Media Influences on Social Outcomes: The Impact of MTV’s 16 and Pregnant on Teen Childbearing

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by Melissa S. Kearney, Phillip B. Levine

Abstract:

This paper explores how specific media images affect adolescent attitudes and outcomes. The specific context examined is the widely viewed MTV franchise, 16 and Pregnant, a series of reality TV shows including the Teen Mom sequels, which follow the lives of pregnant teenagers during the end of their pregnancy and early days of motherhood. We investigate whether the show influenced teens’ interest in contraceptive use or abortion, and whether it ultimately altered teen childbearing outcomes. We use data from Google Trends and Twitter to document changes in searches and tweets resulting from the show, Nielsen ratings data to capture geographic variation in viewership, and Vital Statistics birth data to measure changes in teen birth rates. We find that 16 and Pregnant led to more searches and tweets regarding birth control and abortion, and ultimately led to a 5.7 percent reduction in teen births in the 18 months following its introduction. This accounts for around one-third of the overall decline in teen births in the United States during that period.

Read all about it.

Meanwhile from the unintended consquences department

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Does Planning Regulation Protect Independent Retailers? by Raffaella Sadun

Abstract:

Regulations aimed at curbing the entry of large retail stores have
been introduced in many countries to protect independent retailers.
Analyzing a planning reform launched in the United Kingdom in the
1990s, I show that independent retailers were actually harmed by the
creation of entry barriers against large stores. Instead of simply
reducing the number of new large stores entering a market, the entry
barriers created the incentive for large retail chains to invest in
smaller and more centrally located formats, which competed more
directly with independents and accelerated their decline. Overall,
these findings suggest that restricting the entry of large stores
does not necessarily lead to a world with fewer stores, but one with
different stores, with uncertain competitive effects on independent
retailers.

Did Hayek support a basic income guarantee?

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A recent Swiss proposal for a basic income guarantee has sparked interest from commentators on both the left and right. In a discussion of libertarian arguments for the proposal, Bleeding Heart Libertarians blogger Matt Zwolinski suggests that the classical liberal economist Friedrich Hayek supported a basic income guarantee. He relies on a quote from Volume 3 of Hayek’s Law, Legislation and Liberty:

The assurance of a certain minimum income for everyone, or a sort of floor below which nobody need fall even when he is unable to provide for himself, appears not only to be a wholly legitimate protection against a risk common to all, but a necessary part of the Great Society in which the individual no longer has specific claims on the members of the particular small group into which he was born (p 395).

A number of writers, including Zwolinski, his fellow blogger at Bleeding Heart Libertarians, Kevin Vallier and Julie Novak of the Institute of Public Affairs seem to interpret this as a proposal for the government to pay every citizen a basic income, regardless of their income, assets or willingness to work. I think this is a misinterpretation of Hayek’s position. What Hayek actually proposed was a means tested scheme restricted to those who are unable to earn a living in the market.

Continue reading →

Predictions versus outcomes in 2013?

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In the last 5 years, I have made a point of giving clear predictions on complex socio-economic issues. I give predictions partially to improve my own understanding of humanity: nothing sharpens the thoughts as much as having to actually predict something. Another reason is as a means of helping my countries (Australia/the Netherlands) understand the world: predicting socio-economic events is what social scientists should do, even if they will often be wrong.

Time to have a look at my predictive successes and failures over the last few years, as well as the outstanding predictions yet to be decided. Let us start with what I consider my main failure.

                 Failed predictions

The main area I feel I haven’t read quite right is the conflict in Syria, as part of the general change in the whole Middle East. I am still happy with my long-run predictions for that region, where I have predicted that urbanisation, more education, reduced fertility rates, and a running out of fossil fuels will lead to a normalisation of politics in a few decades time. But at the end of 2012 I was too quick in thinking the Syria conflict was done and dusted. To be fair, I was mainly following the ‘intrade political betting markets’ which was 90% certain Assad would no longer be president by the end of this year, but the prophesised take-over of the country by the Sunni majority has not quite happened. The place has become another Lebanon, with lots of armed groups defending their own turf and making war on the turf of others. The regime no longer controls the whole country, but is still the biggest militia around.

What did I fail to see? I mainly over-estimated the degree to which the West would become involved. Continue reading →

Boxing day bleg: how strongly do you feel about the weather?

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I know three people who say they’re quite strongly affected by the weather. They dislike rainy, overcast or muggy days and like fine ones that are not too hot or cold. Me? Well I agree, but while I can enjoy a nice day, I have no feeling of a bad day weighing me down.

I’ve just realised that the three people I know who react more strongly than me are female. And I know quite a few men who are relaxed about the weather like I am. So while I’m sure there’s no one-to-one mapping between gender and this strength of reaction to the weather, I wonder on this tiny sample if I’m seeing a more generally applicable pattern. And perhaps there are other things to be learned about the kinds of people whose mood is strongly influenced by the weather.

So, O Troppodillians, spare us a couple of moments of your time and fess up to your own predilections and sensitivities, and those of people you know.

And now for some good news on racism: raising awareness makes a big difference

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Awareness Reduces Racial Bias by Devin G. Pope, Joseph Price, Justin Wolfers  -  #19765 (LS PE)

Abstract:

Can raising awareness of racial bias subsequently reduce that bias? We address this question by exploiting the widespread media attention highlighting racial bias among professional basketball referees that occurred in May 2007 following the release of an academic study. Using new data, we confirm that racial bias persisted in the years after the study’s original sample, but prior to the media coverage. Subsequent to the media coverage though, the bias completely disappeared.  We examine potential mechanisms that may have produced this result and find that the most likely explanation is that upon becoming aware of their biases, individual referees changed their decision-making process.  These results suggest that raising awareness of even subtle forms of bias can bring about meaningful change.