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A budget crisis is an informal name for a situation in which the legislative and the executive in a presidential system deadlock and are unable to pass a budget. In presidential systems, the legislature has the power to pass a budget, but the executive often has a veto in which there are insufficient votes in the legislature to override. If no emergency provisions are made for the government's budget, a budget crisis may develop into a government shutdown in which the government temporarily suspends non-essential services until a budget is passed.

Unlike parliamentary systems, where a Loss of Supply would trigger resignations and new elections, a budget crisis can often lead to an extended stand-off. At the federal level in the United States, a crisis can often be averted by a continuing resolution which appropriates funding at the same level as the previous budget.

A budget crisis can also occur if the legislative branch has a constitutionally mandated dissolution or suspension date and the budget hasn't been passed up to that point. The term "budget crisis" could be used for situation then executive branch is freezing certain funds (impoundment) despite directions of the law on annual budget already passed by parliament.

Politically a budget crisis may developed in a situation of disagreement between state and civil society. Constitutional economics is a field of economics and constitutionalism which describes and analyzes the specific interrelationships between constitutional issues and functioning of the economy including budget process. The standards of constitutional economics when used during annual budget planning, as well as the latter's transparency to the society, are of the primary guiding importance to the implementation of the rule of law. Also, the availability of an effective court system, to be used by the civil society in situations of unfair government spending and executive impoundment of any previously authorized appropriations, becomes a key element for the success of any influential civil society.

Examples[link]

United States federal government shutdown of 1995 and 1996[link]

A particularly severe budget crisis occurred in the United States in November 1995, when the House of Representatives under Speaker Newt Gingrich and the administration of President Bill Clinton quarrelled over apportionments. The failure of the House and Clinton to pass a continuing budget resolution to apportion temporary funds forced a closure of most non-essential United States government offices for several weeks.

Uses in popular culture[link]

In the episode "Shutdown" of The West Wing, a budget crisis situation like the 1995-1996 federal government shutdown was depicted when Josiah Bartlet and Republican Speaker of the House Haffley disagree over budget cuts and shuts down the government for a number of days.

See also[link]

• Budget
• Political economy
• Constitutional economics

Syrian uprising
Part of The Arab Spring
Date 15 March 2011 (2011-03-15) – ongoing (1 year, 3 months, 1 week and 4 days) Location Syria Causes Authoritarian government Government corruption[1] High unemployment Inspiration from concurrent regional protests Goals Resignation of Bashar al-Assad[2] Democratic reforms[3] Regime change[4] Expanded civil rights[5] Recognition of Kurdish rights Abolition of the Supreme State Security Court Lifting of emergency law[6] Characteristics Civil resistance Calls for sanctions Demonstrations General strikes Hacktivism[7] Hunger strikes Insurgency[8] Mutiny Sectarian violence[9][10] Bombings[11] Self-immolations Sit-ins[12][13] Abductions[14][15] Status Nominal truce under UN peace plan; daily violence and deaths still reported by both sides
Parties to the civil conflict
Syrian opposition: Syrian National Council Syrian Revolution General Commission Local Coordination Committees Syrian Patriotic Group National Bloc for Change National Coordination Committee for Democratic Change Other opposition groups Armed forces: Free Syrian Army[16] Syrian Liberation Army[17] Al-Nusra Front to Protect the Levant Fatah al-Islam[18]	Syrian government: Syrian Ba'ath Party loyalists Armed forces/security       forces: Syrian Armed Forces Syrian Army Syrian Navy Syrian Air Force Republican Guard Syrian police forces Shabeeha Intelligence agencies: Department of Military Intelligence Air Force Intelligence Directorate General Intelligence Directorate
Lead figures
Burhan Ghalioun Syrian National Council Chairman Riad al-Asaad Free Syrian Army Commander Mustafa Ahmed al-Sheikh Higher Military Council Head Ali Sadreddine Bayanouni Muslim Brotherhood Leader Haitham al-Maleh Human Rights in Syria spokesman Samir Nashar Secretariat of the Damascus Declaration Member	Bashar al-Assad President of Syria Maher al-Assad 4th Division Commander Assef Shawkat Deputy Defense Minister and Intelligence head Adel Safar Prime Minister of Syria Fahed al-Jasem el-Freij Chief Of Staff (Syrian Army) Dawoud Rajiha Defense Minister Mohammad Ibrahim al-Shaar Interior Minister Walid Muallem Foreign Affairs and Expatriates Minister
Casualties
2,798[19]-3,130[20] fighters and 979-1,423 protesters killed,[21] 15,000 protesters and fighters wounded,[22] 25,000 protesters and fighters captured[23]	3,159[24]-3,409[25] killed, 3,592-4,149 wounded (March–June 2011 & December 2011-February 2012)[26][27][28]
9,784[29]-10,116[30] killed overall (government claim) 13,263[24]-14,346[31] killed overall (opposition claims) 35,000 wounded overall[32] (see Deaths below for other estimates on killed) 240,000 displaced (75,000[33]-150,000 refugees)

The Syrian uprising is an ongoing, violent internal conflict in Syria. It is part of the wider Arab Spring, a wave of upheaval throughout the Arab world. Public demonstrations across Syria began on 26 January 2011 and developed into a nationwide uprising. Protesters demanded the resignation of President Bashar al-Assad, the overthrow of his government, and an end to nearly five decades of Ba’ath Party rule.

