Daily Kos

Reposted from Daily Kos Elections by David Nir Wowza. I don't think anyone was expecting this when they woke up on Monday morning. Republican Rep. Tim Griffin, who serves Arkansas' Little Rock-based 2nd Congressional District, announced that he's retiring after just two terms in office. Griffin's decision is especially surprising given that he's just 45 years old, and his stated reason—the clichéd "spend time with my family"—is so thin that, combined with his age and short tenure, it just invites speculation as to his true feelings.

What's more, Griffin handily won this seat during the GOP wave of 2010 after Democratic Rep. Vic Snyder retired, and given that Mitt Romney easily carried the 2nd 55-43 last year, he would have been strongly favored for a third term next year. That makes Griffin's decision even more mystifying.

If you were politically active during the George W. Bush years, you'll remember Griffin as the Karl Rove acolyte who leveraged his hackish loyalty into an utterly undeserved appointment as U.S. Attorney—one that he secured, thanks to an extremely controversial loophole, without Senate confirmation. Immense pressure forced him to resign just six months later, so holding jobs only for short periods seems to be something of a pattern with him. At the very least, we know that this is not a terrific time to be a Republican member of the House.

And now, though, his seat will become a potential Democratic pickup, albeit a reach. Late last week, rumors surfaced that former North Little Rock Mayor Pat Hays would take a run at Griffith; on Monday, that crystallized a bit further, with MSNBC's Jessica Taylor saying Hays would announce a bid on Tuesday, according to an unnamed "Democratic source."

Other possible Democratic names include state Sen. David Johnson, state Rep. Tommy Thompson, businesswoman (and former state Rep.) Linda Tyler, state Secretary of Education Shane Broadway, former Lt. Gov. (and 2010 Senate candidate) Bill Halter, and Little Rock school board official Dianne Curry.

Republicans will definitely have the advantage when it comes to retaining this red-trending district, though. Some potential options are wealthy businessman and one-time George H.W. Bush aide French Hill and state Sen. David Sanders. Interest is likely to be high, so others will almost surely soon emerge.

Generally speaking, Democrats have performed much better in presidential rather than midterm elections in recent years, so 2014 turnout ought to lean in the Republican direction. But Arkansas is one of those places, like West Virginia, where Barack Obama was unusually unpopular, so Democrats might actually be better off without him exerting downward pressure at the top of the ticket.

If that turns out to be the case, Griffin may have just made life a lot more difficult for his party, especially if his premature retirement adds to the growing narrative that Republicans are starting to appear endangered in next year's elections. As always, we'll be following all developments here, so stick with Daily Kos Elections for our coverage of this unfolding race.

Reposted from Daily Kos Labor by Laura Clawson

The AFL-CIO's Damon Silvers continues reminding the Obama administration and Democratic members of Congress what it would look like if they tried to cut Social Security, Medicare and Medicaid. And you can't say he's not direct or colorful:

“The labor movement is going to fight to the death to stop cuts to Social Security and Medicare and Medicaid,” AFL-CIO policy director Damon Silvers told Salon Thursday afternoon. “Not ‘unreasonable cuts.’ Not ‘cuts without tax increases.’ Cuts period. We’re against all of them, we will fight them ferociously, and we will give no cover to any Democrat who supports them.”

Silvers said it would be “simply an invitation to a fratricide in the Democratic Party” for the president to take up a renewed push for “chained CPI,” a proposed change in cost of living calculations that would reduce future Social Security benefits. “It hits the absolute most vulnerable people …” charged Silvers. “It’s a proposal that has no merit at all other than that billionaires like it.”

Billionaires sure do like it, but implicit in everything Silvers says is that it's not just unions or the famed professional left that don't want to see these programs cut, it's, well, basically everyone. For Democrats to offer up cuts to these programs would mean giving Republicans a weapon that would be used in a million campaign ads. Yes, those campaign ads would be being run by the exact billionaires that wanted to see Social Security, Medicare and Medicaid cut to begin with. Yes, the ads would be run to promote Republican politicians that would make more and deeper cuts if they could. No matter. The ads would run. And voters would be—rightly—furious. The Democratic base would be dispirited and disgusted. Low-information swing voters would be hearing that Democrats were responsible and Republicans were the answer. It would be armageddon for Democrats.

