On 13 November 2013 Menas Associates hosted our eighth event with Clyde & Co entitled "Which way for Nigeria in 2014?" Nigeria could become Africa's biggest economy by 2014, as well as its largest and most populous multi-party democracy. December will see the results announced of its first rebasing of GDP in 20 years. With 170 million people and 6% average growth over the past decade, many economists are predicting that Nigeria will overtake South Africa as the continent's largest economy. With national elections due in late 2014 or early 2015, next year will also see Nigeria face its most critical political test since the 1999 return to civilian rule. Under President Goodluck Jonathan, the ruling PDP faces a credible and national challenge from a reorganised opposition that has strong support in the southwest and north. The PDP will be campaigning on what it hopes will be its successful privatisation of the electricity sector and the establishment of reliable nationwide power supplies. Africa's richest entrepreneur, Aliko Dangote, has corralled US$9.3 billion of investment to build a 440,000b/d capacity oil refinery, petrochemical plant and fertiliser factory in southwest Nigeria. Alongside these ambitious industrialisation projects and structural economic reforms, northeastern Nigeria is wracked by Boko Haram's bloody insurgency. The government talks of a two-track strategy -- political and military -- but is it really working? Meanwhile, in Jonathan's Niger Delta base, discontent is mounting again over pollution, joblessness and a lack of accountability in the country's US$100 billion a year oil and gas industry. Pirate attacks and ship hijackings are also more frequent in the Gulf of Guinea than along the Somalia coastline. What is the government's security plan for the Delta? Patrick Smith is a senior associate at Menas Associates, publisher of Africa Confidential and Africa-Asia Confidential, and Editor-in-Chief of the Paris-based Africa Report since 1991. He has lived and worked in West, East and Southern Africa for more than 30 years. A regular commentator on the BBC, in the last year he has reported on the new democracy movements in Libya, Tunisia and Egypt, as well as national elections in Nigeria, the start-up of commercial oil production in Ghana, the regional security crisis in East Africa and the ruling party's ructions in South Africa. He is also a regular contributor to the Guardian, the Observer, the Economist and other international media. About Menas Associates Menas Associates is an information provider and political risk consultancy specialising in analysis and consulting services to businesses and governments operating in developing markets. Established in 1978, Menas has evolved to reflect the changing demands for information and analysis on international political and investment conditions. Menas Associates publishes regular reports which identify and explain key issues, monitor emerging trends, track key political changes and offer long-term assessments of stability for businesses. If you would like further information about this seminar, please contact: info@menas.co.uk For more details about Menas Associates please visit: www.menas.co.uk

• published: 20 Nov 2013
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