Hype cycle

A hype cycle is a graphic representation of the maturity, adoption and social application of specific technologies. The term was coined by Gartner, Inc.^[1]

Rationale[link]

Since 1995, Gartner has used hype cycles to characterize the over-enthusiasm or "hype" and subsequent disappointment that typically happens with the introduction of new technologies.^[2] Hype cycles also show how and when technologies move beyond the hype, offer practical benefits and become widely accepted. According to Gartner, hype cycles aim to separate the hype from the reality, and enable CIOs and CEOs to decide whether or not a particular technology is ready for adoption. A longer-term historical perspective on such cycles can be found in the research of the economist Carlota Perez.

Five phases[link]

Hype cycle for emerging technologies as of July, 2009

A hype cycle in Gartner's interpretation comprises five phases:

1. "Technology Trigger" — The first phase of a hype cycle is the "technology trigger" or breakthrough, product launch or other event that generates significant press and interest.
2. "Peak of Inflated Expectations" — In the next phase, a frenzy of publicity typically generates over-enthusiasm and unrealistic expectations. There may be some successful applications of a technology, but there are typically more failures.
3. "Trough of Disillusionment" — Technologies enter the "trough of disillusionment" because they fail to meet expectations and quickly become unfashionable. Consequently, the press usually abandons the topic and the technology.
4. "Slope of Enlightenment" — Although the press may have stopped covering the technology, some businesses continue through the "slope of enlightenment" and experiment to understand the benefits and practical application of the technology.
5. "Plateau of Productivity" — A technology reaches the "plateau of productivity" as the benefits of it become widely demonstrated and accepted. The technology becomes increasingly stable and evolves in second and third generations. The final height of the plateau varies according to whether the technology is broadly applicable or benefits only a niche market.

The term is now used more broadly in the marketing of new technologies.

[edit] Mastering the Hype Cycle

In September 2008, Harvard Business Press published Mastering the Hype Cycle: How to Adopt the Right Innovation at the Right Time by Gartner analysts Jackie Fenn and Mark Raskino.^[3] The book explains the hype cycle research methodology in detail and it lays out a clear approach to innovation adoption to replace the typical hype-driven approach.

Hype in new media[link]

Hype in new media (in the more general media sense of the term "hype"^[4]) plays a large part in the adoption of new media forms by society. Applying the idea of the hype cycle to new media technologies such as the iPod, which was found to have failure rates of 13.7% in a 2005 MacInTouch study^[5] in the middle of the iPod boom, we can see the same trends may apply for forms of new media as they apply to technology in general.

Terry Flew states that hype (generally the enthusiastic and strong feeling around new forms of media and technology in which we expect they will modify everything for the better^{[citation needed]}) surrounding new media technologies and their popularisation, along with the development of the Internet, is a common characteristic. But following shortly after the period of 'inflated expectations', as per the diagram above, the new media technologies quickly fall into a period of disenchantment, which is the end of the primary, and strongest, phase of hype.

Many analyses of the Internet in the 1990s featured large amounts of hype,^[6][7][8] which as a result created "debunking" responses toward the Internet.^[4] However, such hype and the negative and positive responses toward it have now given way to research that looks empirically at new media and its impact.

Criticisms[link]

There have been numerous criticisms^[9][10][11] of the hype cycle, prominent among which are that it is not a cycle, that the outcome does not depend on the nature of the technology itself, that it is not scientific in nature, and that it does not reflect changes over time in the speed at which technology develops. Another is that the "cycle" has no real benefits to the development or marketing of new technologies and merely comments on pre-existing trends. Specific disadvantages when compared to, for example, technology readiness level are:

• With the (subjective) terms disillusionment, enlightenment and expectations it can not be described objectively or clear where technology now really is.
• The terms are misleading in the sense that you get the wrong idea what you can use a technology for: I do not want to be disappointed, so should I stay away from technology in the Trough of Disillusionment?
• No action perspective is offered to move technology to a next phase.

References[link]

External links[link]

• Hype Cycle Research Methodologies at Gartner
• Hype cycles at Gartner
• Mastering the Hype Cycle book promotion
• Gartner's hype cycle at Floor