Eritrea: Scenarios for Future Transition
Africa Report N°200 | 28 March 2013
....Events in the last twelve months indicate growing discontent
inside Eritrea’s tightly
controlled regime, as well as deepening political and social divisions. While
the
mounting number of incidents suggests that President Isaias Afwerki’s regime is
vulnerable, with increasing concerns over its ability to stay in power, the
country
would face numerous institutional, socio-economic and geopolitical obstacles
during
and after any transition. A careful assessment of these, as well as the role
neighbours and the wider international community could play, is urgently needed
to help avoid a violent power struggle that could prove dangerous for the Horn
of Africa and potentially – as Eritrea is a littoral state – for the Red Sea
region......
Conclusion....
Even though some degree of
turbulence appears inevitable whenever and howeverIsaias departs the scene, a wider coalition of regional and international
actors shouldwork toward a controlled
transition, as much preferable to unmanaged change. Ifanother authoritarian – but inevitably weaker – regime takes power in
Asmara, orindeed if an externally
dominated government is imposed, further instability is likely, with profound
consequences for the entire Horn of Africa. If a power-sharing agreement is negotiated, it should be kept in mind
that Isaias is not Eritrea’s sole problem. Dissident factions within the regime
will want to keepreal power, and
diaspora-based opposition figures and groups do not really know –or represent – the population inside the country or most refugees. While
politicalmediation should start as soon
as possible, a concomitant assessment of Eritrea’s various and interconnected
problems should be part of a structured and proactiveengagement by the regional stakeholders and wider international
stakeholders. Specific attention should be
paid to new, younger leaders emerging in the diaspora,including refugee camps,
since demand for real change is more likely to come from thesequarters. Attention should also be paid to the socio-economic and
psychological sideeffects of the crisis.
Plans for specific DDR programs should be put in place for thosewho have been serving in the army; the security sector will need to be
reformed; andprojects will have to be
created simultaneously that focus on reintegrating those whofled their country, so as to avoid fissures developing both in the
immediate aftermathof transition and
during the subsequent attempts at state-rebuilding. In a historic moment for the Horn of Africa – with a leadership
transition inEthiopia; a decaying and
embattled ruling National Congress Party in Sudan; recentelectoral unrest in Djibouti; a new state in South Sudan displaying
worrying ethnicdivisions; a new
government that still relies on foreign troops for survival in a Somaliavast swathes of which remain in the hands of armed groups; and physical
proximityto a Yemen undergoing an
unstable transition156 – there is an urgent need to pursuestability in Eritrea. That would benefit the entire region. But the
contrary couldquickly spark instability
well beyond Eritrea’s borders, entangling not just the Hornof Africa, but even the Red Sea littoral, due to its strategic location. Nairobi/Brussels, 28 March 2013
Aljazeera English program opts not to report about the below demonstration....
AL JAZEERA Report
.. thousands Ethiopians Demonstrating in Addis Ababa
Published onMar
5, 2013
Thousands of Ethiopians came out to street of the
capital city Addis Ababa for demonstration and other cities of Ethiopia to
demand their religious rights.
When or will the Eritrea
opposition, human rights activists, websites and civic organizations express
outrage at arson perpetrated against the three Eritrean community centers in
Sweden and show solidarity with the Eritreans centers, at least to the extent of
the arson committed against the centers? Shouldn't supporters of the government
stop pointing fingers at fellow Eritreans and allow the Swedish enforcement and
judicial agencies complete their investigation and bring the perpetrators to
justice?
The damage caused by the Arson to the Eritrean
Community Centers in Sweden on Feb 25, 2013
Video: ERi-TV Eritrea News 'Zena' (February 28,
2013): Nationals traveling to and from the country express satisfaction with
implementation of Proclamation No. 173/2013
Asmara, 28 February 2013 – A number of nationals traveling
to and fro the country have expressed satisfaction with the implementation of
Proclamation No. 173/2013, the impact of which has become significant in
creating the groundwork for prompt services related to business....