March 10, 2014


Did Bush Cost Republicans an Entire Generation?

Kevin Drum: "You've probably seen this before from other sources, but the chart... basically shows that for the past 40 years voting patterns haven't differed much by age. In fact, there's virtually no difference between generations at all until you get to the George Bush era. At that point, young voters suddenly leave the Republican Party en masse. Millennials may be far less likely than older generations to say there's a big difference between Republicans and Democrats, but their actual voting record belies that."

"Whatever it was that Karl Rove and George Bush did--and there are plenty of possibilities, ranging from Iraq to gays to religion--they massively alienated an entire generation of voters. Sure, they managed to squeak out a couple of presidential victories, but they did it at the cost of losing millions of voters who will probably never fully return. This chart is their legacy in a nutshell."


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Broun Leads GOP Pack for Senate Nod

A new Public Policy Polling survey in Georgia finds Rep. Paul Broun (R) leading the GOP Senate primary race with 27%, followed by Rep. Phil Gingrey (R) at 14%, Rep. Jack Kingston (R) at 13%, David Perdue (R) at 12% and Karen Handel (R) at 9%.

In head-to-head matchups, with Michelle Nunn (D) and Broun were tied at 38%, while Nunn with slight leads over Kingston, Handel and Gingrey.


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Most Young Republicans Favor Gay Marriage

Pew Research: "Today, 61% of Republicans and Republican leaners under 30 favor same-sex marriage while just 35% oppose it. By contrast, just 27% of Republicans ages 50 and older favor allowing gays and lesbians to marry."


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Who's the Guy in the Bathtub?

The Huffington Post has photos of Rep. Steve Stockman (R-TX) drinking "at a hotel party next to a man lounging in a bathtub."

Dave Weigel has a report from the party.


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McConnell Looks Safe in Primary

A new Public Opinion Strategies (R) poll in Kentucky finds Sen. Mitch McConnell (R-KY) holds a massive lead over primary challenger Matt Bevin (R), 61% to 23%.


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Christie in Better Shape Than You Think

Joshua Green: "For all the bad press over Bridgegate, Christie hasn't been abandoned by party leaders or major donors. True, some conservatives don't like him. But the media's criticism has prompted others to rally behind him. His CPAC reception hardly left the impression that he's unacceptable to the base. All things considered, Christie may be better positioned to win the Republican nomination than he was a year ago."

"As for that poll of Republicans swearing up and down they'd never vote for him? Don't believe it. In 2011, Gallup found that 26 percent of Republicans would "definitely not vote for" Mitt Romney, who, of course, went on to win the nomination and the vote of just about every Republican in the country."


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Extra Bonus Quote of the Day

"Oh, I'm probably .01 percent."

-- Illinois gubernatorial candidate Bruce Rauner (R), quoted by the Chicago Sun Times, when asked if he was among the one percent of wealthiest Americans.


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Bonus Quote of the Day

"I don't think there's really this vast civil war in the Republican Party that like many in the left suggest there is. I think we're a party with a vibrant debate, adding ideas, solving problems, and I think that's going to be -- I think we're going to be okay."

-- Rep. Paul Ryan (R-WI), quoted by Huffington Post.


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Christie Aides Ask Judge to Throw Out Subpoenas

"Two figures in a political payback plot that has overshadowed New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie's (R) administration will attempt to convince a judge that they shouldn't be forced to turn over documents to a legislative panel," the AP reports.

"Lawyers for former Christie campaign manager Bill Stepien and fired Deputy Chief of Staff Bridget Kelly have asked the judge to throw out their subpoenas. They say handing over personal emails, text messages and planning calendars would be like testifying against themselves."


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Clinton Hires McAuliffe Aide

"Hillary Clinton is bringing on Terry McAuliffe's political director from his successful gubernatorial run as a scheduler based in her personal office in New York," Politico reports.


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Brown Allies Signalling He'll Run

Former Sen. Scott Brown (R-MA) and key allies "are suddenly sending signals he intends to jump into the 2014 Senate race in New Hampshire," CNN reports.

"Brown has been debating for months about whether to challenge Democratic incumbent Jeanne Shaheen, torn, friends say, about whether he should instead run for president in 2016, or just forgo running for elective office again. Well a number of GOP sources in New Hampshire report receiving calls in recent days from Brown or his top allies, and there's word from GOP operatives that there are conversations about building a Senate campaign staff."


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Is Obamacare Working?

Wonk Wire: "The uninsured rate for almost every major demographic group has dropped in 2014 so far [and] across all age groups ... except for those aged 65 and older."

Also on Wonk Wire: Who is most likely to hate Obamacare?


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Branstad Still Ahead in Iowa

A new Des Moines Register poll in Iowa shows Gov. Terry Branstad (R) well head of challenger Jack Hatch (D) in the race for governor, 44% to 29%.


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Quote of the Day

"You know things are bad at CNN when they say they may go to a print edition."

-- Former Florida Gov. Charlie Crist (D), quoted by Politico.


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Paul Says Privacy Focus Would Attract Young Voters

Sen. Rand Paul (R-KY) said the Republican Party "would win more support from young voters by highlighting what he says are violations of privacy by the federal government, including the National Security Agency's surveillance programs," Bloomberg reports.

