WASHINGTON — President Obama brought his top Afghanistan commanders to the Oval Office on Tuesday to discuss the way forward in a war he is determined to end by the end of the year, even as he finds himself stymied by an unreliable partner and an uncertain future. Increasingly vexed by Hamid Karzai, Afghanistan's president, Mr. Obama is trying to figure out what form a residual force might take after the bulk of American troops leave by December and what would happen if no Americans stayed behind at all. The debate has rekindled some of the tensions within the administration that divided it in its early days. With Mr. Karzai reinforcing Washington's view of him as an erratic ally, skeptics of the administration's Afghan strategy are increasingly open to withdrawing entirely at the end of 2014. Some in Mr. Obama's civilian circle suspect that his generals may be trying to manipulate him with an all-or-nothing approach to a residual force. Military officials say they are trying to leave options open and are themselves more ambivalent than ever about staying. The internal dynamics involved in the review, described by a variety of current and former White House, administration and military officials, are complicating what could be one of the most important decisions Mr. Obama makes this year. The president wants to avoid a repeat of what has happened in Iraq, which is again under siege, and yet he considers extricating the United States from Afghanistan a signature achievement for his legacy. "The question is: The lessons of Iraq, are they transferable to Afghanistan?" asked Barry Pavel, a former defense policy adviser to Mr. Obama. "Will the same risks emerge? That's got to be a daunting, overhanging question for the administration." While Mr. Obama promised in his State of the Union address last week that "we will complete our mission" in Afghanistan this year and that "America's longest war will finally be over," any hopes for a relatively clean exit have grown dimmer by the day. Dysfunction reigns in Kabul. American aid dollars have disappeared. Terrorism suspects may be released from Afghan prisons. And Mr. Karzai has refused to sign an agreement for a residual force beyond December, and instead has been fruitlessly contacting the Taliban about peace talks that have yet to materialize. While Washington has long been frustrated by Mr. Karzai, what little patience remains has ebbed in recent weeks as he blamed American forces for terrorist attacks on civilians, threatened to release prisoners deemed dangerous by the international coalition and likened the United States to a "colonial power." As James B. Cunningham, the American ambassador to Afghanistan, said in Kabul last week, what makes the United States' stance toward Mr. Karzai different now "is that he is coming to the end of his presidency, and we have some very important milestones for the international community and for Afghanistan coming up in the next couple months." Indeed, Mr. Karzai has missed several deadlines set by the Obama administration to sign a bilateral security agreement permitting a small post-2014 force to train Afghan troops and conduct counterterrorism operations. Facing a NATO meeting of defense ministers later this month where it had hoped to secure allied commitments beyond 2014, the White House is trying to figure out its plan. But officials in Washington are increasingly resigned to having to wait until after the Afghan presidential election in April to deal with Mr. Karzai's successor instead. The exasperation with Mr. Karzai has grown so strong that even Senator Lindsey Graham, Republican of South Carolina, one of the most ardent supporters of the American partnership with Afghanistan, warned last week that he might push Congress to cut off all development aid. "Here's what he needs to understand: I've been going to Afghanistan for years; I believe in the partnership," Mr. Graham said. "This idea of trying to squeeze more out of us has got to stop. There is no more to be squeezed. I don't think he understands how easy it would be for a politician in America to sever this relationship." Mr. Graham was especially incensed by a plan to release 37 suspected Taliban

• published: 09 Feb 2014
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