek’s influence with Nobel laureates Eric Maskin, and Vernon Smith.

Professor Kirzner’s talk provided a revised history of the Austrian school, arguing that the common perception of a school that more or less “died” after the Socialist Calculation Debate and was then resurrected some three decades later is wrong. On the contrary, Kirzner argued that the “decade 1937-1948″ was one of great scholarly activity by Austrians, and especially Mises and Hayek. This scholarship was primarily aimed at providing better explanations for the Misesian argument that a centrally planned, socialist economy is impossible. Neither Mises nor Hayek changed or adjusted the original argument, but took different paths to elaborate on and explain the argument that the “market socialists” had so fundamentally failed to understand. Read More→

Housing Bubble on the Thames

With London England the new place to be for oil-rich Russian oligarchs and Middle Eastern sheiks, the question going around is whether house prices are in a bubble. Despite a brief blip down with the credit crunch in 2007-08, prices are back and higher than ever.

london real estate

The ever-entertaining Tim Harford chimed in recently with a very sensible opinion that economists have a very difficult time identifying what, exactly, constitutes a “bubble.”

One way to look at whether prices are “fair” (short of the obvious answer that “they must be if someone is voluntarily willing to pay the price”) is to look at the price of the foregone alternative.

In the housing market you either rent or own. We can compare the cost of renting an abode with that of purchasing it outright to see whether property values are fairly valued. By this measure homes in the US and Japan, according to Harford, are reasonably priced by historical norms while in London they are about 1/3 over-valued.

Fair enough, but what if the price of rents is also unusually high? After all, the central banks of the world have been pumping aggressively for the past five years. The reason was to keep spending going. One result is that by keeping the printing press running all prices are higher than should otherwise be the case.

At the end of the day, it could be that both housing prices and rents are overvalued! Perhaps it is because cheap credit induces more people to live alone than would otherwise be the case, or in bigger houses than are necessary, or in locations (like London) that wouldn´t be sustainable without such easy credit.

(Cross posted at Mises Canada.)

The Road to Poverty Is Paved with Small Inflations

900px-Flag_of_Venezuela_(state).svgThe value of Venezuela’s currency plummeted to record lows on the black market last week, with 100 ‘strong’ bolivars exchanging for $1 (ten times lower than the official rate), and annual price inflation reaching 63%. Chavez’s successor Nicolas Maduro, continuing to denounce the “capitalist economic war” on his socialist regime, now blames airlines for trying to collect ticket revenues the government isn’t able to pay. Meanwhile, the Venezuelan economy is showing symptoms of a rapidly forming crack-up boom: shortage of basic amenities, power outages, depletion of dollar reserves by 30%, and looming debt default. As people scramble to exchange paper money for anything and everything that can still be found on store shelves, “over there”—say their Columbian neighbors just across the border—“there’s no food.”

The ‘final and total catastrophe of the currency system’—as Mises called the terminus point of any sustained inflation—was in fact brewing in Venezuela long before Maduro’s regime, and the country experienced even higher price inflation in late 1990s. But because people held the belief that prices might fall at some point in the future, and continued to increase or maintain their cash balances, the earlier stages of the inflationary process were drawn out over many years. However, two Caracas entrepreneurs have warned that it is now too late for the government to salvage anything: “people clearly haven’t had confidence in [the bolivar] for decades; and even less now… It doesn’t look like the market has much confidence in the government’s ability to get things under control”.

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Peter Klein in Madrid

Peter Klein was recently in Spain at a conference of the Strategic Management Society and gave a guest lecture in Jesús Huerta de Soto’s class. Tyler Xiong Yue, a Master’s degree student studying under Huerta de Soto, and a translator of many Mises Institute lectures, sent along some photos:

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Klein and Yue in Madrid.

Ron Paul on Secession and War

Ron Paul talks with Alan Colmes about secession in Iraq, Ukraine, and the US, plus the latest developments in the war in Syria and Iraq.