Since spring 2011, the Syrian government has deployed the Syrian Army to quell the uprising. Several cities have been besieged,^[34][35] but nevertheless the unrest continues. According to witnesses, soldiers who refused to open fire on civilians were summarily executed by the Syrian Army.^[36] The Syrian government denied reports of defections, and blamed "armed gangs" for causing trouble.^[37] Since early autumn 2011, civilians and army defectors began forming fighting units, which began an insurgency campaign against the Syrian Army. The insurgents unified under the banner of the Free Syrian Army and fought in an increasingly organized fashion; however, the civilian component of the armed opposition lacks an organized leadership.

The uprising has sectarian undertones, though neither faction in the conflict has described sectarianism as playing a major role. The opposition is dominated by Sunni Muslims, whereas the leading government figures are Alawites,^[38] affiliated with Shia Islam. As a result, the opposition is winning support from the Sunni Muslim states, whereas the government is publicly supported by the Shia dominated Iran and the Lebanese Hezbollah.

According to various sources, including the United Nations, up to 13,265–18,980 people have been killed, of which about half were civilians, but also including 5,945–6,530 armed combatants from both sides^{[24][39][40][41]} and up to 1,400 opposition protesters.^[21] Many more have been injured, and tens of thousands of protesters have been imprisoned. According to the Syrian government, 9,767–10,107 people, including 3,400 members of the security forces, 2,800–3,130 insurgents and up to 3,600 civilians, have been killed in fighting with what they characterize as "armed terrorist groups."^[30] To escape the violence, tens of thousands of Syrian refugees have fled the country to neighboring Jordan and ^[42] Lebanon, as well to Turkey.^[43] The total official UN numbers of Syrian refugees reached 42,000 at the time,^[44] while unofficial number stood at as many as 130,000.

UNICEF reported that over 500 children have been killed,^[45][46] Another 400 children have been reportedly arrested and tortured in Syrian prisons.^[47][48] Both claims have been contested by the Syrian government.^[49] Additionally, over 600 detainees and political prisoners have died under torture.^[50] Human Rights Watch accused the government and Shabiha of using civilians as human shields when they advanced on opposition-held areas.^[51] The U.N accused the Syrian government of heavy shelling of residential areas and executing entire families in their homes.^[52] Anti-government rebels have been accused of human rights abuses as well, including torture, kidnapping, unlawful detention and execution of civilians, Shabiha, and soldiers. HRW also expressed concern at the kidnapping of Iranian nationals.^[14] The UN Commission of Inquiry has also documented abuses of this nature in its February 2012 report, which also includes documentation that indicates rebel forces have been responsible for displacement of civilians.^[53]

The Arab League, US, EU states, GCC states, and other countries have condemned the use of violence against the protesters. China and Russia have criticized the government^[54], but advise against sanctions, saying that such methods could escalate into foreign intervention.^[55] However, military intervention has been ruled out by most countries.^[56] The Arab League suspended Syria's membership over the government's response to the crisis,^[57] but sent an observer mission in December 2011, as part of its proposal for peaceful resolution of the crisis. The latest attempts to resolve the crisis has been made through the appointment of Kofi Annan, as a special envoy to resolve the Syrian crisis in the Middle East. U.N. Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon is troubled that the Syrian conflict could emerge into an "all-out civil war".^[58]

Background[link]

History[link]

Former President Hafez al-Assad (right), and his brother Rifaat al-Assad (left), who personally supervised the Hama massacre.

Syria became an independent republic in 1946. A few years later, democratic rule was overturned by an American supported coup in March 1949.^[59] Two more military coups took place that same year. A popular uprising against military rule in 1954 catalyzed a mutiny that saw the army transfer power to civilians. Free elections resulted in Shukri al-Quwatli, who had been the President at the time of the March 1949 coup, to be elected to that post in 1955. A brief union with Egypt in 1958 resulted in Syria's parliamentary system being replaced by a highly centralized presidential system. The union ended in 1961 with Syria's secession. A 1963 military coup d'état brought the Ba'ath Party to power, and was followed by another coup in 1966.^[60] In 1970, then Defense Minister Hafez al-Assad seized power and declared himself President, a position he would hold until his death in 2000. Since then, the Ba'ath Party has remained the sole authority in Syria, and Syrian citizens may only approve the President by referendum and do not hold multi-party elections for the legislature.^[61] In 1982, at the height of a six-year Islamist insurgency throughout the country, Assad conducted a scorched earth policy against the town of Hama to quell an uprising by the Sunni Islamist community, including the Muslim Brotherhood and others.^[62] This became known as the Hama massacre, which left tens of thousands dead.^[63]

The issue of Hafez al-Assad's succession prompted the 1999 Latakia protests,^[64] when violent protests and armed clashes erupted following 1998 People's Assembly's Elections. The violent events were an explosion of a long-running feud between Hafez al-Assad and his younger brother Rifaat.^[64] Two people were killed in fire exchanges between Syrian police and Rifaat's supporters during a police crack-down on Rifaat's port compound in Latakia. According to opposition sources, denied by the government, the protests resulted in hundreds of dead and injured.^[65] Hafez al-Assad died one year later, from pulmonary fibrosis. He was succeeded by his son Bashar al-Assad, who was appointed after a constitutional amendment lowered the age requirement for President from 40 to his age of 34.^[61]

