-
No Room to Pivot
June 14, 2013 | 13 comments
-
The Old Days
June 7, 2013 | 8 comments
-
Terrorists by Any Other Name
May 31, 2013 | 148 comments
-
The Chinese Waltz
May 24, 2013 | 2 comments
-
The View From the Other Side
May 17, 2013 | 23 comments
At Large
Which Way Iraq?
Sunnis continue to take it on the chin from the now dominant Shia.
Iraq is in the middle of a civil conflict that but for the lack of international media interest would be called a war. Sunni/Shia competition has existed for generations. This blood rivalry underpinned Saddam Hussein’s dictatorial rule and dominates Iraqi political life today. Only now the domination is on the majority Shia side. There are nearly twice as many adherents of Shia Islam than Sunni in Iraq. Post-Saddam the Shia have the determinant hand and the Sunni struggle against this new reality. The Americans and British who fought to make possible this “democratic rule of the majority” have gained little in political terms from shifting the power center.
The governments of Saddam Hussein relied on their local relations with tribal leadership to maintain political control in traditional Sunni areas. The Shia were treated with the “carrot and stick” method. Those local Shia leaders willing to cooperate were financially, and where appropriate, politically, rewarded. This favored treatment was backed up by harsh policing and, where necessary, military actions. Such a system no longer works the same way. The Shia are in control and the political infrastructure of the old Baath Party no longer exists. Perhaps more importantly, Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki does not have the charisma nor several levels of police that made Saddam’s rule possible.
Within the Sunni community there remains a continuing allegiance to the tribal structure, though it no longer has the relatively unchallenged leadership of the past. In place of this traditional authority framework is a combination of central and regional government direction made effective only when operating in concert with traditional local leaders. The latter used to be primarily tribal, but now it is undercut or strengthened, depending how it’s politically aligned, by well-organized groups coordinated under an al Qaeda-in-Iraq banner. The degree that this system has grown since U.S. troops left Iraq is less important than the fact Prime Minister al-Maliki since his second term began in 2010 has been unable to resist Shia demands for increased control over all the principal levers of government.
Shia political leaders, with Maliki either leading or acquiescing, have kept Sunnis from top army positions and restricted national policing posts to loyalists, usually Shia. In fact, the political division within the country has become so sectarian that Sunni politicians are said to have been “hounded from power.” With this lack of any semblance of an effort to integrate Sunnis into the majority leadership has come a clear withdrawal of Sunnis from all aspects of ordinary political life.
The internal political issue in Iraq is far more complicated than is being reported. To begin with, the Shia are divided by family, character of their particular interpretation of their own sect, political competition within Iraqi Shia-ism and all the other things that divide people when many of them have radically different lifestyles. In somewhat the same fashion of a “normal” division of a populace, the Shia are unified in their belief that Sunnis are innately untrustworthy. That attitude mirrors the basic Sunni belief about Shia.
If the Shia are divided among themselves, the Sunnis are also divided. The al Qaeda-in-Iraq movement has several major factions and competition for leadership thereof. This contest for ascendancy within the al Qaeda grouping has been carried into the Iraqi Sunni participation on the side of the rebels in Syria. In fact, at the end of May this year there was a severe schism between the principal Iraqi and Syrian factions of al Qaeda operating against Bashar al-Assad’s government forces. Not only have Western intelligence agency operatives been thwarted in dealing with the various rebel fighting groups because of the weakness (to the point of non-existence) of any semblance of unified command, but there have been reports of al Qaeda units in near combat with each other over authority in a given sector.
The Iranians are viewed by the West as having a special kinship with the Iraqi Shia, and to an extent that is true. It is also true, however, that there is now and has been in the past outright antagonism between Iraqi and Iranian religio-political wings. It is clear that just because Iraqi Shia and Iranian Shia follow the same broad religious confession, they are expected to be automatically truly fraternal. The best proof that this was not true came during the Iran-Iraq war of the 1980s, during which Saddam Hussein was able to win over the support of a substantial number of Iraqi Shia by allowing them the coveted membership in the Iraqi Baath Party. Privilege trumped ancient religious schism in this instance, but today pragmatism rules; Iraq and Iran cooperate in every area mutually beneficial.
Iraq is currently faced with a reoccurrence of bloody confessional conflict. Each week scores of Sunni and Shia die in roadside attacks, car and truck bombings, murder and mayhem directed at group gatherings of both sides. Sunni police who have cooperated with the Shia political authority are blown up by fellow Sunni. Totally innocent women and children die in market place attacks by whichever group seeks that neighborhood’s destruction in this sectarian violence. The body count of both Sunni and Shia dead and wounded is in the hundreds monthly.
A new political bargain must be struck in Iraq. But with the rebellion in Syria complicated by its own sectarian divisions, there seems little chance for peace to break out between the Sunni and Shia in Iraq in the near future. The real question is whether the United States can and will be able to avoid being involved in Syria beyond the already announced supply of military equipment and weapons to select rebels. Of course, then there is the contagion that threatens to follow in Iraq.
