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A world map showing countries by fertility rate, according to the CIA World Factbook's 2012 data.

7-8 Children   6-7 Children   5-6 Children   4-5 Children

3-4 Children   2-3 Children   1-2 Children   0-1 Children

The total fertility rate (TFR, sometimes also called the fertility rate, period total fertility rate (PTFR) or total period fertility rate (TPFR) of a population is the average number of children that would be born to a woman over her lifetime if

1. she were to experience the exact current age-specific fertility rates (ASFRs) through her lifetime, and
2. she were to survive from birth through the end of her reproductive life.^[1]

It is obtained by summing the single-year age-specific rates at a given time.

Parameter characteristics[link]

The TFR is a synthetic rate, not based on the fertility of any real group of women since this would involve waiting until they had completed childbearing. Nor is it based on counting up the total number of children actually born over their lifetime. Instead, the TFR is based on the age-specific fertility rates of women in their "child-bearing years," which in conventional international statistical usage is ages 15–44 or 15-49.^[3]

The TFR is, therefore, a measure of the fertility of an imaginary woman who passes through her reproductive life subject to all the age-specific fertility rates for ages 15–49 that were recorded for a given population in a given year. The TFR represents the average number of children a woman would have were she to fast-forward through all her childbearing years in a single year, under all the age-specific fertility rates for that year. In other words, this rate is the number of children a woman would have if she was subject to prevailing fertility rates at all ages from a single given year, and survives throughout all her childbearing years.

Related parameters[link]

Net reproduction rate[link]

An alternative fertility measure is the net reproduction rate (NRR), which measures the number of daughters a woman would have in her lifetime if she were subject to prevailing age-specific fertility and mortality rates in the given year. When the NRR is exactly one, then each generation of women is exactly reproducing itself. The NRR is less widely used than the TFR, and the United Nations stopped reporting NRR data for member nations after 1998. But the NRR is particularly relevant where the number of male babies born is very high – see gender imbalance and sex selection. This is a significant factor in world population, due to the high level of gender imbalance in the very populous nations of China and India. The gross reproduction rate (GRR), is the same as the NRR, except that - like the TFR - it ignores life expectancy.

Total period fertility rate[link]

The TFR (or TPFR—total period fertility rate) is a better index of fertility than the Crude birth rate (annual number of births per thousand population) because it is independent of the age structure of the population, but it is a poorer estimate of actual completed family size than the total cohort fertility rate, which is obtained by summing the age-specific fertility rates that actually applied to each cohort as they aged through time. In particular, the TFR does not necessarily predict how many children young women now will eventually have, as their fertility rates in years to come may change from those of older women now. However, the TFR is a reasonable summary of current fertility levels.

Tempo effect[link]

The TPFR (total period fertility rate) is affected by a tempo effect – if age of childbearing increases (and life cycle fertility in unchanged) then while the age of childbearing is increasing, TPFR will be lower (because the births are occurring later), and then the age of childbearing stops increasing, the TPFR will increase (due to the deferred births occurring in the later period) even though the life cycle fertility has been unchanged. In other words, the TPFR is a misleading measure of life cycle fertility when childbearing age is changing, due to this statistical artifact. This is a significant factor in some countries, such as the Czech republic and Spain in the 1990s. Some measures seek to adjust for this timing effect to gain a better measure of life cycle fertility.

[edit] Replacement rates

Graph of Total Fertility Rates vs. GDP per capita of the corresponding country, 2009. Only countries with over 5 million population were plotted to reduce outliers. Sources: CIA World Fact Book

Replacement fertility is the total fertility rate at which newborn girls would have an average of exactly one daughter over their lifetimes. That is, women have just enough female babies to replace themselves (or, equivalently, adults have just enough total babies to replace themselves).

If there were no mortality in the female population until the end of the childbearing years (generally taken as 44 or 49, though some exceptions exist) then the replacement level of TFR would be very close to 2.0 (actually slightly higher because of the excess of boy over girl births in human populations). However, the replacement level is also affected by mortality, asexuality, genetic disorders inhibiting procreation, and by women without the desire to have children. The replacement fertility rate is roughly 2.1 births per woman for most industrialized countries (2.075 in the UK for example), but ranges from 2.5 to 3.3 in developing countries because of higher mortality rates.^[4] Taken globally, the total fertility rate at replacement is 2.33 children per woman. At this rate, global population growth would trend towards zero.

