A Chicken Is Not Pillage

Week 8 Picks

Doing weekly picks highlights, to me, that the hardest part of even my meager attempt at sports writing is to seperate the fan from the objective view.  You pick the team you think will win based on matchups, record, travel, home field and history.  But there is always that little needle poking the back of your neck telling you to pick the team you want to win, even if the rest doesn't line up.  That does make it a bit more satisfying when you pick wrong, but the fan still celebrates the win or loss.  I don't mind being wrong about the Patriots' loss even one small bit.  Conversely, it makes it much more difficult to swallow when you pick the objectively correct team that you really want to win and they lose.  Denver's loss on Sunday was a bitter pill indeed.

Still, an aura of invincibility is not healthy for any organization, and I'm glad that little obstacle is now out of the way for the Denver Broncos.

Much is being made of the injuries suffered in week 7, and it should be.  The team most damaged by those must certainly be the Chicago Bears.  No, I'm not just talking about the loss of Jay Cutler.  Lance Briggs' absence for 6 weeks will hurt the Bears as much if not more than the injury at QB.

My picks last week basically sucked.  No excuses.  That's why they play the game.  I would point out, however, that I still have an overall record equal to or better than all but three of ESPN's pundit experts.

Thursday

Carolina (3-3) at Tampa Bay (0-6) - Panthers  (31 - 13, Panthers)

Sunday

Dallas (4-30) at Detroit (4-3) - Cowboys  (30 - 31, Lions)

Cleveland (3-4) at Kansas City (7-0) - Chiefs (17 - 23, Chiefs)

Miami (3-3) at New England (5-2) - Patriots (17 - 27, Patriots)

Buffalo (3-4) at New Orleans (5-1) - Saints (17 - 35, Saints)

New York Giants (1-6) at Philadelphia (3-4) - Giants (15 - 7, Giants)

San Fransisco (5-2) at Jacksonville (0-7) - 49ers (42 - 10, 'Niners)

New York Jets (4-3) at Cincinatti (5-2) - Bengals (9 - 40, Bengals)

Pittsburgh (2-4) at Oakland (2-4) - Raiders (18 - 21, Raiders)

Washington (2-4) at Denver (6-1) - Broncos (21 - 45, Broncos)

Atlanta (2-4) at Arizona (3-4) - Falcons (13 - 27, Cardinals)

Sunday Night

Green Bay (4-2) at Minnesota (1-5) - Packers (44 - 31, Packers)

Monday Night

Seattle (6-1) at St. Louis (3-4) - Seahawks (14 - 9, Seahawks)

Byes: Chicago, Tennessee, Indianapolis, San Diego, Baltimore, Houston

Last Week's score:  8 - 7, 53%  Overall: 70 - 37, 65%

Work Week

I took this week off work to accomplish the usual Autumn chores as well as some of the tasks left from perpetual home rebuild.  Yesterday was a wash, because I had to spend the day near the phone in support of my young Padawan doing her first solo computer reconstruction.  She did brilliantly.  Today, on the other hand, I think I over-compensated. 

One of my autumn projects is clearing leaves.  In addition to loading my truck with a quarter ton of destruction materials to go to the dump tomorrow, my project for today was leaf duty.  To any who are unfamiliar with our house, in our front yard is one of the oldest and largest Ash trees on the northside, which has the oldest and largest Ash trees in the city.  Ash trees are conservative; they leaf out late and drop early.  Because of the early snow storm, however, our Ash didn't so much drop as completely dump it's leaves.  I could have just raked them into the street for the city to deal with, creating a pile at least 6 feet long, 5 feet wide and 3 feet tall.  But Chris and I garden, and we compost everything we can including leaves.  So I clear the leaves with the bagging mower, putting all the chop in the compost system.

My beloved thought clearing the front yard would take me all week.  I told her it would take two days.  I did it all this afternoon.  I'm not trying to whine here, but I am one tired puppy dog.

Not Happy

My beloved and I have lived in this house for 17 years.  But we live across from the Bozeman Brewing Company, an establishment that has been here maybe a decade (I don't clearly remember.)  It's a bar.  No bullshit.  It's a bar.  I have come to some resolution that dumbass bar patrons will be rude to my life.  But I still have a problem when bar patrons block the driveway.  Imagine yourself in that sad position.  When my wife ghets home and finds the driveway blocked, she will unleash hell on the bar and its patrons.  I don't blame her.  Yet still, when I call the cops on those who act foolishly, I am somehow the bad guy.

Most problems are resolved without any conflict.  I went to the bartenders, when it is not their job to keep people from being stupid, and it seemed to help.  I'm done.  When someone does the stupid, I act the role of calling the cops and take pictures of their car.  Mostly, that works to get them moving their ass.  Lately it hasn't.  Most times anymore, neither effort has worked.  The priveleged get to do whatever they want and fuck the area ... BEER!   So, I call the cops.

