What? No lifejacket Prime Minister? Source: News Limited
TONY Abbott spent so much time making a case an election would end the instability of Labor administrations he created an expectation of almost instantaneous change were he to take power.
Well he's had that power for some 11 weeks, which has been long enough to establish it will take more than merely flicking a few switches for the promised Abbott effect to appear.
The instability continues and polling - probably not least the Liberals' own - is recording the reaction.
This week Nielsen in Fairfax newspapers had Labor an improbable two-party preferred lead of 52 per cent to the Government's 48 per cent. At the September 7 election the breakdown was Coalition 53.5 per cent and Labor 46.5 per cent.
Newspoll in today's Australian reversed Nielsen. It showed a more reasonable and marginal boost to Labor's two-party preferred vote but with the Government still leading, 52 per cent to 48 pre cent.
It's difficult to argue that Labor has earned the substantial post-election bounce reported by these two surveys which opened the opinion poll season proper this week.
It spent three weeks deciding who would be its leader, and when he was chosen Bill Shorten then took a holiday, an understandable break after two draining election campaigns in a row. But even on his return refreshed, Mr Shorten seemed flat when compared to his aggression as a minister.
Plus it took a while for Parliament to open, which robbed Labor of a vital platform of attack from Opposition. But it needn't have worried. What it couldn't do against the Government the Government seemed keen to do to itself.
The new Government was quickly confronted by the reality that a smooth transition in asylum seeker policy wouldn't happen. The Indonesians were not as impressed by the mandate argument as Mr Abbott would have liked.
It became clear the Coalition's asylum seeker policy had been contrived despite the Indonesians, not with them. The spy uproar has worsened that issue.
The Abbott Government's heavy-handed information management - contained in the Prime Minister's vow not to be a slave of the 24-hour news cycle - rebounded against it. Immigration Minister Scott Morrison has, post opinion polls, been doing more interviews outside his tight circle of media chums.
Slightly more information has come from the minister, who was perhaps goaded by responses to his remarkable performance in refusing to confirm a public statement he himself had made.
Treasurer Joe Hockey has been one of the surer ministers. However, promises on the Budget looked strange as the Government sought to borrow more money, having told voters that going further into debt was not the path to recovery. That was one issue Labor handled to its advantage.
The opinions are early markers and in no way are they prophecies. We are three years from an election and should not be reading too much into them about the fate of the Government.
However, the delay in the arrival of the Abbott effect could add to electoral scepticism.
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