So when unions or whoever else say they're going to fight a grand bargain with these cuts, they're fighting primarily for the millions of Americans whose lives would be harmed, who might be thrown into poverty or left to sicken and die because they're poor. But they're also fighting for the immediate electoral fortunes of the Democratic Party. Even if they have to fight Democratic politicians to do it.

Revealed in Wisconsin Governor and reputed 2016 hopeful Scott Walker's new book:

Walker spends a chapter dissecting Romney's campaign. He recounts an email he sent to voicing his frustrations about its tone, and urging Romney to show more passion, get out from behind the podium and connect directly with voters "like you did to the Olympic athletes" when Romney oversaw the 2002 Winter Olympics. Walker said he got no response.

Man, just imagine how how lucky we are that Walker was too lazy to send a text, or make a phone call, or do something, anything, that might have gotten his message through to Romneyland, because clearly, if Walker hadn't settled for simply firing an email off into the ether, Mitt would be president today.

President Obama will address the Affordable Care Act—including the rocky rollout of healthcare.gov—in remarks from the White House scheduled for 11:25 AM ET. Live video is embedded above and we'll post updates throughout his remarks.

8:34 AM PT: President Obama has taken the podium.

8:35 AM PT: "About three weeks ago as the federal government shutdown, the Affordable Care Act marketplaces opened." Obama says: Now that the shutdown is over, we're going to try to get the marketplaces working better.

8:36 AM PT: Obama acknowledges that healthcare.gov hasn't worked as well as it was supposed to, but says it is nonetheless making coverage available to thousands of Americans. Obama says he wants to describe the benefits of Obamacare and what is being done to make healthcare.gov work better.

8:37 AM PT: Obama notes the ACA is "more than just a website." Trying to remind people that most of the people who benefit because of Obamacare don't actually get the benefits through the marketplaces, which are designed to allow individuals to shop for insurance.

8:39 AM PT: Obama also notes the Medicaid expansion of Obamacare—and praises governor who accepted Medicaid expansion. But: "If you're one of the 15 percent of Americans that doesn't have health insurance [...] October 1 was an important date. That's when we opened the new marketplaces [for these individuals ...]" Goes on to explain the theory behind marketplaces.

8:43 AM PT: Obama talks about how 20 million people have visited healthcare.gov without explicitly blaming the site's problems on the traffic, though in the absence of a competing explanation, people may draw the conclusion that the traffic is the reason for the issues, which is not the case.

8:46 AM PT: "The problem has been the website ... has not been working the way it should. ... I want people to get this great product [...] there's no excuse [...]" but are being "fixed." This is good stuff here—taking ownership.

8:47 AM PT: Obama reminds people that the enrollment period lasts through March 31. (However, to get coverage starting January 1, you need to sign up by December 15.)

8:51 AM PT: Obama repeats that the the site will be fixed, but also says there are ways to get coverage without using the site. "If you're having problems with the website, or" would just rather talk to someone on the phone, "yesterday, we've updated the web site" with information on how to do this. "The phone number for these calls is 1-800-318-2596."

8:51 AM PT: Obama says it takes 25 minutes to 45 minutes.

8:53 AM PT: "Nobody is madder than me that the website isn't working as well as it should, which means it's going to be fixed."

8:56 AM PT: Obama notes that given the website problems, Republicans may attack, but: "We did not wage this long and contentious battle over a website." We did it, he said, to provide the security of good and affordable health insurance.

8:57 AM PT: "It's time for folks to stop rooting for its failure."

9:00 AM PT: Shorter President Obama: The website sucks, but we'll fix it, and it's worth it to fix it, because affordable, quality health insurance is essential for all Americans.

9:03 AM PT: In some ways, it doesn't even matter what President Obama said today, because to the extent that the debate is over whether or not healthcare.gov is working, it means the debate over Obamacare has moved into the technocratic realm. And the debate is in the technocratic realm, it suggests we're moving beyond a purely ideological battle—and that the idea that everybody ought to have access to affordable, quality health care is no longer the central issue.

That CNN poll that demonstrates that yes, Republicans really did shoot themselves in the foot with their government shutdown and debt ceiling brinksmanship, also demonstrated, again, that Obamcare isn't so unpopular these days.