When folk are from out-of-town, I am willing to cut them some slack.  But the last several folk are from Bozeman, and they don't care ... until the police show up.  Suddenly, they are apologetic and willing to admit thier wrong doing.  I don't buy a word of it.  All they've done is put my life at odds with the bar, the bar patrons.  I hope that they have a moral center, but I'm pessimistic that my tires are safe or that my beloved's car won't be fussed with.

I really really hate living across from a bar.

Week 7 Picks

GO-Dammit!  I'm still pissed off about that Colts-Chargers fiasco.  I was so looking forward to the unstoppable Manning Juggernaut against the unstoppable Luck Behemoth.  Guess what we have now?  A Denver offense averaging 42 points a game against a defense that Manning knows like the back of his hand.  On the other side, we have a Colts offense that was stopped by a decent San Diego defense facing Champ Bailey, Dominic Rodgers-Cromartie, Shawn Phillips and one really really motivated Von Miller.  I don't know that Jim Irsay's callous comments about Manning's lone Super Bowl ring will have any effect on the game.  Yet, strangely, this line keeps running through the back of my head:  What is best in life?  To slay your enemies, see them driven before you and hear the lamentations of their women.  15 years ago, in an intense competition with the ultimate slack-jawed loser Ryan Leaf, Peyton Manning told the Colts Brass that they better draft him first or he would spend the next 15 years kicking their butts.  15 years later, he's gonna kick their butts.  Irsay may be right that Luck will deliver more rings to the Colts.  But Darth Peyton will not be kind on Sunday night.  End of rant.

If someone had told me 2 years ago that the AFC West would be the strongest division in football, 2013, I would have laughed and laughed and bust my intestines while laughing.  Okay.  So.  They are.  The Raiders look very good with Tyrell Pryor under center.  The Chargers are the Jeckle-Hyde of the NFL but on any given day ... The only two remaining undefeated teams are the Broncos and the Chiefs.  I do not think either one will go undefeated through the season.  As I have since the kickoff on day one, I think they will lose to each other.

p.s.  Time is limited, so I am picking the Thursday game and posting this.  Updates will come before Sunday.

Thursday

Seattle (5-1) at Arizona (3-3) - Seahawks (34 - 22, Seahawks)

Sunday

Tampa Bay (0-5) at Atlanta (1-4)  - Falcons (23 - 31, Falcons)

Cincinnati (4-2) at Detroit(4-2) - Lions (27 - 24, Bengals)

Buffalo (2-4) at Miami (3-2) - Dolphins (23 - 21, Bills)

New England (5-1) at New York Jets (3-3) - Patriots (27 - 30, Jets)

Dallas (3-3) at Philadelphia (3-3) - Eagles (17 - 3, Cowboys)

Chicago (4-2) at Washington (1-4) - Bears (41 - 45, Redskins)

St. Louis (3-3) at Carolina (2-3) - Rams (15 - 30, Panthers)

San Diego (3-3) at Jacksonville (0-6)- Chargers (24 - 6, Chargers)

San Francisco (4-2) at Tennessee (3-3) - 49ers (31 - 17, 49ers)

Cleveland (3-3) at Green Bay (3-2) - Packers (13 - 31, Packers)

Houston (2-4) at Kansas City (6-0) - Chiefs (16 -17, Chiefs)

Baltimore (3-3) at Pittsburgh (1-4) - Steelers (16 - 19, Steelers)

Sunday Night

Denver (6-0) at Indianapolis (4-2) - Broncos (33 - 39, Colts)

Monday Night

Minnesota (1-4) at New York Giants (0-6) - Giants (7 -23, Giants)

Byes: Oakland, New Orleans

Last Week's score:  12 - 3, 80%  Overall:  62 - 30, 67%

Week 6 Picks

I remain in awe of the statistical significance of what we saw happening Sunday afternoon in Dallas.  Records fell or were bullied by the offensive output of the Cowboys and the Broncos.  I won't belabor all the records and stats here, save one.    A team that scores 48 points has less than  one in a hundred chance of losing that game.  As my friend Mark kept saying:  It was epic.

The Good:

The New Orleans Saints.  As much as the Bronco's offense is an unstoppable Juggernaut, the Saints have a package of unstoppable offense and solid defense.  Drew Brees would be my obvious pick for MVP (if not for that otherworldly QB in Denver) but he's not doing it alone.  This is a Team on a Mission.

The other Team on a Mission has scored 50+ points in the last two games.  The Peyton Manning Broncos are very good.  The Cowboys found one way to beat the Broncos.  You have to audaciously outscore them.  Yeah, about that ...  A lot of folks want to blame Romo for what happened at the end of that scoring maelstrom.  Nope.  That was incredable effort by Denver's Danny Trevathon.  Like Wesley Woodyard before him, Trevathon will be an under-noted over-achiever.  The Broncos host Jacksonville this weekend, and then their defense ramps up with Bailey and Miller in the house of the Colts.  Count the Colts among 'the good', but we'll see if they can accomplish the Dallas strategem and out-score the Denver Broncos.  I'm not convinced that anybody can, save maybe the Saints.

