An Insider’s Insider Returns to Politics, This Time as an Outsider

In recent weeks, Mr. Berlusconi, a center-right candidate, has blitzed the airwaves with a theatrical blend of anti-establishment populism, this from someone who governed Italy for the better part of the last decade. His prime targets are Prime Minister Mario Monti, a well-behaved technocrat now vying to retain his post, and Ms. Merkel, cast as the taskmaster of the austerity that is suffocating southern Europe.

With every hour that he appears on television, the medium he knows best and that made him rich, Mr. Berlusconi rises in opinion polls. His People of Liberty party is now in second place, after the center-left Democratic Party and before Mr. Monti’s nascent and still incoherent centrist bloc. They are trailed by the grass-roots Five Star Movement of Beppe Grillo, a comedian, which has tapped into a groundswell of antipolitical sentiment.

Analysts widely agree that there is little chance Mr. Berlusconi will govern Italy again after elections scheduled for February. But they say he is likely to win enough seats in Parliament to achieve his goals: protecting his interests on issues like justice reform, digital television rights and wiretap laws — and weakening the center-left Democratic Party and Mr. Monti.

“It’s a very confusing time,” said Giuliano Ferrara, the editor of the conservative daily newspaper Il Foglio and a sometime Berlusconi adviser. “People don’t want the insider,” he said of Mr. Berlusconi, “and they don’t want the outsider,” he added of Mr. Monti.

Mr. Berlusconi, a skilled campaigner, has cast himself as an outsider while making an “insider” of Mr. Monti, who was lionized when he first took office in November 2011 precisely because he was seen as apolitical.

Despite his many legal tangles and the dire performance of Italy’s economy under his leadership, Mr. Berlusconi maintains a residual popularity through charm, mastery of the media and a lack of strong competing parties.

Last week, Mr. Berlusconi appeared for two hours on a television program hosted by one of his old enemies. Questioned about the number of politicians with criminal records elected on his party’s slate over the years, Mr. Berlusconi said he had not sought them out. “You take 100 priests and you don’t find 100 saints,” he said.

“This country is ungovernable!” he said with glee at one point, only to be reminded that his governments had the largest majority in postwar Italian history. At another moment, Mr. Berlusconi stood up in outrage and threatened to leave but eventually calmed down, deftly taking out a white handkerchief to brush off his chair before sitting back down.

The show drew nine million viewers, a quarter of the Italian audience share.

“He’s an ex-prime minister who is doing showman’s gags on television,” said Marco Damilano, a political correspondent for L’Espresso, a left-wing weekly magazine, whom Mr. Berlusconi cheerfully pretended to hit on the head with a poster on a television program on Tuesday.

Always a savvy populist, Mr. Berlusconi now rails against the fiscal consolidation policies advocated by Germany, sounding not unlike the leftist Syriza party in Greece, which leads in opinion polls there. He has also taken to quoting the New York Times columnist Paul Krugman, a critic of austerity.

His message has struck a nerve in Italy and has helped put Mr. Monti, the darling of Europe and the United States, who calmed financial speculation and put Italy back on the world stage, on the defensive on television, a medium that Mr. Berlusconi dominates the way Fred Astaire did the dance floor.

Appearing on Italy’s most widely watched interview program on Monday evening, Mr. Monti, who routinely treats his predecessor with understated irony, said that Mr. Berlusconi, like a pied piper,  is entrancing  Italy but would  lead it to its death.

Many analysts say that while Mr. Monti helped bring Italy back from the brink, he overestimated his popularity as a politician. Many Italians are angry that he raised the retirement age and an unpopular property tax that many say they cannot afford. (Mr. Berlusconi said he would eliminate some property taxes as a campaign promise ahead of winning the election in 2008.)