Todays heat to 3pm
In stark contast a very wet February so far in the Tropics.
Flood, Cyclone, Wind and Fire weather warnings in place... http://www.bom.gov.au/australia/warnings/index.shtml
Todays heat to 3pm
In stark contast a very wet February so far in the Tropics.
Flood, Cyclone, Wind and Fire weather warnings in place... http://www.bom.gov.au/australia/warnings/index.shtml
A tropical low near the Gulf of Carpentaria is not expected to remain too weak to pose any cyclone threat in the coming days although it will trigger further heavy rainfall across the region. Another low in the west of the Northern Territory is now expected to move towards the Joseph Bonaparte Gulf on Saturday and has a moderate potential of developing into a cyclone.
Heatwave conditions are expected to continue across the south east states until the weekend when a weak cooler change will offer some temperature relief about the more coastal districts although provide no relief across the inland with the heat drawn back towards the coast by mid week.
A Tropical low in the Gulf of Carpentaria is still providing a potential to form into a cyclone overnight before crossing the southern coastline with widespread moderate to heavy falls about the coastal districts. Another Tropical low over the southern Top End of the Northern Territory is moving east and is expected to blend with the low in the Gulf and then move only slowly back across the southern Top End through the weekend. This pattern is expected to maintain very wet conditions across much of the region of the Top End and Gulf of Carpentaria in the coming days.
In the southern states hot dry conditions will persist through the weekend with the third heatwave of the year settling across the south east states from Friday to Sunday ahead of a late cooling change but it won't be strong enough to displace the heat from the south east inland where high temperatures will persist through the new week but temperatures will ease a little in Adelaide, Melbourne and Canberra.
The recent rainfall across the northern Tropics has produced some widespread moderate to heavy falls as the Monsoon trough goes through a very active period and is expected to continue well into next week. Apart from areas in Western Australia and the western border areas of the Northern Territory rainfall is still hundreds of millimetres below the wet season average and this current burst of the monsoonal activity has a lot more work to do to achieve average rainfall between now and April.
There are still numerous warnings for heavy rainfall current and a cyclone watch, for all the details look here. http://www.bom.gov.au/australia/warnings/index.shtml
A warming trend has redeveloped in South Australia and will spread across the remainder of the south east by week's end with hot conditions through the weekend ahead of a cooler change Sunday/Monday. At this stage there is no major rainfall expected for the south east states from this approaching change apart from the west of Tasmania.
Seasonally typical conditions can be expected across the continent this week with widespread rainfall across the tropics in association with the active monsoon trough and numerous tropical lows embedded in the trough. Localised heavy falls will trigger the potential for flash flooding and there are numerous flood warnings still in place through some Queensland rivers. Gusty winds could develop in association with squally showers and thunderstorms but the threat from higher than normal tides should ease as lower high tides are expected in the coming weeks. See all the applicable warnings here.. http://www.bom.gov.au/australia/warnings/index.shtml
As one heatwave draws to an end across the south east another will follow quickly with temperatures across the south east states rising again by the end of the week and through the weekend as a northerly wind flow redevelops as a high moves into the Tasman sea over the next couple of days. There is still no outlook for worthwhile rainfall across the southern states over the next 7 days.
The central inland of Queensland including the Central West and Goldfields and northern parts of the Central Highlands-Coalfields should record some decent rainfall from Cyclone Dylan as the system draws moisture inland Friday and Saturday. The moisture dries out quickly by the time the cloud and remnants of the cyclone move and further west with much of the Gulf Country, Northwest and Channel Country expected to record mostly patchy light falls
The monsoon trough will remain active across the remainder of the northern tropics with some locally heavy falls capable of triggering some flash flooding. As the monsoon trough deepens over the weekend a low is expected to form offshore of the Northern Pilbara and there will be an increased chance of a cyclone developing early in the new week.
A heatwave will continue across the south east with very hot conditions to end the working week and through the weekend. A new high ridging east from Monday should introduce some milder air offering some relief but that won't reach parts of the inland of the South East until later Tuesday or Wednesday.
