US to be top oil producer for only four years Subscribe to The Latest News: http://goo.gl/qkQPyf Watch the latest video news https://www.youtube.com/user/TheLatestNews81 you can watch from the web The International Energy Agency said last week that the United States is likely to become the world's top oil producer by 2016, overtaking Saudi Arabia and bringing the nation closer to energy independence. While it's been a widely held notion in the marketplace that increases in North American supply—meaning the U.S. and Canada combined—would bring about a sea change in the crude market, last week's IEA report noted that U.S. dominance will last for only four years. So while the highly anticipated production surge will help reduce the West's dependence on OPEC output, how much does it really matter in the longer term? And is the IEA correct in its assumption that the boom in Texas and North Dakota oilfields will be past its prime by 2020? "There are real questions about the longevity of the fields," said John Kilduff, founding partner of Again Capital. "The early going has seen rapid decline rates [in Texas and North Dakota] after about year two or three, which seems to keep the drillers on the move. The rapid advances and rise in production have moved the date forward as to when the U.S. becomes No. 1." Other analysts see more longevity in the fields, however. Justin Jenkins, research associate at Raymond James, said, "Our views on technological advancements continue to bolster our thoughts that U.S. production will continue to grow throughout the decade. As we approach the end of the decade, the growth rates will decline, but our models don't show any major declines." The production boom discussion comes as concerns about supply seem almost nonexistent. In the last three months alone, the U.S. benchmark crude price, West Texas Intermediate, has fallen more than 12 percent, from just under $108 a barrel to slightly less than $94 now. The slide is good news for consumers, as gas prices have been dropping nationwide. They are down 38 cents from a month ago, with the national average for a gallon of regular at $3.19 and even dipping below $3.00 in parts of the country. What's even more noteworthy about the WTI price is its recent resistance to influence by geopolitical news, specifically headlines out of the Middle East. Domestic crude prices hardly reacted last week when Iran failed to negotiate a deal with the international community on shutting down its nuclear weapons program, while they would have been volatile on similar news a year ago. But regardless of what's happening at this moment, the IEA report indicates that U.S. oil prices are unlikely to be free of OPEC's influence. read more:

• published: 18 Nov 2013
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