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Labor's problem: workers or the self-employed?

Using the Australian Election Survey and logistic regression to estimate impact of becoming self-employed on the votes of male manual workers. I have also included deunionisation (a likely consequence of self-employment). This chart shows predicted Labor vote 1993-2010. Summary self-employment has a negative impact on Labor vote but this impact has actually declined slightly since 1993. Labor has a workers’ problem not a self-employment problem.

Australian liberalism, Australian conservatism and trade unionism

 

Writing a paper about small business in Australia. An extract on the attitudes of Australian conservatives to trade unions from : Continue reading Australian liberalism, Australian conservatism and trade unionism

New Communists

An interesting critique of the ‘new Communists’ here that in part misses the point. Some observations drawn from the history of real Communism and real anti-Communism. Continue reading New Communists

Queensland Labor's lessons for state politics

Why is Labor’s era in Queensland coming to an end? The short answer is that Queensland is a naturally conservative state. I argue that different states may have a natural propensity to support Labor or the Coalition, levels of unionization, manufacturing employment, educational levels and ethnic diversity are significant here. However this does not imply that the natural minority party will never win an election. Queensland is a notable example Labor has dominated state politics for two decades but at the federal level Labor has only twice secured a majority of the two-party vote in this period. Continue reading Queensland Labor’s lessons for state politics

Superannuation & contraception in the US & Australia

In the 1980s Australian unions pursued a retirement income strategy that centered on the inclusion of superannuation in agreements with employers. Continue reading Superannuation & contraception in the US & Australia

Labor without heartlands?

Been looking over Antony Green’s recent report (pdf) on the 2011 NSW election and inspired by comments from Penny Sharpe thought it was interesting to consider what it reveals about the disappearance of Labor’s heartlands and how 2011 compared to Labor’s most severe previous defeat in 1932. For 2011 Green provides lists of the best and worse polling booths for registered parties. There were six (!) booths where Labor polled over 60% of the first preference vote. Green doesn’t say how many polling booths there were across the state but a rough estimate suggests well over 2000. Three of the 60%+ Labor booths are rural indigenous communities (two in the ultra-safe National Party electorate of Barwon) the others are areas of extreme poverty and social exclusion. There are almost no Labor heartlands left where the party can rely on huge local majorities and were Labor is the hegemonic local force, even when the party does very poorly elsewhere. Some research I have done on the 1890s illustrates this: Labor had a low statewide vote during its first decade, there was no inevitable march to power, but the party did develop core regional strongholds from it advanced outward after 1901.

It is true that overall Labor in 2011 polled very poorly with a statewide vote of only 25.6%. However at occasions in the past Labor polled poorly but retained its heartlands. NSW politics in 1931-32 provides an example. At the 1931 Senate election there were two competing Labor parties in NSW, the largest was the Lang-controlled state branch which received 30.8%. At the 1932 state election the state ALP polled 40.2%. Both of these elections were severe Labor defeats, vast numbers of working-class voters did not vote for Lang’s party. In 1932 Lang Labor lost electorates such as Granville which after it was regained in 1938 remained a Labor seat until 2011. In 1932 Labor even lost Canterbury. There were very large swings against Labor. However despite this Labor retained significant regional heartlands where it was the hegemonic force. Polling booth returns are not extant for the 1931 Senate election and I do not have a database for the 1932 election by booth, but what I do are votes for the 418 subdivisions that made up state and federal electorates. In 1931 Lang Labor polled over 60% in 16 subdivisions all in the inner city, inner west and the Hunter coalfields. In 1932 it polled over 60% in 43 subdivisions. The number of polling booths in which Labor would have secured these levels of support would have been much higher. If in 2011 votes had been counted by subdivisions similar in size to those of 1931-32 there would have been none in which Labor polled over 60%. In the 1930s Labor had significant heartlands in 2011 it has none (even social disadvantage today is much more dependent on geographical location than it was previously as Bob Gregory from ANU has shown). The Hunter coalfields and inner city provided a Labor community in the 1930s now we have only a few pockets of extreme social exclusion where I would guess political activism is non-existent: how many ALP members in Wallaga Lake Koori Village (82% Labor in 2011) or Warilla North (64.5% Labor in 2011, some local background here)? In 1932 there would have been many ALP members in Waterloo (77.1% Labor in 1932).

Libertarians for sexual assault?

Why are libertarians so conservative? Libertarian intellectuals usually deny this insisting that they are beyond left and right, but libertarianism as a mass movement sits squarely on the right of the political spectrum as demonstrated by Ron Paul. One noteworthy example has been in debates about legislation proposed in Virginia to require women to undergo an ultrasound before an abortion. Proponents of the legislation claim that this is not an assault: Continue reading Libertarians for sexual assault?

American persistence and the future of social democracy

It has been a popular meme in recent years that American power is in decline. China’s rise is impressive, although some predict a Chinese crash. However a recent report by HSBC on the world economy in 2050 casts doubt on the assumption of American decline and sheds some light on the prospects of social democracy. It predicts that by 2050 the US will indeed be the second-largest economy in the world, about 10% behind China. Continue reading American persistence and the future of social democracy

Why the 1967 referendum would be defeated in 2013

Recent analyses of public opinion In the United States have confirmed the significance of racial resentment for evaluations of Barack Obama. The report of the committee on the constitutional recognition of indigenous people has revived discussion of the lessons of the 1967 referendum. Unfortunately this discussion has ignored the significance of racial resentment in Australian politics.Recent Australian history demonstrates that the 1967 referendum would have been defeated if put to voters now.

