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Chris Harman, economic dynamics, simultaneous equations

March 16, 2013

It’s ten years ago this month that the Marxist economist Michael Kidron died. Kidron’s work today is woefully and unfairly neglected, but his concerns – around the fusion of state and capital, and environmental destruction especially – now look far ahead of their time.

It was in the course of writing an appreciation of Kidron that I was ended up rereading Chris Harman’s Explaining the Crisis, and noticed a glaring theoretical flaw I’d failed to spot in the past (pp.24 et seq.). Harman, in seeking to defend an orthodox interpretation of Marx’s Capital with the falling rate of profit as the principle theory of crisis, attacks those making use of simultaneous equations solutions to the transformation problem.  (It’s around about here that things are going to get obscure – apologies.) In particular, he – correctly – indicates that input prices for commodities used in production will vary from output prices, but then claims that the use of simultaneous equations solutions to the price system enforce an equation between the two. His preferred “solution” to the transformation problem involves taking a set of input prices for the production process, and then allowing them to be transformed (through the production process) into a different set of prices. The prices change because of the application of labour to the input commodities; the new output necessarily reflects a different labour content. Simultaneous equations solutions, Harman claims, collapse this dynamic process of production.

But this won’t do. As Ajit Sinha notes of Andrew Kilman’s Reclaiming Capital, in his devastating review, it involves a fundamental misunderstanding of the procedure of simultaneous equations. The problem is that once the outputs have been produced by the economy, they then re-enter a further round of production, forming another new set of input prices. This process is continuous under capitalism: the system does not just produce (say) one year’s worth of output, and then stop. In other words, we can’t just calculate one round of production – we have to keep running the system forward until we arrive at a stable set of prices for the economy, so that every year’s worth of output forms the following year’s input, and so on.

This is precisely what the simultaneous equations method attempts to do: they attempt to show how the system, on the basis of Marx’s assumptions about the labour theory of value, produces a stable set of prices for all commodities produced. All Harman has done here is to (in effect) follow the first step in finding  a solution to simultaneous equation solution, and then declare that the entire system is thereby solved. It isn’t.

So Harman got the working substantially wrong – echoing, it would seem, the same error made by Marx. His defence, in Explaining the Crisis, of the falling rate of profit, collapses as a result of it. But he got the *intuition*  correct. It is absolutely true that capitalism is a dynamic system because it depends on the production of commodities, not just “by commodities” (in Sraffa’s phrase) but over time by labour. Simultaneous equations solutions to the price system assume away too much, collapsing that dynamic production process into a problem of the exchange of produced commodities only. To grasp that dynamic, however, requires to specify it properly – the “commonsense” solution provided by Harman, and its scholastic elaboration by Kliman, is not adequate to the task. The approach of Duncan Foley (1982), specifying formally the dynamic systems of prices and values, looks much more promising – and has been used fruitfully in recent work by Paulo dos Santos and Giorgos Galanis, for instance. As far as I can tell, Harman never referred to it, which is a great shame: his basically correct insight might not have lead, then, to a basically incorrect theory.

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Keynes, “Keynes”, and Keynes

October 9, 2012

This was my reply to Tad Tietze’s note on the left and Keynesianism, over on Facebook, which followed a discussion about Syriza and its programme for Greece. It’s been suggested that it’s quite a useful summary of the left’s various confusions about Keynes, so I’m reposting it here – I think it can stand by itself:

The “confusion” Tad mentions is the one that, unfortunately, exists across the left and into wider society. It falls into at least three parts: first, over what anyone understands by “Keynesianism”; second, over what Keynesians themselves say; third, over what Keynes himself actually said or thought. The last, by itself, is of largely academic interest, but it tends to end up creeping into – and informing – the other two.

Read the rest of this entry »

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Delay, delay, delay

March 11, 2010

Apologies for the pause in posting: I’ve been ferociously busy with other things, not least of which was the launch of the new, improved Counterfire website. Feedback so far has been (almost) universally excellent, and site visits seriously in excess of what I (at least) anticipated. It’s too early to say whether this early success will continue, but I think our hunch about the need for an open, accessible UK lefty website is going to pay off.