Even though they lost this round, conservatives vow to continue their fight to dismantle Obamacare. And they point to major troubles with the rollout of the website where Americans without insurance can enroll in the new health care exchanges. [...]

According to the poll, just more than four in 10 say they favor the law, with 56% opposed to it.

But of those opposed, 38% say they are against the law because they think it's too liberal and 12% say it's not liberal enough. That means that 53% either support Obamacare, or say it's not liberal enough.

Huh, about the same percentage (54 percent) that say "it's a bad thing that the GOP controls the House." Seriously, Republicans, we're done with this fight. The majority wasn't with you on repeal: In March, 2011, in May, 2011 (and that's a Rasmussen poll!), in July, 2012, in November, 2012 (as if the election weren't indication enough), and finally July of this year.

Seriously, enough.

Heritage head Jim DeMint:

Yes, I can hear many conservative friends saying to me right around this point: "Jim, we agree with you that ObamaCare is going to wreck the country, but elections have consequences." I have three responses [...]

[T]he lives of most Americans are not dominated by the electoral cycle. They shouldn't have to wait three more years for Congress to give them relief from this law, especially when the president has so frequently given waivers to his friends. Full legislative repeal may not be possible while President Obama remains in office, but delaying implementation by withholding funds from a law that is proven to be unfair, unworkable and unaffordable is a reasonable and necessary fight.

We had to wait several election cycles to end the Republican war in Iraq, because that's how democracy works. The party in power implements stuff, and if people don't like it, they take it out on that party at the polls. It's called D-E-M-O-C-R-A-C-Y.

DeMint dismisses the 2012 elections as a "mistrial on ObamaCare" which is rich. If it was a "mistrial," it was because Republican primary voters didn't care enough about the issue to nominate one of the architects of Obamacare, Mitt Romney, and the American public didn't consider it the second coming of Hitler. But the law was certainly litigated.

But the more fundamental problem here is DeMint's utter rejection of our nation's democracy. He doesn't like something, he shouldn't have to use the democratic procedures enshrined in the Constitution he (and every teabagger) claims to revere. Wait for the next election? That's for chumps!

Expect their hostility toward democracy to grow as demographic changes make it harder for them to win anything outside of rural and southern states and heavily gerrymandered districts.

Reposted from Comics by Tom Tomorrow

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The fallout from the Republican shutdown continues, this time according to a new CNN/ORC International poll:

According to the survey, 54% say it's a bad thing that the GOP controls the House, up 11 points from last December, soon after the 2012 elections when the Republicans kept control of the chamber. Only 38% say it's a good thing the GOP controls the House, a 13-point dive from the end of last year.

This is the first time since the Republicans won back control of the House in the 2010 elections that a majority say their control of the chamber is bad for the country.

There's no word on what America thinks about Ted Cruz being in control of the chamber.

And with Republicans in the House having pledged their fealty to Speaker of the House John Boehner in the wake of their shutdown:

And the CNN/ORC International survey also indicates that more than six in 10 Americans say that Speaker of the House John Boehner should be replaced.

... proving once again that Republicans are out of touch with most Americans.  

Reposted from Daily Kos Elections by David Nir Leading Off:

• FL-13: Veteran GOP Rep. Bill Young, who had just announced his retirement from Congress after a 30-year tenure less than weeks ago, died on Friday evening at the age of 82. That followed a premature report of his death earlier last week, which prompted his staff to acknowledge that he was in the hospital and gravely ill. Young began his career as a conservative (indeed, when he first joined the Florida Senate in 1960, he was the only Republican senator in the entire state), but as American politics moved to the right, he found himself a branded a "moderate" in his later years.

Thanks to that reputation and his personal popularity, Young became an institution in the Tampa area and never faced a serious re-election threat, despite representing a district that had trended blue and very narrowly went for Barack Obama in 2012. So when he said he wouldn't seek re-election, interest in his seat instantly spiked on both sides. A number of candidates had already declined bids, but now the situation has changed, since Young's death will require a special election. So far, Democrat Jessica Ehrlich, who challenged young last year and was seeking a rematch even before the seat became open, is the only declared candidate.