The monsoon trough will remain an active feature across the northern Tropics for the remainder of the week and through the weekend with localised heavy falls about the far northern coast. A tropical low is expected to cross the northern Queensland coast, potentially as a Category 1 Cyclone on Friday morning with damaging winds, heavy rainfall and dangerous storm tides. Weather warnings have been issued across parts of the tropics and can be found here http://www.bom.gov.au/australia/warnings/index.shtml
Across the south east hot dry air has become entrenched over the inland and will make brief forays into southern Victoria but Adelaide and Canberra will be the largest population centres to be affected with an extended run of hot to very hot conditions until a slight milder air mass displaces the heat from around Tuesday to Wednesday next week.
All data in this Blog is taken from the offical Bureau of Meteorology website and any climate data is from the BoM digital record unless otherwise stated.
The south east of the continent will remain very uncomfortable and potentially dangerous for human health and bushfire conditions through the remainder of the working week. The heat will not be displaced until a cool change develops late Friday or early Saturday for most of the south and into Canberra during Saturday afternoon. Along with high daytime temperatures the overnight minimums will be well above average
Here are some heat statistics to give a guide of some recent heatwave conditions:
Canberra Airport, In 2009 there were 3 days of consecutive 40 degree temperatures. This is pretty significant given there have only been 11 days above 40 in Canberra Airport’s history. Seven of those has occurred in the last 5 years. The 1979 heat wave was significant because it had five consecutive days in excess of 37 degrees. Hottest day on record is 42.2 and was recorded back in 1968. Data courtesy ABC Canberra and BOM.
Adelaide: 2009, 13 consecutive days over 33, 6 consecutive days above 40 and 4 consecutive days over 23.
Melbourne: 2009 12 consecutive days above 28, 5 consecutive days above 30 3 consecutive days above 43.
In Northern Australia the monsoon trough is the dominant feature with Cyclone Watch for a tropical low off the Northern Territory coast. Regardless of whether the low forms into a cyclone or not heavy rain is forecast across most of the Northern Territory and parts of Queensland and Western Australia through this week and the coming weekend.
A cool change will provide some relief from very hot temperatures about the coastal districts of the South East Mainland and Tasmania but there will be no relief from heatwave conditions through the south east Inland which includes much of South Australia, Inland Victoria Inland New South Wales and the ACT. At this stage forecast models maintain the pool of hot air over the inland until the middle of next week. Adelaide and Canberra are the largest population centres likely to be affected by the heatwave conditions.
In Queensland a Severe weather warning for damaging winds, heavy rainfall and abnormally high tides is current as a Tropical low combines with a high in the Tasman Sea to drive strong winds, squally showers and higher than normal tides along parts of the Queensland coast from about Mackay in the south to Port Douglas in the North. At this stage it looks as though the low will cross the northern Tropical Coast as an intense low or weak Cyclone during Thursday. http://www.bom.gov.au/cgi-bin/wrap_fwo.pl?IDQ20032.html Heavier falls are also possible as the remnants of the low move across the northern inland of Queensland then the eastern NT by the weekend.
The monsoon trough will maintain the potential for widespread thundery showers about the Top End of the Northern Territory and northern Kimberley with moderate to heavy accumulated 4 to 8 day totals. Heavier falls are also possible as the remnants of the low move inland.
Moderate to heavy rain across parts of Victoria and New South Wales will clear with a milder and dry southerly wind change sweeping through the south east overnight and Saturday. A high moving in behind the rain will centre itself over the Tasman sea by Sunday and become slow moving, resulting in another period of hot and dry conditions across much of South Australia, Victoria, ACT, New South Wales and Tasmania with severe conditions developing about parts of the south east mainland from Monday.
The focus of heavy rain will shift away from the southern states and into the northern tropics with the monsoon trough remaining active across the northern Tropics and a low embedded in the trough triggering very heavy falls about parts of the Top End and Kimberley with more than enough rain to exacerbate flooding in some of these areas.
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