Said Paul: "It's a message that can grow the party, and the party's got to grow bigger or we're not going to win again."


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Worst Congress Ever?

"Democrats and Republicans alike say the 113th Congress is shaping up to be the worst ever," The Hill reports.

"Veteran lawmakers are used to partisanship and stalemate, but they say Capitol Hill has sunk to a new dysfunctional low. Congress has in some ways already closed for business until after the mid-term election. Any laws made between now and November will be minor."

The Week: Can we overcome our current dysfunction?


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Cruz Distances Himself from Paul on Foreign Policy

Sen. Ted Cruz (R-TX) told ABC News that Sen. Rand Paul (R-KY) is a friend but they strongly disagree on foreign policy.

Said Cruz: "I'm a big fan of Rand Paul. He and I are good friends. But I don't agree with him on foreign policy. I think U.S. leadership is critical in the world. And I agree with him that we should be very reluctant to deploy military force abroad. But I think there is a vital role, just as Ronald Reagan did... The United States has a responsibility to defend our values."

The Week: Can Rand Paul avoid the Neville Chamberlain trap?


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Florida is Testing Ground for Midterm Strategies

First Read: "While it's important never to overstate the importance of a single special congressional election, tomorrow's race in Florida will tell us a lot about the power of the Republican Party's health-care attacks on Democrats could have in 2014."

Washington Post: "The Tampa Bay peninsula will serve as the first real test of 2014 voter moods on Tuesday in a down-to-the-wire congressional race that each side is using to hone its messages for November. Republicans, returning to their 2010 and 2012 model, are trying to turn Democrat Alex Sink into a clone of President Obama and House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi (D-CA), focusing heavily on Obama's health-care law. Democrats, for the first time since the law's bungled rollout last fall, are fighting back with a defense of the law that accuses Republican David Jolly of wanting to repeal the Affordable Care Act and 'take us back' to the era when preexisting conditions could lead to a denial of health insurance."


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Asking Hillary the Question

New York Times: "As speculation grows about whether Mrs. Clinton will run for president again, in 2016, so too has a political parlor game of coming up with creative variations on the same question. The standard will-you-run inquiry no longer suffices. They come up at almost all of Mrs. Clinton's many paid talks to trade groups, events related to her charitable work and at galas and awards ceremonies."


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March 09, 2014


The Tea Party May Not Be a Factor in 2016

National Interest: "The common wisdom holds that the GOP 2016 presidential race will boil down to a joust between the 'establishment' and the 'insurgents.' ... It has only one small problem. It is wrong."

"Exit and entrance polls of Republican primaries and caucuses going back to 1996 show that the Republican presidential electorate is remarkably stable. It does not divide neatly along establishment-versus-conservative lines. Rather, the GOP contains four discrete factions that are based primarily on ideology, with elements of class and religious background tempering that focus. Open nomination contests during this period are resolved first by how candidates become favorites of each of these factions, and then by how they are positioned to absorb the voting blocs of the other factions as their favorites drop out."


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Romney Reunites With 2012 Staff

Mitt Romney "has invited his debate prep advisers and senior campaign aides to his mountaintop chalet in Park City, Utah, for a weekend of skiing later this month," the Washington Post reports.

"The reunion of Romney's political brain trust comes amid a burst of positive buzz about the former Massachusetts governor -- from favorable reviews of "MITT," the Netflix documentary about his campaigns, to chatter among some powerful GOP donors about another Romney presidential campaign in 2016."

"But Romney has been adamant in saying he will not run for president a third time. And his aides insisted this month's reunion in Park City is not a 2016 strategy session."


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Obama Warns Democrats About Midterm Elections

Associated Press: "Democrats could get walloped in the November elections. The party gets sleepy and distracted in the midterms. And its supporters simply may not show up to vote."

"Those aren't hopeful predictions from Republicans. They're the dire warnings of President Obama, who is seeking to gin up enthusiasm for the midterm elections from party activists already looking toward the 2016 race to replace him."

Said Obama: "I hope that just because I'm not on the ballot that people aren't going to take it easy this time, because the ideas I care about and am fighting for are on the ballot."


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Quote of the Day

"Well all I would say is what I was saying earlier in the week was simply that I thought that in the middle of a major international crisis that some of the criticism - domestic criticism of the President ought to be toned down while he's trying to handle this crisis. My own view is, after all, Putin invaded Georgia when George W. Bush was president. Nobody ever accused George W. Bush of being weak or unwilling to use military force."

-- Former Defense Secretary Robert Gates, in an interview on Fox News.


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Palin Closes Out CPAC

The Conservative Political Action Conference ended with a speech from Sarah Palin that was interrupted with chants of "Run Sarah Run."

It's definitely worth watching.

See more...


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Clinton Super PAC Gears Up

"This weekend is a big one for the juggernaut Hillary Clinton for President shadow campaign. Ready for Hillary, the super PAC building her grassroots army-in-waiting, swarmed Iowa's Democratic county conventions with 250 volunteers to sign up new supporters on Saturday, offering buttons and bumper stickers in return for valuable voter contact information," Time reports.

"The group's website is getting a big makeover this weekend, complete with two elements that symbolize how the backers of Clinton '16 are borrowing as much as they can from the triumphal Obama campaigns."


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