Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts
Date: September to November 2013
Near median and high flows likely for most forecast locations
Streamflow forecasts for the September to November period suggest that near median and high flows are more likely for 37 and 21 out of 70 locations respectively. High August streamflows occurred at 30 out of 70 locations across eastern Australia. Near median August streamflows were recorded at 23 locations and low flows were recorded at 16 locations. The El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) has remained neutral since mid-2012. A wetter than normal September to November period is more likely for southeast Australia and the Top End of the Northern Territory.
Australia Victoria Southern New South Wales Northern New South Wales Southern Queensland Northern Queensland Cape York Peninsula Northern Territory, or click on the rectangles on the Australia map below to select a particular region. Then click on the pie charts to go directly to the most recent forecasts.
Victoria
Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts
for September to November 2013
Southern New South Wales
Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts
for September to November 2013
Northern New South Wales
Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts
for September to November 2013
Northern Queensland
Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts
for September to November 2013
Southern Queensland
Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts
for September to November 2013
Cape York Peninsula
Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts
for September to November 2013
Northern Territory
Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts
for September to November 2013
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Moderate to high skill
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Low skill or missing climate data
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Very low skill or missing antecedent condition data
Note: The locations on the map are either site-based forecasts or total catchment inflow forecasts. Site information provides details on which locations are site-based or total inflow forecasts. For more details about how the pie chart forecasts are displayed go to the Frequently Asked Questions.
Moderate forecast skill for most locations
The forecast skill scores for the September-October-November period are high for eight out of 70 locations, moderate for 49 locations, low for nine locations and very low for four locations. Forecasts that have low skill are displayed as faded pie charts on the maps. Skill scores for these forecasts exceed those obtained from using the historical record to calculate probabilities (historical reference). The forecasts with very low skill are displayed as grey pie charts on the maps.
August catchment conditions
August rainfall was below to very much below average for most of New South Wales and Queensland. Rainfall was average to above average for the forecast catchments in Victoria, northwestern Queensland and the Northern Territory. More information about August weather and climate conditions can be found in the state climate summaries for Victoria, New South Wales, Queensland and Northern Territory.
High August streamflows were recorded at 30 out of the 70 forecast locations and near median August streamflows were recorded at 23 locations. Low streamflows were observed at 16 locations in the Northern Territory, New South Wales and Victoria. A record high August streamflow was observed at Swanfels, which is located in the Condamine-Culgoa basin in southern Queensland. Observed streamflow at Swanfels was also a record high in January and has continued to be high for all of 2013.
Streamflow forecasts for September to November
High and near median streamflows for the September to November forecast period are more likely at 21 and 37 locations respectively. Low flows are forecast to be more likely at seven locations in Victoria and New South Wales.
The El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) has remained neutral since mid-2012. The climate models surveyed by the Bureau of Meteorology suggest the tropical Pacific will remain ENSO-neutral for the rest of the year. The negative Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) has weakened over recent weeks, with latest values of the index in the neutral range. Climate models are mixed, with some suggesting neutral IOD values for the months ahead, and some indicating negative IOD values may persist until at least mid-spring. Negative IOD events during winter-spring are associated with above-average rainfall over southern Australia and increased humidity over parts of northern Australia.
A wetter than normal season is more likely for southeast Australia and the Top End of the Northern Territory. The chances of a wetter or drier than normal season are roughly equal over Queensland and the rest of the Northern Territory. Climate influences include a weakening negative Indian Ocean Dipole, a neutral-to-cool tropical Pacific, and locally warm sea surface temperatures.
For the latest ENSO Wrap-Up go to ENSO Wrap-Up. For detailed information on Australia's climate go to Climate Information. For the latest rainfall outlook go to Rainfall outlook.