About the Author
George H. Wittman writes a weekly column on international affairs for The American Spectator online. He was the founding chairman of the National Institute for Public Policy.
Letter to the Editor View all comments (28) | Leave a comment
More Articles by George H. Wittman
More Articles From At Large
http://spectator.org/archives/2013/06/21/which-way-iraq
Follow us:
ADVERTISEMENT
Current Issue
- No Internet Taxation Without Representation
- Penn and Joe
- Mama Grizzly 2016?
SPONSORED LINKS
FLASHBACK TO: 1995
-
Pope Culture
A man of faith in a godless age is hitting Americans where it hurts.
-
Why the GOP Does Not, Like, Totally Suck
Mr. and Mrs. American Spectator Reader, let P.J. O’Rourke talk sense to your kids.
-
Dames at Sea
-
In the Absence of Guns
In Britain, defending your property can get you life.
-
The Metaphysical Martini
-
Counting the Costs of Clintonism
The debacle of this president’s administration is both a cause and a symptom of the decline of American values. Unless Congress impeaches him, that decline will go on unchecked. An eminent jurist surveys the damage and assesses the chances for the recovery of our culture.
-
Chuck McHagel
It won’t take long for conservatives to scratch this presidential wannabe off their 2008 scorecard.
-
The Legacy of Old John and Mother Fresh-Roasted
-
It’s the Best Time of the Year
The American Christmas, like the songs that celebrate it, makes room for everybody under the rainbow. Is that why so many people seem to be hostile to it?
-
The Bush Crack-Up
Was the President done in by the economy, or by the politics of the economy?
Clip of the Day
ADVERTISEMENT
Jack in Wi| 6.21.13 @ 6:27AM
Iraq has been a disaster for both the USA and the Iraqi people. We have wasted 5 000 American lives and 40,000 wounded and many more mentally damaged just so the Shia friends of Iran could take power in Iraq. Of course that does not include the millions of Iraqi's killed, wounded, and displaced. The ancient Christian community of Iraq going back to the time of the Apostles has also been decimated.
Pecos Pete| 6.21.13 @ 8:59AM
Iraq? 50 million on food stamps in the USA. Real unemployment is 15%+. Electricity costs to the populace about to skyrocket due to EPA interference in the free market. The government of the USA continues to involve itself in picking winners/losers in tribal warfare in the Middle East. The president and his family spend $100 million of our dollars on a family vacation to Africa. The citizens of the USA are Stuck on Stupid.
Alan| 6.21.13 @ 10:14AM
The citizens of the USA are Stuck on Stupid.
Terminally so!
John II| 6.21.13 @ 10:40AM
You left out the part about 55,000,000 unborn children legally murdered since 1973.
Actually, a slight majority of the voters of the USA are Stuck on Stupid. I'm afraid a larger majority are Stuck on Evil.
Ranging from Jack-the-Smug in Wisconsin to Jack-the-London from Leftland.
Jack in Wi| 6.21.13 @ 10:48AM
Seeing how I voted for the Republican candidate for President since 1964, I guess I must be stupid. It is 2 parties who have destroyed this country. The Republicans put Roe v. Wade on the books. The Democrats have kept it there. Both parties have fought senseless wars for the last 100 years. Both parties are run by elites who could care less about the average people of this country. Both parties have bankrupted the country. It is a one party government with 2 wings. Another dumb comment from John II.
John II| 6.21.13 @ 10:58AM
"Another dumb comment from John II."
But . . . I didn't say what you just said. Why are you ascribing your comment to me?
You need to take more responsibility for your remarks, Jack.
And you can start by cleaning up the grammar and mechanics.
Jack in Wi| 6.21.13 @ 11:38AM
The schoolmarm strikes again. Has nothing worth saying, but likes correcting papers. For a PHD you sure haven't shown much brilliance.
John II| 6.21.13 @ 12:25PM
The correct abbreviation is "Ph.D."
C. Vernon Crisler | 6.21.13 @ 3:59PM
John II, it's because he's just cutting and pasting the same comments he made yesterday and the day before and the day before that and the day before the day before that -- you get the picture.
Jack in Wi| 6.22.13 @ 1:34PM
Chisler: You and John II haven't had an original thought in years. I have been right on most everything and you are mostly wrong. You can't rationally defend either the domestic of foreign policy of the Republican party. That is because for the last 50 years it ad mostly been bad.
vtwin| 6.21.13 @ 12:19PM
“Both parties are run by elites who could care less about the average people of this country.”
Jack, I’m once again impressed with your intellectual honesty.
John II| 6.21.13 @ 12:26PM
Whoa. That's hitting below the belt, Twit. You owe all of us an ap0logy.
Dr. Emilio Lizardo| 6.21.13 @ 9:56AM
For the handful of people in the USA who could give a rats ass, the internescine savagery in Iraq will soon be eclipsed by that which will most assuredly take place in Afghanistan when we pull out, and shift our energies to enmeshing ourselves in the emerging quagmire in Syria. Which way in Iraq? Ho hum.