Bashar al-Assad, who speaks fluent English and has a British-born wife, initially inspired hopes for reform; a "Damascus Spring" of intense political and social debate took place from July 2000 to August 2001.^[66] The period was characterized by the emergence of numerous political forums or salons where groups of like minded people met in private houses to debate political and social issues. Political activists such as Riad Seif, Haitham al-Maleh, Kamal al-Labwani, Riyad al-Turk and Aref Dalila were important in mobilizing the movement.^[67] The most famous of the forums were the Riad Seif Forum and the Jamal al-Atassi Forum. The Damascus Spring ended in August 2001 with the arrest and imprisonment of ten leading activists who had called for democratic elections and a campaign of civil disobedience.^[64] Renewed opposition activity occurred in October 2005 when activist Michel Kilo collaborated with other leading opposition figures to launch the Damascus Declaration, which criticized the Syrian government as "authoritarian, totalitarian and cliquish" and called for democratic reform.^[68]

Several riots prompted increased tension in Syria's Kurdish areas since 2004. That year, riots broke out against the government in the northeastern city of Qamishli. During a chaotic soccer match, some people raised Kurdish flags, and the match turned into a political conflict. In a brutal reaction by Syrian police and clashes between Kurdish and Arab groups, at least 30 people were killed,^[69] with some claims indicating a casualty count of about 100 people.^[70] Occasional clashes between Kurdish protesters and security forces have since continued.

The al-Assad family comes from the minority Alawite sect, an offshoot of Shiite Islam that comprises an estimated 12 percent of the Syrian population.^[71][72] It has maintained tight control on Syria's security services, generating resentment among some Sunni Muslims,^[73] a sect that makes up about three quarters of Syria's population.^[72] Minority Kurds have also protested and complained.^[74] Bashar al-Assad initially asserted that his state was immune from the kinds of mass protests that took place in Egypt.^[75] Bouthaina Shaaban, a presidential adviser, blamed Sunni clerics and preachers for inciting Sunnis to revolt, such as Qatar-based Yusuf al-Qaradawi in a sermon in Doha on 25 March.^[76] According to The New York Times, the Syrian government has relied "almost exclusively" on Alawite-dominated units of the security services to fight the uprising. His younger brother Maher al-Assad commands the army's Fourth Armored Division, and his brother-in-law, Assef Shawkat, is the deputy minister of defense.

Socio-economics[link]

High youth unemployment and economic disenfranchisement of young adults has been prevalent in Syria. A 2007 study by the Dubai School of Government’s Wolfensohn Center for Development, “Youth Exclusion in Syria: Social, Economic, and Institutional Dimensions," examined the aspects of high unemployment rates among young adults ages 15–24 in the country using available jobs data and survey responses. The study found that certain dynamics are particularly acute in Syria, even relative to countries in the region. Though its overall unemployment rate has traditionally been about average for the Middle East (about 25%), what distinguishes Syria is that the youth jobless rate has been more than six times higher than the rate among older adults (only 4%); that constitutes “the highest ratio [youth-adult imbalance] among the region’s countries outside the Gulf States.” The average ratio in the Middle East is 3.3, whereas the world average is 3.5. Additionally, the participation rate of Syrian youth in the labor market relative to adults is “substantially lower than the worldwide average (0.66 compared to 0.79 percent)". Demographic trends have exacerbated the problem; according to the study, "the share of youth in the Syrian population peaked at 25.4 percent in 2005, presenting challenges in terms of job creation for young people; and in 2002, unemployed youth made up 77 percent of the working-age unemployed population in Syria." This is in spite of the burgeoning youth population; the study notes that “labor supply growth rates of around 5 percent per year between 1983 and 2003." Survey responses indicated that most youth were actively seeking employment, but more than “75 percent of unemployed youth had been searching for work for over a year.”^[77]

Socio-economic complaints have been reported, such as a deterioration in the country's standard of living, a reduction of state support for the poor resulting from the gradual transition towards a free market economy, the erosion of subsidies for basic goods and agriculture, free trade without suitable support to the local industry, and high youth unemployment rates.^[78]

Human rights[link]

The state of human rights in Syria has long been the subject of harsh criticism from global organizations.^[79] The country was under emergency rule from 1963 until 2011, effectively granting security forces sweeping powers of arrest and detention.^[80][81] The Syrian government has justified this by pointing to the fact that the country has been in a continuous state of war with Israel. After taking power in 1970, Hafez al-Assad quickly purged the government of any political adversaries and asserted his control over all aspects of Syrian society. He developed an elaborate cult of personality and violently repressed any opposition, most notoriously in the 1982 Hama Massacre when thousands were killed in order to suppress an Islamic uprising. After his death in 2000 and the succession of his son Bashar al-Assad to the Presidency, it was hoped that the Syrian government would make concessions toward the development of a more liberal society; this period became known as the Damascus Spring. However, al-Assad is widely regarded to have been unsuccessful in implementing democratic change, with a 2010 report from Human Rights Watch stating that he had failed to improve the state of human rights since taking power ten years prior.^[82] All other political parties have remained banned, thereby making Syria a one-party state without free elections.^[80]

Rights of expression, association and assembly are strictly controlled in Syria.^[83] The authorities harass and imprison human rights activists and other critics of the government, who are oftentimes indefinitely detained and tortured in poor prison conditions.^[83] While al-Assad permitted radio stations to play Western pop music, websites such as Amazon, Facebook, Wikipedia and YouTube were blocked until 1 January 2011, when all citizens were permitted to sign up for high speed Internet, and those sites were allowed.^[84] However, a 2007 law requires Internet cafes to record all comments that users post on online chat forums.^[85]

In an interview published 31 January 2011, al-Assad declared it was time to reform, that the protests in Egypt, Tunisia and Yemen indicated a "new era" was coming to the Middle East, and that Arab rulers needed to do more to accommodate their peoples' rising political and economic aspirations.^[86][87]

Women and ethnic minorities have faced discrimination in the public sector.^[83] Thousands of Syrian Kurds were denied citizenship in 1962, and their descendants continued to be labeled as "foreigners" until 2011, when 120,000 out of roughly 200,000 stateless Kurds were granted citizenship on 6 April.^[88] Because the government is dominated by the Alawite sect, it has had to make some gestures toward the majority Sunni sects and other minority populations in order to retain power.