The ‘no’ vote at this referendum was 9.23%  was small but significant. The ‘no’ vote was highest in rural and remote areas with a large indigenous population. It was over 18% in Moore, Canning and Kalgoorlie in Western Australia, Leichardt & Kennedy in Queensland and Gwydir in New South Wales. The far right campaigned against the referendum, in particular the League of Rights. David Kemp, Monash political scientist and later Liberal MP and Minister under Howard, explained the ‘no’ vote:

The intensity of racial feeling is related to the extent of contact between the races and…the proposed constitutional amendment was identified as a proposal favourable to Aborigines.

Kemp identified this rural racism as a component of a conservatism  that could potentially join forces with a general reaction against educated elites. The late 1960s were a time in which conservatives began to consider the utility of race as political tool. Once Labor had been the most racist party in Australian politics, as shown by its obsessive support of White Australia. But as the Coalition floundered in the early 1970s some conservatives suggested that Labor could be targeted as the party of non-white immigration.  In the end the Whitlam government proved was able to bring about its own demise a race campaign was not required.

The hostility to indigenous claims apparent in the 1967 ‘No’ vote was then associated with the extreme fringe of conservatism, but in later decades opposition to indigenous claims would enter the conservative mainstream. In the decades aboriginal people came from the fringes of national debates to the centre, most Australians may have voted ‘Yes’ in a mood of general if passing benevolence towards a people they had little if any personal contact with. As aboriginal people made became significant political actors it became to mobilize public opinion against them, the campaign against national land rights legislation as proposed by the Hawke government was an example of this. It was a template for the recent campaign against the mining tax, and both campaigns recruited the  Western Australian Labor Party. In a majoritarian democracy there are limits to what minority groups can achieve. Thus there is a logic in aboriginal people (and other minorities such as asylum-seekers today, Communists in the 1950s) pursuing their interest through the courts. Courts are more remote from public opinion. It is certainly true that the extent to which courts can act independently of parliament is limited but they have a real if limited degree of autonomy. The Mabo and Wik decisions demonstrated this. The extension of the property rights of indigenous people would not have occurred if it had been left to parliament. Would a system of dedicated electorates for indigenous people make a difference? Certainly in New Zealand it has weakened the influence of the far right within mainstream conservatism.

Opposition to the assertiveness of indigenous people contributed to the far right’s electoral breakthrough with Pauline Hanson and One Nation. The far right exercised a strong appeal to many more mainstream conservatives. At the 1998 Queensland election the Liberals and Nationals directed preferences to Hanson’s party ahead of the ALP. If the right had polled slightly better at this election the outcome would have been a Coalition government supported in power by One nation who would have exercised substantial influence. In the late 1960s the far anti-aboriginal right had been a fringe element in conservative politics but by the late 1990s the far right was a major player in conservative politics. We can compare the rise of One nation and its political respectability in the late 1990s to the contemporary upsurge of anti-Islam far right parties in Europe. The decision of the Howard government to amend the Native Title Act to weaken indigenous property rights in the aftermath of the Wik judgment reflected the influence of the far right, and the sympathy felt for some aspects of its program by John Howard. In the end the legislation passed Parliament with the support of independent Senator Brian Harradine. At the time Harradine and his defenders argued it was necessary to avoid an election fought on race. Certainly the Howard government believed it could win an election on the issues. What occurred was the anti-aboriginal right won without a fight, it was an impressive achievement, the moderate right that had supported Land rights in 1976 was defeated, Harradine himself encapsulated that shift. The conservative triumph impacted on the increasingly cautious approach to native title taken by the courts.

In the decades after the 1998 aboriginal issues moved of the national agenda. Conservatives were content with their 1998 victory whilst One Nation failed to follow up on their political breakthrough. Many conservatives became more relaxed about indigenous claims. Many on the broader left had hoped that we now lived in The Age of Mabo (the title of a long ago Deakin Australian Studies unit) that indigenous claims presaged radical challenge to the nation-state. Yet indigenous communities could not undertake this challenge on their own, any more than socialism in one country was possible after the defeat of the European revolutions. Many indigenous communities lapsed into despair and hopelessness characteristic of colonial populations. For many on the old anti-aboriginal rights the problems of some indigenous communities were viewed with delight whilst the crisis served to demobilize some who supported indigenous claims.

The report of the committee on constitutional recognition however revived the cause of the anti-aboriginal right. The suggestion that the Constitution include a prohibition on racial discrimination together with a power for the Commonwealth to legislate for Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander peoples, has been met with hostility on the moderate right such as Liberal Senator George Brandis. Their argument is that indigenous people should trust in the good intentions of the non-indigenous population (a similar faith is apparent in the recent claim of moderate US Republican Chris Christie that the civil rights struggle could been resolved by putting African-American claims to a referendum). Gerald Henderson hints that it would be unfortunate to have a referendum for constitutional recognition of the indigenous Australians to fail, but does not acknowledge that the failure would be because as in 1998 conservatives would have successfully mobilised around a racial banner. The ‘moderate’ right in Australia now defers to the far right on key aspects of indigenous policy they are unwilling to challenge their allies further to the right. No enemies on the right.

http://www.newjerseynewsroom.com/state/christie-says-civil-rights-movement-could-have-been-settled-through-a-ballot-referendum

A French left without workers?

The rise of the French National Front evokes alarm on the left. Actually I think Marie Le Pen is unelectable whoever she runs against. The Presidential system in France was introduced to marginalize the Communist Party which could never secure a majority in a Presidential contest. Now the system works against the National Front. Whoever runs against le Pen is assured of victory. My concern is somewhat different. The National Front attracts increasing support from manual workers, Arthur Goldhammer in April: Continue reading A French left without workers?