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Senor Coconut

March 6, 2010
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Ashcroft and nostalgia computing

March 3, 2010

Ashcroft the non-dom close to brewing into a proper, old-fashioned Tory scandal:

Revenue investigators were last night facing demands to launch an inquiry into the tax status of Lord Ashcroft, the billionaire businessman bankrolling the Consevative party, amid new questions about how he was allowed to break a promise to permanently base himself in the UK to secure a seat in the House of Lords.

As anger grew over Ashcroft’s admission that he has secretly remained a non-dom for the nine years he has sat in parliament, there were separate calls for inquiries into his nomination for a peerage in 2000 and his tax affairs.

In a knowing 2010 twist on a mid-90s classic, the foreign businessman lavishing the cash about is actually English and resident here. It’s not nostalgia politics, it’s self-aware, ironic nostalgia politics.

Hopefully Ashcroft can be persuaded onto one of those I LUV 1994 programmes to talk about what japes they all used to have with the citrus fruit and the brown envelopes and whatnot.

The benefactors of Ashcroft’s tax-free largesse also have a whiff of something over-familiar. Wired magazine this month has a feature on “Merlin”, the computerised vote-targeting system, an update of Labour’s 1997 system, “Excalibur”. The Guardian blog has some details:

Merlin allows the party to combine information about a local area gathered from canvass sheets with Mosaic – a subtle classification of voter groups developed by the research firm Experian, which gives a detailed breakdown of 65 consumer “tribes” such as “cafe bar professionals” and “high spending families”. Crabtree writes: “Those socio-demographic categories let candidates see who lives in their patch simply by typing in a postcode”.

This sort of detailed voter information is the life-blood of an election campaign. But there’s nothing new about it.

For well over a century, mass, democratic politics has made use of this sort knowledge. Local activists have always had to know what sort of person they would find behind any particular door. Success in an election campaign would depend on knowing how to target messages. Years of practical, on-the-ground experience have built up inside the major political parties.

The Tories’ system effectively digitises that knowledge base, like copying vinyl records onto CDs. The same underlying information is there, just in a different format. So it’s not clear Merlin does anything more sophisticated than what a well-informed local party branch could do.

And a computer system, however sophisticated, cannot make the imaginative leaps that people can. Politics is a creative art. Initiative and imagination matter.

Except, of course, allowing local activists’ the initiative is something Cameron’s team have become rather wary of.

An expensive new system like Merlin would be a good way to challenge local control. And it might compensate for withered local organisations. In a tight election, that can matter. But it’s no magic wand.

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Ducks, Chinese burns, hurled paper balls

February 28, 2010

Far be it for this blog not to comment on the story of the year, nay, decade, as the bullying folderol rumbles on into its second tedious week.

It’s manufactured nonsense, with its attendant crowd of quick-buck merchants flogging either books, or (muffled laughter) “human resources consultancy”. Richard Seymour has a good take on it here.

Had Brown been lurking about in St James’ Park, giving Chinese burns to schoolkids and stealing their lunch money, or kicking the ducks, there might have been a more convincing public outcry.

But when it’s faceless senior advisors and members of the PM’s inner circle being subjected to the odd tirade – really, who cares? Bullying at work is serious, of course, but there’s a world of difference between the average harassed worker, and the powerful, well-rewarded, well-connected aide to the Prime Minister.

There are too many people too interested in the story’s prolonged life for this one to die a quiet death just yet. Its real impact, however, is minimal.

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Platoons

February 26, 2010

David Marquand has an interesting piece, also in the New Statesman, arguing that Cameron’s “modernisation” of the Conservative Party is entirely in keeping with the traditions of Edmund Burke and Tory paternalism. On this basis, the left “dismiss Cameron at their peril”. I’m not convinced – Cameron, as discussed below, hasn’t “modernised” very much. It’s also not clear that Burke’s “little platoons” of stable Tory support still function in quite the way he intended; still, it’s a well-written article, and worth a read.

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