Timeline[link]

Protests[link]

The former flag of Syria has been used by many protesters as an opposition flag.^[89]

The protest movement in Syria was at first modest, and took a while to gain momentum. The events began on 26 January 2011,^[90] when Hasan Ali Akleh from Al-Hasakah poured gasoline on himself and set himself on fire, in the same way Tunisian Mohamed Bouazizi had in Tunis on 17 December 2010. According to eyewitnesses, the action was "a protest against the Syrian government".^[91][92] Two days later, on 28 January 2011, an evening demonstration was held in Ar-Raqqah to protest the killing of two soldiers of Kurdish descent.^[93]

On 3 February, a "Day of Rage" was called for in Syria from 4 to 5 February on social media websites Facebook and Twitter; however, protests failed to materialize within the country itself.^[94] Hundreds marched in Al-Hasakah, but Syrian security forces dispersed the protest and arrested dozens of demonstrators.^[95] Al Jazeera labeled Syria a "kingdom of silence", concluding that protests would not succeed due to the popularity of al-Assad and concerns over the prospects of insurgency like that seen in neighboring Iraq.^[96] A protest in late February at the Libyan Embassy in Damascus to demonstrate against the government of Muammar Gaddafi, facing his own major protests in Libya, was met with brutal beatings from Syrian police moving to disperse the demonstration against a friendly regime.^[97]

"Down with Bashar al-Assad". Government-critical graffiti was an early sign of the uprising.

On 6 March, Time magazine ran a story which analysed the state of the Syrian youth and why, despite some individuals being extremely critical of the government, it would be unlikely for this anger to develop into a full-fledged uprising.^[98] Ribal al-Assad said that it was almost time for Syria to be the next domino in the burgeoning Arab Spring.^[99] Indeed, on 15 March, the protest movement began to escalate, as simultaneous demonstrations took place in major cities across Syria.^[100] Increasingly, the city of Daraa became the focal point for the growing uprising. This city has been straining under the influx of internal refugees who were forced to leave their northeastern lands due to a drought which was exacerbated by the government's lack of provision.^[101] Over 100,000 people reportedly marched in Daraa on 25 March, but at least 20 protesters were reportedly killed.^[102] Protests also spread to other Syrian cities, including Homs, Hama, Baniyas, Jassem, Aleppo, Damascus and Latakia. Over 70 protesters in total were reported dead.^[103] Late in the month, the first signs were seen that the government was willing to make concessions to the protesters, when al-Assad announced the release of as many as 200 political prisoners.^[104] An Assad adviser said the emergency law would be lifted,^[105] and Assad accepted the official resignation of the government led by Prime Minister Muhammad Naji al-Otari.^[106] Assad denied the emergency law would be lifted at the end of March, however.^[107]

In April, the uprising became more extensive, and more violent. Protesters were shot at on 1 April, leading to at least 10 deaths.^[108] Well over 30 people were killed in a crackdown on protests on 8 April, activists and human rights groups claimed.^[109] Tens of thousands of protesters were prevented from entering Damascus from Douma on 15 April, though this restriction did not prevent widespread protests in many Syrian cities.^[110] Other cities where protesting was particularly strong were in Daraa, Baniyas, Al-Qamishli and Homs.^[111][112] There were also protests in Douma and Harasta, suburbs of Damascus. Firing throughout the country resulted 88 deaths among security forces and protesters, making it the bloodiest day so far.^[111][113] Tanks and soldiers entered Daraa and Douma and the border with Jordan was also closed.^[114] According to an activist, 18 people were killed in Daraa.^[115] Al Jazeera reported that some soldiers appeared to have been shot by their own comrades-in-arms after refusing orders to fire on protesters.^[116] On 29 April, more than 60 protesters were killed in demonstrations across Syria. The United States responded with harsh sanctions against the Syrian government.^[117]

Protests and military sieges[link]

As protests continued, the Syrian government used tanks and snipers to force people off the streets. Water and electricity were shut off in the city of Daraa, and security forces began confiscating flour and food.^[118] A similar situation was reported in Homs.^[119] In May, the Syrian army entered the cities of Baniyas, Hama, Homs, Talkalakh, Latakia, the Al-Midan and Douma districts of Damascus, and several other towns.^[120][121]

Protests and military sieges have occurred across Syria

Baniyas was besieged in early May, and divided into zones of de facto control, with protesters largely controlling the south and security forces enforcing the laws of the government in the north. Major demonstrations saw nearly 20 deaths on 6 May, and the government said 11 soldiers were shot by "armed groups" on the same day.^[122] The violent suppression of protests in Homs, Daraa, and other rebellious cities continued throughout the month.^[123][124] A 17 May report of claims by refugees coming from Telkalakh on the Lebanese border indicated that sectarian attacks may have been occurring. Sunni refugees said that uniformed Alawite Shabiha militiamen were killing Sunnis in the town of Telkalakh. The reporter also stated that according to arms dealers, "sales of black market weapons in Lebanon have skyrocketed in recent weeks driven almost entirely by demand in Syria."^[125]