Population-lag effect[link]

A population that maintained a TFR of 3.8 over an extended period of time without a correspondingly high death or emigration rate would increase rapidly, whereas a population that maintained a TFR of 2.0 over a long time would decline (unless it had a large enough immigration). However, it may take several generations for a change in the total fertility rate to be reflected in birth rate, because the age distribution must reach equilibrium. For example, a population that has recently dropped below replacement-level fertility will continue to grow, because the recent high fertility produced large numbers of young couples who would now be in their child-bearing years. This phenomenon carries forward for several generations and is called population momentum or population-lag effect. This time-lag effect is of great importance to the growth rates of human populations.

Developed or developing countries[link]

Developed countries usually have a much lower fertility rate due to greater wealth, education, and urbanization. Mortality rates are low, birth control is understood and easily accessible, and costs are often deemed very high because of education, clothing, feeding, and social amenities. With wealth, contraception becomes affordable. However, in countries like Iran where contraception was subsidised before the economy accelerated, birth rate also rapidly declined. Further, longer periods of time spent getting higher education often mean women have children later in life. The result is the demographic-economic paradox. Female labor participation rate also has substantial negative impact on fertility. However, this effect is neutralized among Nordic or liberalist countries.^[5]

In undeveloped countries on the other hand, families desire children for their labour and as caregivers for their parents in old age. Fertility rates are also higher due to the lack of access to contraceptives, generally lower levels of female education, and lower rates of female employment in industry.

United States[link]

The total fertility rate in the United States after World War II peaked at about 3.8 children per woman in the late 1950s and by 1999 was at 2 children. This means that an imaginary woman (defined in the introduction) who fast-forwarded through her life in the late 1950s would have been expected to have about four children, whereas an imaginary woman who fast-forwarded through her life in 1999 would have been expected to have only about two children in her lifetime. The fertility rate of the total U.S. population is at around the replacement level of about 2.1 children per woman. However, the fertility of the population of the United States is below replacement among those native born, and above replacement among immigrant families, most of whom come to the U.S. from countries with higher fertility than that of the U.S.^{[citation needed]} However, the fertility rates of immigrants to the U.S. have been found to decrease sharply in the second generation, correlating with improved education and income.^[7]

According to a thesis submitted in 2005 to the Office of Graduate Studies of Texas A&M University, the lowest TFR recorded anywhere in the world in recorded history is for Xiangyang district of Jiamusi city (Heilongjiang, China) which had a TFR of 0.41.^[8] Outside China, the lowest TFR ever recorded was 0.80 for Eastern Germany in 1994.

Europe[link]

The average total fertility rate in the European Union (EU-27) has been calculated at 1.59 children per woman in 2009.^[9]

In the non-EU European post-Soviet states group, Russia has a TFR of 1.61 children per woman^[10], Belarus 1.47.^[11]

Factors[link]

A systematic review of European fertility rates came to the result that European fertility rates do not seem to decrease significantly by availability of contraception.^[12] It pointed out significant factors for low fertility rates to include instability of modern partnerships and value changes.^[12] It also stated that government support of assisted reproductive technology is beneficial for families, rate is extremely small,^[12] and government policies that transfer cash to families for pregnancy and child support also only have small effects on total fertility rate.^[12]

A higher prevalence of infectious diseases in an area has been associated with a higher fertility rate.^[13]

The relationship between fertility and socio-economic development is a subject of debate in social sciences. The main issue of the debate is whether there exists a trade-off relationship between fertility and development. There is a demographic-economic paradox in the inverse correlation found between wealth and fertility within and between nations.

See also[link]

• Crude birth rate
• List of countries and territories by fertility rate
• List of people with the most children
• Demography
• Optimum population
• Fertility-development controversy

Dynamics[link]

• Fertility and intelligence
• Demographic-economic paradox
• Sub-replacement fertility
• Zero population growth

Case studies[link]

• Aging of Europe
• Aging of Japan

References[link]

• Bulatao, Rodolfo (1984). Reducing Fertility in Developing Countries. Washington: World Bank. ISBN 0-8213-0444-5. http://catalog.hathitrust.org/Record/000666403. 