Scotland and the Hoppean Blueprint for Secession

glasgow2Mises Daily Thursday by Andrei Kreptul

In its secession effort, Scotland should have employed the methods recommended by Hans-Hermann Hoppe. That is, it should have been done in a decentralized and piecemeal fashion. However, such efforts would have required the Scots to abandon their welfare state.

Against the State: An Interview with Lew Rockwell

fasci2John Whitehead of the Rutherford Institute talks with Lew Rockwell about his new book, the state, war, police, and education.

Kirchener to Investors: “You’re Meanies for Lending Me Money”

download (10)Well, she didn’t actually say that, but she might as well have. Her position is that the investors who loaned her regime money are now “terrorists” for wanting to be repaid, noting, in a speech at the United Nations, that “terrorists are also those who destabilize a country’s economy through speculation.”

Of course, Argentina wouldn’t even have needed those investors if the government had simply stuck to spending only what it collected in tax revenues. Instead, over the past decade, Argentina has been on a spending spree.

Kirchener, when she made these remarks, was perhaps anticipating Monday’s legal development in which Argentina was declared in contempt of court for refusing to pay its debts.

Now, as Christopher Westley has shown, the Argentinian state should just default on its debt, since the taxpayers have been abused enough at this point, and should not continue to be on the hook to pay for the state’s profligacy. And Argentina is indeed in the process of defaulting. But Kirchner wants to default and still be legally not in default, so that the next spending spree can get started all the sooner.

For more:

Understanding Argentina’s Coming Default by Nicolás Cachanosky 

Confiscatory Deflation: The Case of Argentina by Joseph T. Salerno

Myths and Lessons of the Argentine “Currency Crisis” by Joseph T. Salerno

Argentina’s Politicians Should Read Mises by Iván Carrino

Argentina’s Paper-Money Mire by Grant M. Nülle

Greenspan on Gold (again)

alan_greenspan22Alan Greenspan once vigorously defended the gold standard, before taking command of the world’s largest printing press. Now back in civilian life, and lacking any opportunity to put his professed principles into action, Alan is again friendly to gold:

The broader issue — a return to the gold standard in any form — is nowhere on anybody’s horizon. It has few supporters in today’s virtually universal embrace of fiat currencies and floating exchange rates. Yet gold has special properties that no other currency, with the possible exception of silver, can claim. For more than two millennia, gold has had virtually unquestioned acceptance as payment. It has never required the credit guarantee of a third party. No questions are raised when gold or direct claims to gold are offered in payment of an obligation; it was the only form of payment, for example, that exporters to Germany would accept as World War II was drawing to a close. Today, the acceptance of fiat money — currency not backed by an asset of intrinsic value — rests on the credit guarantee of sovereign nations endowed with effective taxing power, a guarantee that in crisis conditions has not always matched the universal acceptability of gold.

The September Issue of The Free Market is Now Online!

septfmThe September issue of The Free Market, the Mises Institute’s monthly is now online!

September’s issue features a new book review from David Gordon, and on the 100th anniversary of World War I, Hunt Tooley reflects on modern views of the war:

In his new book Money, Steve Forbes offers a new scheme for tying the dollar to gold.  But, of course, things are not what they seem, and in the Forbes plan, there is no true gold standard to be found. David Gordon writes:

Imagine that someone wrote an eloquent book about price and wage controls. The book showed how attempts to control prices led to economic disaster. Faced with an abundance of incontrovertible evidence that demonstrated the bad effects of these measures, an informed policymaker would find only one rational choice available to him. He should not impose comprehensive price controls but rather should use controls in moderation. Would it not be obvious what had gone wrong with our imagined book? If price controls do not work, they should be done away with altogether. “Moderation” in the use of a bad measure is no virtue. If cyanide is poison, “drink in small doses” is not the appropriate response. Money falls exactly into the bad pattern just described.

Also in this issue, historian T. Hunt Tooley examines how historians’  views of the First World War have varied greatly over time. Dr. Tooley looks in detail at how the written history of the war has evolved, and the role of Austrian economists in shaping those views:

Mises really offered the revisionist school a theoretical framework which had been missing. He also encouraged many students in this direction, including Murray N. Rothbard and Ralph Raico. Rothbard contributed very substantially to the field of technical studies of World War I as he folded the theory of Mises into the older revisionist school. His works on war collectivism, “war as fulfillment,” the financial history of the war, and other topics stand at center stage in modern paleo-revisionism.