Early June, the Syrian government said more than 20 Syrian demonstrators were shot dead at the Golan Heights by Israeli forces, when trying to cross the cease-fire line during Naksa Day demonstrations. This was perceived by Israelis as a way for the Syrian government to divert attention from the Syrian unrest by allowing demonstrators to reach all the way to the Golan Heights.^[126] The army also besieged the northern cities of Jisr ash-Shugur^[37] and Maarat al-Numaan near the Turkish border.^[127] The Syrian Army claimed the towns were the site of mass graves of Syrian security personnel killed during the uprising and justified the attacks as operations to rid the region of "armed gangs",^[128] though local residents claimed the dead Syrian troops and officers were executed for refusing to fire on protesters.^[129][130] The siege of Daraa continued in the meantime, with a French journalist reporting famine-like conditions in the town.^[131] On 20 June, in a speech lasting nearly an hour, in response to the demands of protesters and foreign pressure, Assad promised a "national dialogue" involving movement toward reform, new parliamentary elections, and greater freedoms. He also urged refugees to return home from Turkey, while assuring them amnesty and blaming all unrest on a small number of "saboteurs". The speech received mixed reactions domestically and abroad and was largely dismissed by protesters.^[132] On 30 June, large protests erupted against the Assad government in Aleppo (Syria's second largest city) which were labeled the "Aleppo volcano".^[133]

Pro-government demonstration in Latakia

In mid-July, pro-government protesters attacked the US and French embassies in Damascus, responding to those countries' support for the opposition.^[134] US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton condemned both the attacks and the incumbent government, stating that al-Assad had "lost legitimacy," and that "President Assad is not indispensable and we have absolutely nothing invested in him remaining in power."^[135] Attacks on protests continued throughout July, with government forces repeatedly firing at protester and employing tanks against demonstrations, as well as conducting arrests. On 31 July, a siege of Hama escalated during a so-called "Ramadan Massacre", in which at least 136 people were killed and hundreds wounded when Syrian forces attacked demonstrators across the country, employing tanks, artillery and snipers. Most of the deaths occurred in Hama.^[136]

Syrian forces continued to bombard Hama in early August, along with attacks in other cities and towns.^[137] On the first full weekend of Ramadan, the Arab League and several Gulf Cooperation Council member states led by Saudi Arabia broke their silence on the events in Syria to condemn the government's response.^[138] Throughout August, Syrian forces stormed major urban centers and outlying regions, and continued to attack protests.

On 14 August, the Syrian Navy became involved in the military crackdown. Gunboats fired heavy machine guns at waterfront districts in Latakia as ground troops and security agents backed by armor stormed several neighborhoods. Up to 28 people were killed. Eight more civilians were killed elsewhere in the country.^[139]

Throughout the next few days, the Siege of Latakia dragged on, with government forces and shabiha militia continuing to fire on civilians in the city, as well as throughout the country over the following days. On 30 August, during the first day of Eid ul-Fitr, thousands of people demonstrated in Homs, Daraa, and suburbs of Damascus. Nine people were killed when security forces fired on these demonstrations. Eid celebrations in the country were reportedly muted, with people trying to visit the graves of their loved ones being killed.^[140] Protests continued into the following months, with security forces and militia continuing to fire at demonstrators and raid towns and neighborhoods across the country.

On 7 October, prominent Kurdish rights activist Mishaal al-Tammo was assassinated when masked gunmen burst into his flat, with the Syrian government blamed for his death. At least 20 other civilians were also killed during crackdowns on demonstrations across the country. The next day, more than 50,000 mourners marched in Al-Qamishli to mark Tammo's funeral, and at least 14 were killed when security forces fired on them.^[141]

In August, The Jerusalem Post reported that protesters enraged at Hezbollah's support for Assad's government burned Hezbollah flags and images of its leader Hassan Nasrallah in several places in Syria.^[142] Pro-government protestors have carried posters of Hassan Nasrallah.^[143] Hezbollah states they support a process of reforms in Syria and that they also are against what they term US plots to destabilize and interfere in Syria.^[144]

Six months into the uprising, the inhabitants of Syria's two largest cities, Damascus and Aleppo, remain largely uninvolved in the anti-government protests.^[145] The two cities central squares have seen rallies in the tens of thousands in support of Assad and his government.^[146] Analysts and even opposition activists themselves acknowledge that without mass participation in the protest movement from these two cities, the government will survive and avoid the fate of its counterparts in Egypt and Tunisia.^[146]

Throughout August and September, Syrian forces continued to suppress protests, with hundreds of killings and arrests reportedly having taken place. The crackdown continued into the first three days of November. On 3 November, the government accepted an Arab League plan that aims to restore the peace in the country. According to members of the opposition, however, government forces continued their suppression of protests. Throughout the month, there were numerous reports of civilians taken from their homes turning up dead and mutilated, clashes between loyalist troops and defectors, and electric shocks and hot iron rods being used to torture detainees.

Protests and armed clashes[link]

Neighborhoods in Homs under siege (8 February 2012).

