The Robert S. Strauss Center welcomed Dr. Tom McNaugher of the RAND Corporation on February 3, 2009 to discuss the current state of affairs on the Korean Peninsula. Dr. Eugene Gholz, a Strauss Center Senior Fellow and Associate Professor at the LBJ School of Public Affairs, moderated the talk. Dr. McNaugher opened his lecture by reviewing the history of U.S. policy toward Korea. He noted that although most Americans are concerned about the challenges that North Korea poses, he is more concerned about the stability of the entire Korean Peninsula, which is the geostrategic center of Northeast Asia. Historically, Korea has been subject to the influence and will of its neighbors on all sides. Dr. McNaugher expressed concern that if South Korea fails to retain a security "umbrella" it would inevitably seek nuclear arms and potentially ignite an arms race in Northeast Asia. He expressed his hope that the U.S. would continue its relationship with South Korea in the long-term. Dr. McNaugher then detailed President Clinton's attempts to open dialogue with North Korea, which contrasted sharply with the Bush Administration's approach. Dr. McNaugher faulted the Bush Administration for its hard-line, unilateral approach and outlined the importance of multilateral dialogue that eventually occurred in the six-party talks. Turning to the future of North Korea, Dr. McNaugher expressed concern over the possible collapse of North Korea and its probable ramifications, noting that the United States is unprepared for such an event. Dr. McNaugher offered several policy prescriptions for addressing the North Korea issue: engage the North Koreans in dialogue while including the other four major powers in the region in the talks; reconsider our military planning scenarios for Northeast Asia; address the issue of North-South Korea border relocation being raised by the Chinese and North Koreans; maintain nuclear weapons to reassure the Japanese of our commitment to stability in the region; and make plans to stay in the region for the long-term. Dr. McNaugher then fielded questions from the audience. Asked to comment on the similarities between potential Korean unification and German unification following the end of the Cold War, he argued that the analogy falls apart for historical, culture, and political reasons. Dr. Gholz questioned Dr. McNaugher on the wisdom of U.S. involvement in a war between North and South Korea. Dr. McNaugher noted that the United States plays a unique mediation role in the region and is the most capable player to preserve regional stability. Dr. McNaugher continued to insist on the prudence of an American military presence in South Korea in response to questions about whether the North Korean government's legitimacy rested on U.S. troops being based in South Korea. Dr. McNaugher stressed the importance of pursuing dialogue and a peace agreement with the North Koreans. He concluded by discussing possible outcomes resulting from the collapse of North Korea.

• published: 11 Oct 2013
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