External links[link]

• World Factbook table of Total Fertility Rate ordered by country rank
• Eurostat - Statistics Explained: Fertility statistics (data October 2011)
• Population Reference Bureau Glossary of Population Terms
• Java Simulation of Total Fertility.
• Java Simulation of Population Dynamics.
• How Fertility Changes Across Immigrant Generations.
• Fertility Trends, Marriage Patterns and Savant Typologies.
• Human Fertility Database: Collection of age specific fertility rates for some developed countries.

Pranab Mukherjee
Minister of Finance
Incumbent
Assumed office 24 January 2009
Prime Minister	Manmohan Singh
Preceded by	Manmohan Singh
In office 15 January 1982 – 31 December 1984
Prime Minister	Indira Gandhi Rajiv Gandhi
Preceded by	Ramaswamy Venkataraman
Succeeded by	Vishwanath Pratap Singh
Minister of External Affairs
In office 24 October 2006 – 23 May 2009
Prime Minister	Manmohan Singh
Preceded by	Manmohan Singh
Succeeded by	Somanahalli Mallaiah Krishna
In office 10 February 1995 – 16 May 1996
Prime Minister	Narasimha Rao
Preceded by	Dinesh Singh
Succeeded by	Atal Bihari Vajpayee
Minister of Defence
In office 22 May 2004 – 26 October 2006
Prime Minister	Manmohan Singh
Preceded by	George Fernandes
Succeeded by	Arackaparambil Kurien Antony
Deputy Chairperson of the Planning Commission
In office 24 June 1991 – 15 May 1996
Prime Minister	Narasimha Rao
Preceded by	Mohan Dharia
Succeeded by	Madhu Dandavate
Lok Sabha representative from Jangipur, West Bengal
In office 10 May 2004 – incumbant
Personal details
Born	(1935-12-11) 11 December 1935 (age 76) Mirati, British Raj (now India)
Political party	Indian National Congress (Before 1986; 1989–present)
Other political affiliations	Rashtriya Samajwadi Congress (1986–1989)
Spouse(s)	Suvra Mukherjee
Alma mater	University of Calcutta
Profession	Social worker Teacher Writer
Religion	Hinduism
Website	Pranab Mukherjee

Pranab Kumar Mukherjee (born 11 December 1935, Mirati; West Bengal, India) is the current Finance Minister of India^[1][2] and leader of the current 15th Lok Sabha.^[3]

Mukherjee is a senior member of the Cabinet Committees on Economic Affairs, Infrastructure, Parliamentary Affairs, Political Affairs, Prices, Security, Unique Identification Authority of India, World Trade Organization, and heads the Group of Ministers Committee on the Dabhol dispute.^[4] He is a member of the Congress Working Committee (CWC).^[5]

Early life[link]

His father Kamada Kinkar Mukherjee was a member of AICC, and West Bengal Legislative Council (1952–64), and President, District Congress Committee, Birbhum (WB).^[6] He attended the Suri Vidyasagar College, Suri (Birbhum), then affiliated with the University of Calcutta.

He holds a Master of Arts degrees in History and Political Science & has a degree in law from the University of Calcutta. He has been an advocate and a college teacher in his long public career.^{[citation needed]} In 2011 he was awarded an honorary Doctor of Letters degree by University of Wolverhampton.^[7]

Professional career[link]

Mukherjee began his career as a college-teacher and later as a journalist. He worked for noted Bengali publication Desher Dak (Call of Motherland). He also became trustee of Bangiya Sahitya Parishad and later President of Nikhil Bharat Banga Sahitya Sammelan.^[8]

Political career[link]

He has a parliamentary career of over four decades, which began as a member of Rajya Sabha (upper house) from the Congress Party in 1969; he was re-elected in 1975, 1981, 1993 and 1999. In 1973, he joined the cabinet as Union Deputy Minister, Industrial Development. He rose through a series of cabinet posts to become the Finance Minister of India from 1982 to 1984.^[9] His term was noted for India not withdrawing the last billion instalment of an IMF loan. Dr. Manmohan Singh was serving Reserve Bank of India as Governor during Pranab's term as Finance Minister. He was not included in Rajiv Gandhi's cabinet after Lok Sabha election held subsequent to Indira Gandhi's assassination. He was pushed out of the Congress party for a brief period, and during this period he formed his own political party Rashtriya Samajwadi Congress, but later merged it with Congress party in 1989 after settlement with Rajiv Gandhi.^[10] His political career revived when P.V. Narasimha Rao chose to appoint him as deputy chairman of the planning commission and subsequently as a union cabinet minister. He served as External Affairs Minister for the first time from 1995 to 1996 in Rao's cabinet. In 1997 he was voted Outstanding Parliamentarian.