Florida law is vague, though, on when a special must be held. The state last saw a congressional vacancy in Jan. 2010, when Dem Rep. Robert Wexler stepped down from his seat in the 19th District. The special took place exactly 100 days later, though Wexler had announced his resignation the previous October. A decade earlier, it took a mere 41 days to hold a special to replace GOP Rep. Joe Scarborough in the 1st, though like Wexler, he announced his resignation months in advance.

So if the past is anything to go by, we're probably looking at an election sometime between February and April, with primaries to be held before then. One decent guess is March 11, as a number of local elections are on tap that day.

Candidates who'd previously said no will likely be asked about their intentions again, while many others are still considering, so expect a fluid situation for now. Democrats will be eager to try to capitalize on their momentum from the shutdown and drive a narrative that further pickups are in reach next year. Republicans, of course, will be motivated to drive a stake into that storyline, so this will be an intense race. And as always, we'll be keeping track of all developments here at Daily Kos Elections.

Daily Kos Radio's Kagro in the Morning show podcasts are now available through iTunes.

Weird.

It's almost as if I feel lost without the government shutdown! I think I have Stockholm Syndrome.

We've still got some follow-up to do on that debacle, though. Analyses, both from the left and the right, are still streaming in. And presumably polling, as well. Plus, people are beginning to ask questions about just what we're in for in the future, both short term and long.

We'll throw our hands up and profess not to know. Won't you join us?

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From the GREAT STATE OF MAINE…

Monday Morning Poetry Slam

Very clever, Mr. Cruz.

You sharpened your extremist views
Consulted your fundraising muse
From the tea party you took your cues
With extremists you did schmooze
(The ones who couldn't buy themselves clues)
And then you lit the fuse
In fancy wingtip shoes

Like molasses, your venom did ooze
Our democracy you did misuse
While orchestrating your ruse
Tightening your screws
And making your GOP colleagues choose
(Through breath reeking of booze)
The manner by which they would all lose
Leaving the Grand Old Party singin' the blues

I saw the outcome on the evening news
The backlash left you with a Texas-size bruise

Oh, yes. Very clever indeed, Mr. Cruz.

Cheers and Jeers starts below the fold... [Swoosh!!] RIGHTNOW! [Gong!!]

Jared Bernstein at the Huffington Post asks What's Wrong With America?:

I suspect the answer to the question of what's gone wrong has many answers. My readers know mine: it's the result of the toxic, and uniquely American, cocktail of concentrated wealth and money in politics. That combination blocks the policy set that would begin to address the challenges we face and promotes the ones you see around you: constant fiscal squabbles powered by rhetorical obsession with public debts and deficits that has a) nothing to do with our actual fiscal challenges (ones that Obamacare-type changes may actually behelping us to meet) and b) is "rhetorical" in the sense that it's not about real solutions as about reducing taxes and shrinking government.

Paul Krugman at The New York Times rips the Obamacare-haters Lousy Medicaid Arguments:

O.K., you know what to do: Google “spurious correlation health.” You are immediately led to the tale of certain Pacific Islanders who long believed that having lice made you healthy, because they observed that people with lice were, typically, healthier than those without. They were, of course, mixing up cause and effect: lice tend to infest the healthy, so they were a consequence, not a cause, of good health.

The application to Medicaid should be obvious. Sick people are likely to have low incomes; more generally, low-income Americans who qualify for Medicaid just tend in general to have poor health. So pointing to a correlation between Medicaid and poor health as evidence that Medicaid actually hurts its recipients is as foolish as claiming that lice make you healthy. It is, as I said, a lousy argument.

And the reliance on such arguments is itself deeply revealing, because it illustrates the right’s intellectual decline.

The Editorial Board of the Independent offers No Tears for JP Morgan; the reported fine is less severe than it looks:

Reports that the US banking giant JP Morgan has reached an agreement to pay a record settlement to the US Justice Department over mis-sold securities are drawing superlatives. The bank is America’s biggest and the tentatively agreed figure of $13bn, if it is paid out, would be the largest single settlement ever offered by an American company.

While the fine looks colossal, we need to keep in mind that JP Morgan is worth over $2.5 trillion and recorded quarterly profits of around $6bn last year. It posted a loss over the last quarter, but only because it set aside billions in legal bills. Strip that out, and the bank would have recorded another $6bn profit in September.

Below the fold you'll find additional pundit excerpts and links.