- published: 30 Jan 2016
- views: 1977922
A prediction or forecast is a statement about the way things will happen in the future, often but not always based on experience or knowledge. While there is much overlap between prediction and forecast, a prediction may be a statement that some outcome is expected, while a forecast may cover a range of possible outcomes.
Although guaranteed information about the information is in many cases impossible, prediction is necessary to allow plans to be made about possible developments; Howard H. Stevenson writes that prediction in business "... is at least two things: Important and hard."
Prediction is closely related to uncertainty. Reference class forecasting was developed to eliminate or reduce uncertainty in prediction.
The etymology of prediction is Latin (præ-, "before," and dicere, "to say").
Outside the rigorous context of science, prediction is often confused with informed guess or opinion.
A prediction of this kind might be (inductively) valid if the predictor is a knowledgeable person in the field and is employing sound reasoning and accurate data. Large corporations invest heavily in this kind of activity to help focus attention on possible events, risks and business opportunities, using futurists. Such work brings together all available past and current data, as a basis to develop reasonable expectations about the future.
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