He was the President of the West Bengal state unit of Congress since 1985, but resigned in July 2010 due to work-load and was succeeded by Manas Bhunia. In 2004, when the Congress formed a government at the head of a coalition the new Congress Prime Minister Manmohan Singh was only a Rajya Sabha MP. So Pranab Mukherjee was made Leader of the House in the Lok Sabha when he won the Lok Sabha elections for the first time from Jangipur (Lok Sabha constituency). He also has the distinction of being a Minister for various high profile Ministries including Defence, Finance, External Affairs, Revenue, Shipping, Transport, Communication, Economic Affairs, Commerce and Industry. He also heads the Congress Parliamentary Party and the Congress Legislative Party which consists of all the Congress MPs and MLAs in the country apart from being Leader of the House in Lok Sabha, Bengal Pradesh Congress Committee President and the Union Cabinet Minister of Finance in the Council of Ministers under Prime Minister Manmohan Singh in the Congress-led Government. Pranab played crucial role in steering the Cabinet pre Lok Sabha elections when the Prime Minister underwent by-pass surgery by taking additional charges as chairman of the Cabinet Committee Of Political Affairs and Union Minister in Finance Ministry despite already being Union Minister of External Affairs.

International role[link]

Mukherjee and US Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice signed the Section 123 Agreement on October 10, 2008. He has been a member of the Board of Governors of the International Monetary Fund, of the World Bank, of the Asian Development Bank, and of the African Development Bank.

In 1984, he chaired the Group of 24 attached to the IMF and World Bank. Between May and November 1995, he presided over the SAARC Council of Ministers Conference.^[11]

He was the first appointed by the Prime Minister, Manmohan Singh, to ease issues over the campaign initiated by Anna Hazare on day 8 of his fast, that is 23 August 2011.

Political party role[link]

Mukherjee is very well respected within the party social circles."^[12] Other media accounts describe him as having "a reputation as a number-crunching politician with a phenomenal memory and an unerring survival instinct."^[13]

After Sonia Gandhi reluctantly agreed to join politics, Mukherjee was one of her key mentors, guiding her through difficult situations with examples of how her mother-in-law, Indira Gandhi would have done things.^[14] Mukherjee's unfailing loyalty and competence have led to his closeness to Sonia Gandhi and Manmohan Singh, and helped him gain the position of Minister of Defence when the party came to power in 2004.

He has also held the position of Deputy Chairman, Planning Commission from 1991 to 1996.

His talents were on display during the negotiations for the Patent's Amendment Bill in early 2005. The Congress was committed to passing an IP bill, but their allies in the United Progressive Alliance from the Left front had a long tradition of opposing some of the monopoly aspects of intellectual property. Pranab Mukherjee, as Defence Minister, was not formally involved but was roped in for his negotiation skills. He drew on many old alliances including the CPI-M leader Jyoti Basu, and formed new intermediary positions, which included product patent and little else. Then he had to convince his own colleagues including commerce minister Kamal Nath, at one point saying: "An imperfect legislation is better than no legislation."^[15] Finally the bill was approved on March 23, 2005.

Foreign Minister: October 2006[link]

Pranab Mukherjee with US President George W. Bush in 2008.

On 24 October 2006, he was appointed as the External Affairs Minister of India. His replacement in the Defence Ministry is A. K. Antony, a senior Congress Party politician and former Chief Minister of the southern state of Kerala.

Mukherjee was briefly considered for the post of the largely ceremonial Indian presidency. But his name was subsequently dropped after his contribution in the Union Cabinet was considered practically indispensable. Among Mukherjee's current legacy was the successful signing of the U.S.-India Civil Nuclear Agreement with the US government and then with the Nuclear Suppliers Group, allowing India to participate in civilian nuclear trade in spite of not having signed the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty. He is also awarded the Padma Vibhushan, India's second highest civilian honor in 2007.