Indeed, Rothbard really expanded the agenda of revisionism to encompass a variety of new topics in intellectual, economic, and social history relative to the first conflict. Along with Mises, Rothbard took revisionism in a direction away from the unqualified support of Germany under the Kaiser, a kind of caricature position in which some revisionists had become stuck. Rothbard critiqued the state as state, including the German version of it.

And don’t miss our round-up of this year’s exciting Mises University.

War is Good for the Economy: Defense Stocks Soar

1280px-US_Navy_020712-N-5471P-010_EOD_teams_detonate_expired_ordnance_in_the_Kuwaiti_desertWell, war is good for certain sectors of the economy. For example: weapons manufacturing. Taxpayers and holders of US dollars won’t fare quite as well.

Writes Bloomberg:

Led by Lockheed Martin Corp. (LMT), the biggest U.S. defense companies are trading at record prices as shareholders reap rewards from escalating military conflicts around the world.

Investors see rising sales for makers of missiles, drones and other weapons as the U.S. hits Islamic State fighters in Syria and Iraq, said Jack Ablin, chief investment officer at Chicago-based BMO Private Bank. President Barack Obama approved open-ended airstrikes this month while ruling out ground combat.

“As we ramp up our military muscle in the Mideast, there’s a sense that demand for military equipment and weaponry will likely rise,” said Ablin, who oversees $66 billion including Northrop Grumman Corp. (NOC) and Boeing Co. (BA) shares. “To the extent we can shift away from relying on troops and rely more heavily on equipment — that could present an opportunity.”

Basically, it’s party time at places like Lockheed Martin where highly paid engineers live off the sweat of the taxpayers to develop more efficient ways to kill people 10,000 miles away. The idea of a war with few American casualties, but with incredibly expensive weaponry, is a crony capitalist’s dream come true. Politically, there’s no down side, from their perspective. Voters don’t care about dead Arabs, and with so few American personnel likely to be killed, there’s virtually limitless potential for the defense industry in this open-ended conflict. Thousands of bombs, each costing $250,000 will be dropped, with thousands more rolling off the production lines.

Thanks to the central bank and American enthusiasm for limitless spending on wars, there’s no better business than the war business. In fact, with election season right around the corner, watch for conservatives to be claiming that the administration isn’t spending enough on war.

 

Uncle Sam´s Annual Borrowing 14 Times Worse Than Thought

SONY DSCLots of people like to concentrate on the deficit when looking at public finances. In 2013, he federal government of the United States ran a budget deficit of $614 billion, which is quite a bit, but seemingly small relative to the $17 trillion economy. (Though as I recently showed, if you want to understand how precarious public finances are you should assess them relative to tax receipts and not a country´s total income.)

David Stockman´s recent article raises a whole new reason to be scared.

The actual amount of borrowing that the federal government did in 2013 was over $8 trillion! Because so much of Uncle Sam´s debt is of a short-term nature, it is necessary for the federal government to continue seeking the kindness of strangers to keep its debt rolled over.

Since total federal tax receipts amount to just shy of $2 trillion last year, the government needed to borrow four times more than its annual “income” just to stay afloat.

The problem is not just that the total amount of public debt outstanding is high, or that the yearly deficit adding to this debt is significant. It´s that so much debt is of a short-term nature, which necessitates the Treasury to continually seek out new borrowers. The risk is that one day borrowers will demand more than the paltry interest rates T-Bills are currently yielding, a situation that would result in either a terrible auction at low rates or significantly higher interest charges. I can´t really see Uncle Sam liking either of these options.

(Cross posted at Mises Canada.)

Subsidies, Market Prices, and the 2014 Farm Bill

farm2Mises Daily Wednesday by Dick Clark:

2014’s new US Farm Bill eliminates many direct subsidies to farmers, while replacing them with subsidized insurance programs. This will lead to higher costs for taxpayers and distorted markets in the future.