Jeremiah S. Pam 22 Mar 2015 Journal of Political Risk Webcast – 23 Mar 2015 at 7:30 PM Prof. Jeremy Pam on DoD Strategy and Planning Reform Background • While the challenges of the post-9/11 strategic environment and the contemporary upsurge in civil-military “complex operations” have produced many documents and speeches presenting themselves as “strategy,” few of these have been truly strategic in Sun Tzu’s sense of an approach based on realistic, prioritized assessments of both our capabilities and the local environment. • Instead, our strategies all too often resemble a ‘wish list’ of all the things we’d like to achieve if there were no practical resource, coordination and implementation constraints, or simply compile the preferred approaches of all the national and international organizations involved in drafting the strategy. (Cf. the Obama Administration’s Feb 2015 “U.S. National Security Strategy.) • The critical element missing is neither a civilian counterpart to military planning processes nor a comprehensive manual for strengthening weak states (of which there already exist decent models). Argument • Instead, what’s needed is the bolstering of a conception of strategy that emphasizes the necessity of choosing the few most salient elements from the many possible activities for strengthening a weak state. On this conception of strategy, such choices must be made on the basis of realistic assessments of local context (e.g., what problems are most important and what efforts are most likely to be sustained), U.S./international capabilities (e.g., what objectives and activities a diverse group of international actors can agree on) and overall implementability (e.g., what initiatives can be executed and produce results). • To inculcate such a conception of strategy for future civil-military complex operations, the USG needs to develop a new approach to the professional education of senior civilian and military leaders.  While this effort might begin by first targeting specific agencies individually, to be effective it would eventually have to become an interagency initiative. Some Recent References Anthony Cordesman, Strategy, Grand Strategy, and the Emperor’s New Clothes (CSIS, 17 Mar 2015) Steven Metz, To Create Order, the U.S. Needs a Strategic Vision (WPR, 12 Dec 2014) Steven Metz, U.S. Planners Must Start Preparing for Strategic Disaster (WPR, 9 Jul 2014) Steven Metz, Saving America’s Strategic Visionaries (WPR, 2 Apr 2014) Steven Metz, End of War Footing Leaves American Strategy at a Loss (WPR, 5 Feb 2014) Steven Metz, With Small Cuts, U.S. Undermining Its Ability to Think Big (WPR, 23 Oct 2013) Steven Metz, Why Aren’t Americans Better at Strategy? (WPR, 16 Oct 2013) Michael Mazarr, The Risks of Ignoring Strategic Insolvency (Washington Quarterly, Fall 2012) Jeremiah S. Pam, The Paradox of Complexity (NATO Defense College, Jul 2010) Hy Rothstein, Less is More (Third World Quarterly, Mar 2007)

• published: 24 Mar 2015
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