Finance Minister[link]

Pranab Mukherjee, Finance Minister of India addressing the delagates at Regional Conference of Institute of Chartered Accountants of India

Pranab Mukherjee's first stint as the Finance minister of India was during the Indira Gandhi government in 1982. He presented his first annual budget in 1982-83. In the second government of Manmohan Singh, he again became the Finance Minister of India, a job he had held earlier, in the 1980s. On July 6, 2009, he presented the government's annual budget. In it, he announced many tax reforms, such as the scrapping of the 'irritant' Fringe Benefits Tax and the Commodities Transaction Tax. He announced, that the Finance Ministry, was well on track, to implement the Goods and Services Tax, a tax, that has been praised by major corporate executives, and economists. He also expanded funding for social sector schemes, like the National Rural Employment Guarantee Act, girl's literacy, and health care. Also, he expanded infrastructure programmes, like the National Highway Development Programme, expansion of electricity coverage, and the Jawaharlal Nehru National Urban Renewal Mission. However, many people, expressed concern, about the rising fiscal deficit, the highest since 1991. Mukherjee said, that the expansion in government spending was only temporary, and he said that the government, was committed to the principle of fiscal prudence. He presented the 2009 Union budget of India as well as 2010 Union budget of India and the 2011 budget.

The 2010-11 budget includes the country's first explicit target to cut public debt as a proportion of GDP and he is targeting a budget deficit reduction to 4.1% of GDP in fiscal year 2012-13, from 6.5% in 2008-09.^[16]

Contender for President[link]

After his unsatisfied wish to become the Prime Minister of India,^[17] Pranab Mukherjee is considered as an eligible candidate for the President of India.^[18] The elections are happening in July 2012 after the five-states scheduled elections. The current Vice-President of India Hamid Ansari along with Pranab Mukherjee are the top 2 contenders of Presidential candidate.^[19]

Views and opinions[link]

On corruption[link]

In an interview to rediff.com in 1998, he was asked about the sleaze in the Congress government, in which he was the Minister for External Affairs. He replied:

Corruption is an issue. We have dealt with it in the manifesto. But I am sorry to say that these scams are not confined to the Congress or the Congress government alone. There are so many scams. So many leaders of various political parties are involved in them. So it would be too simplistic to say that the Congress government was involved in scams.^[20]

Controversies, allegations and accusations[link]

Mukherjee was a Minister in Indira Gandhi's Cabinet during the infamous Emergency and was held by many to be personally responsible for some of the excesses.^[21] He was summoned before the Shah Commission but followed Mrs. Gandhi's lead in refusing to resign before it. A police case was registered against him which was withdrawn when Mrs. Gandhi returned to power.

S. Gurumurthy and Arun Shourie exposed how Pranab Mukerjee, the then Finance Minister of India helped Reliance Industries against Bombay Dyeing through differential taxation by influencing the Income Tax Department in textile industry.^[22] As a result Bombay Dyeing was almost decimated.^[22]

Mukherjee was involved in handling Taslima Nasreen's house arrest in Delhi, as the Foreign Minister. Dealing with a situation involving her expulsion for Kolkata, anger from Islamic radicals, and her protection in a safehouse, Mukherjee received criticism for actions leading to Nasreen's eventual departure from India in March 2008.^[23]

He has also been accused of threatening banks if they invest in Gujarat by sending the Income Tax Department sleuths after them, a state governed by the Bharatiya Janata Party^[24]

Personal life[link]

Pranab Mukherjee married Suvra Mukherjee on July 13, 1957 and has two sons, Abhijit and Indrajit and a daughter. He is inspired by Deng Xiaoping & has quoted him quite frequently.^[25] His hobbies are reading, gardening and music.^[26]

Honours, awards and international recognition[link]

In 1984, he was rated as the best Finance Minister of the World according to a survey of Euromoney magazine.^[27][28] In 2010 he was awarded "Finance Minister of the Year for Asia" by Emerging Markets, the daily newspaper of record for the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund (IMF).^[29] In December 2010 The Banker recognised him as "Finance Minister of the Year" after making significant inroads into budget deficit reduction, throughout a turbulent year.^[16]

References[link]

External links[link]

Wikimedia Commons has media related to: Pranab Mukherjee

Wikinews has related news: Mukherjee injured in accident

• Pranab Mukherjee – Official website
• Parliamentary profile at India.gov.in
• Pranab Mukherjee collected news and commentary at The Times of India
• Pranab denies UPA penalising non-Congress Governments