On 14 November, more than 70 people were killed across Syria as the army clashed with defectors and shot at civilians. Some 34 soldiers and 12 defectors were killed, along with 27 civilians.^[147]

On 9 November, UN High Commissioner for Human Rights Navi Pillay warned that the country could slip into "a Libyan-style civil war".^[148]

On 12 December, local elections under reformed electoral law were held amid the tensions.^[149]

Activists said security forces killed up to 70 army defectors on 19 December as they were deserting their military posts near the Turkish border. At least 30 other people died in other violence across the country, the activists said. If accurate, it would be one of the heaviest daily tolls of the entire revolt up until December.^[150]

On 23 December, two suicide bombs hit two security facilities in Damascus, killing 30 civilians and soldiers. The government stated the attack "carried the blue print of al-Qaeda", whereas opposition members blamed the government,^[151] and hinted that the government itself may have been behind the attacks to make its case to Arab League observers who arrived in the country only the day before. Government officials brought the advance team of Arab League observers to the scene to see the wreckage. Omar Idilbi, a member of the Syrian National Council thought the explosions "very mysterious because they happened in heavily guarded areas that are difficult to be penetrated by a car."^[152] Two days earlier, Lebanese authorities had warned that al-Qaeda members were entering Syria from North Lebanon.^[153]

On 6 January 2012, a suicide bomb attack in the central Damascus neighbourhood of al-Midan killed 26 people, most of whom were civilians.^[154] The Syrian government blamed the attack on terrorists and vowed to respond with an "iron fist" to security threats. Responsibility for the attack was later claimed by the Al-Nusra Front to Protect the Levant.^[155]

Opposition demonstration in one of Homs' districts

On 11 January, a mortar attack on a pro-government rally in Homs killed a French journalist, Gilles Jacquier of France 2, and seven others.^[156]

On 27 January, Arab League observer mission reported on attacks carried out by opposition forces.

Recently, there have been incidents that could widen the gap and increase bitterness between the parties. These incidents can have grave consequences and lead to the loss of life and property. Such incidents include the bombing of buildings, trains carrying fuel, vehicles carrying diesel oil and explosions targeting the police, members of the media and fuel pipelines. Some of those attacks have been carried out by the Free Syrian Army and some by other armed opposition groups.^[157]

On 1 February, Riad al-Asaad, commander of the Free Syrian army, claimed that “Fifty percent of Syrian territory is no longer under the control of the regime,” and that half of the country was now effectively a no-go zone for the security forces. He said the morale of government troops was extremely low. “That’s why they are bombing indiscriminately, killing men, women and children,” he said.^[158]

Protests have drifted abroad to the doorsteps of Syrian embassies. After the opposition had claimed that more than 200 people perished in the massacre in Homs on 2 February 2012, both Syrian and non-Syrian protesters in Cairo, Kuwait City, and London damaged their respective Syrian embassy.^[159]

In an attack on buildings used by Syrian military intelligence in Aleppo, at least 28 people died and 235 were injured on 10 February 2012. The Free Syrian Army, through colonel Arif Hamood, claimed responsibility for the attacks in an interview with France 24, saying mortars and RPGs had been used instead of car bombs as was initially reported.^[160] However, shortly thereafter another FSA leader, Riad al-Asaad, denied FSA involvement and asserted a false-flag conspiracy in which the Assad government is presented as the perpetrator of the attack on its own buildings.^[161] A correspondent for the Dutch public broadcaster NOS described the latter as an unlikely explanation for the attacks, pointing out that the FSA have earlier indicated that one of their targets is military intelligence, which they hold responsible for a major part of the violence against the opposition.^[162]

Ceasefire attempt[link]

Since 12 April, both sides, the Syrian Government and rebels of the FSA entered a UN mediated ceasefire period. Despite the intitial plans to begin the ceasefire on 10 April, the Syrian Army continued to pound rebel strongholds for two more days, in an attempt to gain ground, and announced full armistice on 12 April. On 15 April, there were reports of artillery fire on Homs, and several dozens of casualties accumulated across Syria due to infractions of the ceasefire by both sides, despite the promise for pause in hostilities.

On 21 April, the United Nations Security Council adopted resolution 2043 as basis for the United Nations Supervision Mission in Syria (UNSMIS) for an initial 90-day period.

On 23 April, the violence in Syria allegedly peaked again with as many as 80 people claimed to be killed nationwide.^[163]

On 1 May, Hervé Ladsous, the United Nations (UN) Under-Secretary-General for Peacekeeping Operations, said that both sides had violated the April 12 ceasefire agreement. UN chief Ban Ki-moon said it was vital that government and opposition alike cooperate fully with the UN observer force.^[164][165]

With increased fighting by the second half of May and as a consequence of the Houla massacre, the cease-fire was considered to be on the verge of collapse. On May 29, Kofi Annan headed for Syria by himself to prevent the ensuing crisis.

The Free Syrian army announced on 30 May that they were giving president Bashar al-Assad a 48-hour deadline to abide by an international peace plan to end violence. "It ends on Friday at 1200 (0900 GMT) then we are free from any commitment and we will defend and protect the civilians, their villages and their cities.", the FSA spokesperson is quoted saying.^[166]

Parties in the conflict[link]

Syrian National Council[link]

Bassma Kodmani (L), Burhan Ghalioun (C) and Haitham al-Maleh (R) at SNC's first congress in Tunis, 19 December 2011.

The Syrian opposition met several times in conferences held mostly in Turkey and formed a National Council.