A Good to Knowshon Moreno of the Broncos.  It has been obvious that every Denver game since the Giants has been an attempt to get the running game going.  Grading running back by committee, no Denver back has been as valuable, as committed or as reliable as Moreno.  You need yards, he gets yards.  You need him to forgo a touchdown and drop on the one?  He does it.  You need a pass caught three yards downfield?  Fine.  He'll turn that into 15.

Finally, Tony Romo.  Totally good.  Most quarterbacks never get to experience the success that Romo had on Sunday.  He broke records set by Hall of Famer, Troy Aikman, and Don Meredith.  That performance alone earned his gaudy salary.  This may not have been a moral victory (see below), but it proved Romo as one of the elite.

There really isn't any more good to spread to the NFC.  It's looking hinky this year, save the Saints.  Yet now there are 3.  5-0.  I hesitate to post this under the good because the Chiefs are in the Broncos division.

The Bad: 

It's disconcerting when one of the finest teams in the league falls off.  It's downright jarring when that team begins the season with an 'elite' quarterback and the concensus 'best receiving corp' in the game.  But somehow, the Falcons have managed to find ways to lose, and have looked really mediocre doing it.  Their defense is awful, their receivers have massively under-performed (especially Roddy White) and now they face the prospect of a season without Julio Jones.  Whatever post-season hopes that Atlanta had came crashing down on Monday night.  They will still win a game or two; they are in the same division as Carolina and Tampa Bay.  But for January ball, stick a fork in them, they're done.

No, Jerry Jones.  There is no such thing in the NFL as a "moral victory".  Football is not an inherently moral or immoral game.  This is not pro-wrestling with 'good guys' and 'bad guys'.  Your Cowboys played very well, exceptional even.  You've got that going for you.  But it appears that you have bought well into the idea that the Cowboys are 'America's Team', and if you believe in a moral victory in defeat, than the purchase price was too high.

The Jacksonville Jaguars are bad.  That is the only way to put it.  They play gutsy football well below anything expected from an NFL team.  I will not be in the least surprised if they become the second team in history to go 0-16.  And frankly, whoever among management or coaching thought Blaine Gabbert was an NFL quarterback should be fired, yesterday.  Chad Henne is a better choice, not that it will matter against the Denver Juggernaut.

The Ugly:

I've seen multiple polls now asking which winless team will score their first victory.  Personally, I think it will be the Steelers.  It most certainly won't be the Giants.  There are all kinds of losing in the world.  There is losing nobly, like the Cowboys this past week.  There is losing ugly, like the Chargers to the Raiders.  There is losing stupidly, like the Chiefs did all last season.  Then there is losing ugly stupid like the Giants have commited to this year.  A Coughlin coached team this disgusting makes me lose faith that humanity deserves to survive.

 LeSean McCoy has decided to troll other running backs on the Twitters.  In addition to attacking other winning RBs, he wrote so eloquently that "Knowshon Moreno sucks".  The ugly part of this is that he plays on a 2-3 team that's letting opposing defenses shove his head up his own ass.  Yes, he will likely put up big numbers against a Tampa defense that couldn't stop a WalMart shopper in a moterized fat-folk cart.  But trolling the league is never pretty.

Thursday

New York Giants (0-5) at Chicago (3-2) - Bears (21 - 27, Bears)

Sunday

Cincinnati (3-2) at Buffalo (2-3) - Bengals (27 - 24, Bengals)

Detroit (3-2) at Cleveland (3-2) - Lions (31 - 17, Lions)

Oakland (2-3) at Kansas City (5-0) - Chiefs (7 - 24, Chiefs)

Carolina (1-3) at Minnesota (1-3) - Panthers (35 - 10, Panthers)

Pittsburgh (0-4) at New York Jets (3-2) - Steelers (19 - 6, Steelers)

Philadelphia (2-3) at Tampa Bay (0-4) - Eagles (31 - 20, Eagles)

Green Bay (2-2) at Baltimore (3-2) - Packers (19 - 17, Packers)

St. Louis (2-3) at Houston (2-3) - Texans (38 - 13, Rams)

Jacksonville (0-5) at Denver (5-0) - Broncos (19 - 35, Broncos)

Tennessee (3-2) at Seattle (4-1) - Seahawks (13 - 20, Seahawks)

New Orleans (5-0) at New England (4-1)- Saints (27 - 30, Patriots)

Arizona (3-2) at San Francisco (3-2) - 49ers (20 - 32, 49ers)

Sunday Night

Washington (1-3) at Dallas (2-3) - Cowboys (16 - 31, Cowboys)

Monday Night

Indianapolis (4-1) at San Diego (2-3) - Colts (9 - 19, Chargers)

Byes:  Atlanta and Miami

Last Week's score:  10-4, 71%  Overall:  50-27,  64%