John II| 6.21.13 @ 10:51AM
You misspelled "internecine," and you mixed a metaphor with the clashing "enmesh" and "quagmire." And yet, somewhere beneath all that illiterate cynicism, you may have a point.
Dr. Emilio Lizardo| 6.21.13 @ 11:54AM
vary descent of you to aknollidge
John II| 6.21.13 @ 12:30PM
You misspelled "agnahlidge."
vtwin| 6.21.13 @ 10:27AM
Bush’s, born of a biblical jackal, war against the Iraq people has thus far claimed the lives of over 113,000 (documented violent deaths) civilians in Iraq alone...and the violence is spreading across the Middle-East...the world...as planned.
http://www.iraqbodycount.org/
John II| 6.21.13 @ 10:46AM
Oh well, there's always a silver lining, Twit. When the Islamists finally settle their disputes and turn all that centuries-old murderous energy on a decadent West, you'll be among the first to go.
get off my lawn| 6.21.13 @ 11:20AM
See, that's the thing. One group of murderous followers of the camel thieving pedophile will eventually win out. Why do we care which ones we eventually have to bomb back to the stone age? Kill 'em all, let Allah sort 'em out.
vtwin| 6.21.13 @ 11:33AM
American Revolutionary War
Wars on Native Americans
War of 1812
More Wars on Native Americans
Mexican–American War
More Wars on Native Americans
Civil War
More Wars on Native Americans
Spanish-American War
World War I
World War II
Korean War
Vietnam War
Bush-Iraq War I
War in Afghanistan
Bush-Iraq War II
"Centuries-old murderous energy, indeed"
John II| 6.21.13 @ 12:21PM
You seem to be Stuck on your own Stupid, Twit.
Considering how much fun war is, that's a pretty lame list for an evil superpower.
Alan| 6.21.13 @ 9:42PM
And like most leftist drolls, they are stuck on historically retarded.
C. Vernon Crisler | 6.21.13 @ 4:02PM
vtwit thinks all wars are America's fault, that we fought with those who were just minding their own business. Laugh.
C. Vernon Crisler | 6.21.13 @ 4:05PM
vtwit, 113,000 documented? So what happened to Jackboot's "millions of Iraqi's killed, wounded, and displaced."
Jack in Wi| 6.22.13 @ 1:42PM
Chisler: With all due respect. The Lancet, using the same kind of methodology, that was used to count Holocaust victims, says over a million Iraqi's were killed. But as usual you misstate my opinion. I wrote millions of Iraqi's killed, wounded, and displaced. I don't see how you can deny that.
RCV| 6.21.13 @ 1:51PM
Two developments seem increasingly evident in the Middle East:
First, a full-scale Shia-Sunni War is in the offing. It is already happening in Syria and Iraq, and spilling over into Lebanon. It will engulf the Gulf States in short order.
Second, the "Two State solution" to the Palestinian-Israeli conflict is dead. Israel will continue to expand its West Bank construction program, and at an increasingly rapid pace. It will settle and annex key areas of the West Bank. The only prospect for the Arab residents of the rest of the territory is federation with Jordan, or an autonymous state controlled by Israel. Gaza will simply fester as a walled-off Ghetto, which nobody in the area wants anything to do with.
PolishKnight| 6.21.13 @ 2:27PM
As Bismark put it, war is God's way of teaching Americans geography. I thought of this when all these details about the inner conflict of Iraq was laid out. Ordinarily, this would be a far and away place that I'd have little concern about. It's tragic, but this kind of conflict goes on daily in the rest of the third world and none of us are the wiser (or blissfully ignorant.)
The hyper-chivalry of the west that has caused so many problems is revealed by this remark: "Totally innocent women and children die in market place attacks"
Apparently, the moment a boy turns 18 (or perhaps 15 or so), they are automatically no longer innocent. This is the attitude that has slowly changed what was once reliable, hard working beta men working 60 hours week to support their families into slackers and baby daddies. In a society that assumes that "manhood" is a bunch of knuckle dragging dogs who are either cannon fodder or to be saddled with support obligations there's little motivation to become reliable when production is a liability. It reminds me of the way that the left has a contemptuous attitude towards taxpayers and industry: Both highly needed and disposable.
And what does this say about the "innocent women" who are assumed to have no input whatsoever in their culture? That don't sometimes become suicidal bombers themselves? Or refuse to turn in their relatives engaging in destructive behavior?
obadiah| 6.22.13 @ 8:26PM
Some ways to organize human society:
1. Clans and groups of clans fight and kill each continually with shifting allegiances that combine to undermine and overthrow any central power.
2. An authoritarian strong man kills and threatens anyone who challenges him.
3. Is there a third way? There's go to be a third way. But I don't think they've thought of it in Iraq, Iran and Syria.