The Federation of Tenseekiet Syrian Revolution helped in the formation of a Transitional National Assembly on 23 August in Istanbul "to serve as the political stage of the Revolution of the Syrian people". The creation of the Syrian National Council was celebrated by the Syrian protestors since the Friday protest following its establishment was dubbed "The Syrian National Council Represents Me".^[167][168] The Syrian National Council gained the recognition of a few countries, including "sole legitimate interlocutor" by the United States.^[169]

Local coordination committees[link]

The networks of anti-government protest organizers formed decentralized "Local Coordination Committees" which drew together the young, unorganized protesters. The Committees are used to document protests and spread anti-government messages throughout Syria. Though they have only a few hundred members, the Local Coordination Committees rose to prominence as the core of the protest movement on the ground, separate from the organized political opposition. The Committees are also noted for trying to reach out to minority groups and diversify the demonstrations.^[170]

Free Syrian Army and other armed opposition groups[link]

In late July 2011, a web video featuring a group of uniformed men claiming to be defected Syrian Army officers proclaimed the formation of a Free Syrian Army (FSA). In the video, the men called upon Syrian soldiers and officers to defect to their ranks, and said the purpose of the Free Syrian Army was to defend protesters from violence by the state.^[16] Many Syrian soldiers subsequently deserted to join the FSA.^[171] The actual number of soldiers who defected to the FSA is uncertain, with estimates ranging from 1,000 to over 25,000 as of December 2011.^[172] Nir Rosen, who spent time with the FSA in Syria, claims the majority of its members are civilians rather than defectors, who had taken up arms long before the formation of the FSA was announced. He also stated they have no central leadership.^[173]

As deserting soldiers abandoned their armored vehicles and brought only light weaponry and munitions, FSA adopted guerilla-style tactics against security forces inside cities. Its primary target has been the shabiha militias. Most FSA attacks however are directed against trucks and buses that are believed to bring security reinforcements. Sometimes the vehicle occupants are taken as hostages, in other cases the vehicles are attacked either with roadside bombs or through hit-and-run attacks. The FSA has also targeted power lines and water mains in "retaliation against Hezbollah’s provocations."^[174] To encourage defection, the FSA began attacking army patrols, shooting the commanders and trying to convince the soldiers to switch sides. FSA units have also acted as defense forces by guarding neighborhoods rife with opposition, guarding streets while protests take place, and attacking shabiha members. However, the FSA engaged in street battles with security forces in Deir ez-Zor, Al-Rastan, and Al-Bukamal. Fighting in these cities raged for days, with no clear victor. In Hama, Homs, Al-Rastan, Deir ez-Zor, and Daraa, the Syrian military used airstrikes against them, leading to calls from the FSA for the imposition of a no-fly zone.^[175] The Free Syrian Army numbers about 15,000 men according to a statement its leader Riad al-Asaad made on Al Jazeera, and he added that these were almost exclusively reserve troops that defected from the Syrian army, and thus were no match against the government's highly trained active-duty troops.

On 15 November, the FSA attacked an air force intelligence complex in the Damascus suburb of Harasta with shoulder-fired missiles and heavy machine guns. A gunfight ensued, and helicopters were deployed to the area.^[176][177]

The Syrian government claims that some elements among the armed opposition are Salafists.^[178] More than 3,000 members of the Syrian security forces have been killed, which the Syrian government states is due to "armed gangs" being among the protesters, yet the opposition blames the deaths on the government.^[179][180] Syrians have been crossing the border to Lebanon to buy weapons on the black market since the beginning of the protests.^[181] Clan leaders in Syria claim that the armed uprising is of a tribal, revenge-based nature, not Islamist.^[182] On 6 June, the government said more than 120 security personnel were killed by "armed gangs"; 20 in an ambush, and 82 in an attack on a security post.^[183] The main centers of unrest – Daraa near Jordan, where the uprising began, Talkalakh, Homs, Talbiseh, and Al-Rastan near Lebanon, and Jisr ash-Shugur near Turkey – have been described as being predominately Sunni Muslim towns and cities close to the country's borders where smuggling has been common for generations, and thus have more access to smuggled weapons.^[184]

In September 2011, the Syrian government claimed to have killed a total of 700 insurgents.^[185]

Third parties[link]

On 21 May, Hervé Ladsous stated there are "third party, terrorist groups" in Syria.^[186] One day later, a group of fighters kidnapped 13 Lebanese civilians in the northern province of Aleppo. The group claimed they were part of the FSA and demanded FSA detainees of the Syrian army be released. Saad Hariri, who heads the anti-Assad opposition in Lebanon, denounced the kidnapping and called for the men's immediate release.^[187] A FSA leader in Aleppo denied any personal knowledge of the abduction.^[188]

Kurdish stance[link]

Kurds have participated in the 2011–2012 Syrian uprising in smaller numbers than their Syrian Arab counterparts. This has been explained as being due to the Turkish endorsement of the opposition, and Kurd underrepresentation in the Syrian National Council.^[189] "The regime tried to neutralize Kurds," said Hassan Saleh, leader of the Kurdish Yekiti Party. "In the Kurdish areas, people are not being repressed like the Arab areas. But activists are being arrested."^[190] According to Ariel Zirulnick of the Christian Science Monitor, the Assad government "has successfully convinced many of Syria’s Kurds and Christians that without the iron grip of a leader sympathetic to the threats posed to minorities, they might meet the same fate" as minorities in Lebanon and Iraq.^[191]

