Advanced Football Analytics
Advanced Football Analytics (formerly Advanced NFL Stats) is a website dedicated to the analysis of the National Football League (NFL) using mathematical and statistical methods. The site's lead author is noted football researcher and analyst Brian Burke. Burke is a regular contributor to The New York Times' NFL coverage,The Washington Post's Redskins coverage, and supplies research for other notable publications and writers.
Advanced Football Analytics features a variety of analytical techniques and applications. The site predicts game outcomes and rates teams using a logistic regression model based on team efficiency statistics. It also features a live in-game win probability model that estimates the chances either opponent will win a game in progress. Advanced Football Analytics uses its win probability model to analyze strategic coaching decisions such as whether to kick or attempt first down conversions.
Research topics include game theory applications, luck and randomness, play calling, home field advantage, run-pass balance, and the relative importance of various facets of performance (offensive passing, offensive rushing, defensive passing, etc.). Also featured is research on weather factors, team payroll, and the NFL Draft.
