Antony Green's Election Blog

Federal Election Preview - Northern Territory

This post can now be found on my 2013 Federal Election Guide at http://www.abc.net.au/news/federal-election-2013/guide/.

Timetable for Future Elections

Time for an update of my election calender to cover the full cycle of state polls to follow September's federal election.

You will note there is a long gap between the NSW and Queensland elections in March 2015 and the next Federal election in late 2016, assuming no double dissolution. If there was going to be a political debate started by the states on the GST, you would expect it to begin after March 2015.

Are there any Lessons from the Wanguri By-election Result?

On Saturday night the Northern Territory Country Liberal government took a pasting at a by-election in the northern Darwin seat of Wanguri. (Results at http://www.abc.net.au/elections/nt/2013/wanguri/)

The by-election had been caused by the resignation of former Labor Chief Minister Paul Henderson.

In the circumstances the electorate could have been annoyed at Paul Henderson and the Labor Party for causing the by-election. The electorate could have taken their choice of reasons to be annoyed at Julia Gillard and the Labor Party, either for the way she is running the country, or for her recent "captain's pick" to annoint Nova Peris as the lead candidate for Labor's NT Senate ticket.

Instead, voters turned out and expressed their dislike of the actions in office of the six-month old Mills Country Liberal government.

Voters have delivered a whopping 12.7% swing against the Country Liberals. Labor's new candidate Nicole Manison received 69.7% of the two-party preferred vote, up near Paul Henderson's winning margin at Labor's landslide election victory in 2005.

It is the worst swing against a first term government in two decades. The largest first term swing I can think of was 16% against the Greiner government in the NSW seat of Coffs Harbour at a 1990 by-election.

The 2013 ACT and NT Senate Battles

For the second time in a fortnight, stories on Territory Senate pre-selections have made the headlines.

Two weeks ago it was the decision of Julia Gillard to make a "captain's pick" and install Nove Peris as the lead Labor candidate for the Northern Territory.

This morning it is a Canberra Times story that incumbent Liberal Senator Garry Humphries is to be challenged by ACT Liberal Opposition Leader Zed Seselja.

The two stories provide me with an opportunity to look at the odd constitutional position of the four Territory Senators, and to speculate on whether candidate changes in either Territory could have an impact on the 2013 Federal election result.

Wanguri By-election - 16 February 2013

Voters in the northern Darwin seat of Wanguri face a by-election on Saturday 16 February 2013.  The by-election has been caused by the resignation of former Labor Chief Minister Paul Henderson.

I've prepared a page of background material on the by-election. You can find it at http://www.abc.net.au/elections/nt/2013/wanguri/

Final Figures for 2012 Northern Territory Election

Today the NT Electoral Commission has undertaken the final check count and distribution of preferences. The formal declaration of the poll will take place tomorrow morning.

The ABC's NT Election website has now been updated with the final figures.

The table below sets out the final two-party preferred results, including the 2-party preferred count conducted for information purposes in Nelson. The overall swing to the CLP was 5.1%, the Country Liberals winning 55.8% of the overall 2-party preferred vote. 

Comparing Recent NT and Federal Election Results

As I outlined in my preview of Saturday's Northern Territory election (which you can find it at this link), the 2012 election is likely to mirror past results in being decided by key seats in Darwin's northern suburbs.

Traditionally the state's remote and outback electorates are solid for Labor, while the regional seats in Alice Springs and Katherine are equally solid for the Country Liberals. The seats in the Darwin satellite city of Palmerston also tend to favour the Country Liberals, which leaves the string of suburban seats in Darwin's north as key in deciding who wins the election.

It was Labor's inability to win Darwin seats that kept the party out of power for more than two decades, but Labor has performed much more strongly in Darwin since its 2001 victory.

The other traditional feature of NT elections is the importance of sitting members. With just under 5,000 voters per electorate, it is easy for a hard working sitting member to build a buffer of support by attention to local issues.

An interesting exercise is to compare Territory election results to Federal results. Since 2001 the Northern Territory has had two seats in the House of Representatives. The urban seat of Solomon includes all twelve Darwin and Palmerston electorates in the Northern Territory Assembly, while the two Darwin rural seats plus the 11 regional and remote seats lie in Lingiari.

While the Federal results are not a guide to who might win each Territory seat, they do allow you to gain an overal picture of the underlying Labor and Country Liberal complexion of each Territory electorate.

2012 NT Election: How to Follow the ABC Coverage on Saturday Night

This Saturday night the ABC will be providing in-depth analysis of the Northern Territory election across television, radio and via a full results service on the internet.

The television coverage will be live on ABC1 in the Northern Territory, with a separate radio coverage on ABC local radio throughout the Territory.

I'm involved in the television coverage that begins at 6:30pm Territory time after a half hour local news produced by News 24 and beginning at 6pm Territory time.

ABC News 24 will broadcast the election count live across Australia, and it will also be streamed live on the internet at http://www.abc.net.au/news/abcnews24/. For those trying to watch overseas, the News 24 stream will have its geoblock lifted for the evening.

The ABC News 24 coverage across Australia starts at 6:30pm Australian Eastern time with the NT news bulletin and tally room cross, the non-stop coverage starting at 7pm eastern. (Those times are half an hour earlier in South Australia, two hours earlier in Western Australia.)

The ABC will also be providing a full results service at www.abc.net.au/elections. You can currently find all my election background material at that address.

If I get chance when not on camera, I'll try and twitter at #ntvotes, and will also provide updates on the Heffron by-election at www.abc.net.au/elections/nsw/2012/heffron/

There are a few things I need to explain about how we are setting up the coverage.

How the Election Count Unfolded at the 2008 Northern Territory Election

The science of covering an election is knowing how to model the count. As the results are reported on election night, you need some method to extrapolate the progressive counts received so far into a projection of the final result.

On election night we receive two sets of counts, one a count of first preference votes, a second for indicative counts after preferences. The two counts are phoned through from polling places separately, so there is often a gap between the progress of the two counts.

2012 Northern Territory Election Website now live

My website for the 2012 Northern Territory election is now live at http://www.abc.net.au/elections/nt/2012/

The site is linked from www.abc.net.au/elections

The NT Legislative Assembly will disolve for the election on Monday 6 August, rolls will close on Wednesday 8 August, and nominations close on Friday 10 August. Polling day is Saturday 25 August.