In 2012, several cities with large Kurdish populations, such as Qamishli and Al-Hasakah, began witnessing protests of several thousand people against the Syrian government, which responded with tanks and fired upon the protesters.^[192]

Senior Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK) leader Cemil Bayik stated that if Turkey were to intervene against Assad, the PKK would fight on the Syrian side. The PKK's Syrian branch is alleged to be involved in the targeting of Kurds participating in the uprising.^[193]

In May 2012, a delegation of the Kurdish National Council of Syria (KNCS), a coalition of ten Syrian-Kurdish parties established in October 2011, was invited to Washington for talks. Amongst others the delegation met Robert Ford, the former U.S. ambassador to Syria.^[194]

Shabiha[link]

Shabiha (Arabic: الشبيحة‎; from the word شبح "ghost") have been described as "a notorious Alawite paramilitary, who are accused of acting as unofficial enforcers for Assad’s regime";^[195] "gunmen loyal to Assad";^[196] "semi-criminal gangs comprised of thugs close to the regime.”^[196] Some "shabiha" operating in Aleppo have been reported to be Sunni, however.^[197]

According to a Syrian citizen, shabiha is a term that was used to refer to gangs involved in smuggling during the Syrian occupation of Lebanon: "They used to travel in ghost cars without plates; that’s how they got the name Shabbiha. They would smuggle cars from Lebanon to Syria. The police turned a blind eye, and in return Shabbiha would act as a shadow militia in case of need".^[198] Witnesses and refugees from the northwestern region say that the shabeeha have reemerged during the uprising, and in June were being used by the Syrian government to carry out "a scorched earthed campaign [...] burning crops, ransacking houses and shooting randomly".^[198][199] In April, Wissam Tarif, director of the human rights group Insan, said the shabiha were operating in Homs, and an anonymous witness said they were to blame for some of the 21 deaths there over the course of two days.^[200]

On 11 January 2012, a pro-Assad gathering hosted by Bashar al-Assad in Damascus chanted "Shabiha forever, for the sake of your eyes, Assad".^[201]

Bassel al-Assad is reported to have created the secretive militia for the government in times of when it was in crisis.^[202]

Sectarianism[link]

At the uprising's outset, some protesters reportedly chanted "Christians to Beirut; Alawites to the coffin".^[203][204] While many in the opposition view the conflict as a sectarian one, some have accused the government of fomenting sectarianism;^[205] In a Time Magazine report, an anti-Assad activist claimed that the Syrian government had paid government workers to write anti-Alawite graffiti and chant sectarian slogans at opposition rallies.^[206] One commander from the Free Syrian Army indicated that this is a religious Islamic struggle against a secular government. He claimed that: "For the first time, we are able to proclaim the word of God throughout this land." Although he also stated that they were fighting for all of Syria's religions and sects: Christian, Muslim, Alawite, Sunni, Druze, Shia.^[207] Alawites who have taken refugee in Lebanon have told journalists that they were offered money by the Syrian government to spread sectarianism through chants and graffiti.^[206]

US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton stated that the primarily Sunni protesters "have a lot of work to do internally" in order to gain the broad public support needed to form a genuinely national movement, and "it is not yet accepted by many groups within Syria that their life will be better without Assad than with Assad. There are a lot of minority groups that are very concerned."^[208] The opposition does include some prominent Alawites and Christians.^[209] and the neoconservative US-based Stonegate Institute claimed in early 2012 that Syrian Christians have been persecuted by the government during the uprising and threatened into declaring their support for Assad.^[210]

There have been unconfirmed reports that the Christians of Homs were expelled from their houses by a brigade of the Free Syrian Army.^[211] Local sources told Agenzia Fides that Islamist opposition groups committed massacres against the Christians and Alawites of Qusayr.^[212] The Jesuit community living in Homs have denied these claims, saying that Christians left on their own accord to escape the uprising's natural violence.^[213]

Foreign involvement[link]

The Syrian conflict has been interpreted as part of a proxy war between Sunni states such as Saudi Arabia, Turkey and Qatar, who support the Sunni-led opposition, and Iran, Iraq and Hezbollah in Lebanon, who support the Alawite-led government in Syria.^[214][215] Israeli reactions have been mixed, with some believing regime change in Syria would weaken their enemy Iran,^[216] and others believing a post-Assad Syria might be more dangerous for the Jewish State.^[217] Former Mossad chief Efraim Halevy has suggested that Israel should exploit the Shia-Sunni conflict.^[218]

In February 2012 German Foreign Minister Guido Westerwelle warned that a proxy war in Syria could "cause a confrontation that drags in even Moscow and Beijing".^[219] Before his departure to the 2012 G8 Summit the Russian Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev warned, that "actions, which undermine state sovereignty" may well end in "a full-blown regional war" and even the "use of nuclear weapons".^[220]

Support for the opposition[link]

In mid-April 2011, WikiLeaks revealed that the United States had secretly funded as much as $6 million to a London-based opposition group Movement for Justice and Development since 2006 to operate the Barada TV satellite channel and finance other activities inside Syria.^[221] In May, the Syrian government stated it arrested some and killed other members of terrorist cells with foreign ties, whom it stated had killed military and police personnel.^[222] Khamenei and other Iranian leaders have accused the US and Israel of creating the uprising.^[223]

Turkey provided refuge for Syrian dissidents. Syrian opposition activists convened in Istanbul in May to discuss regime change,^[224] and Turkey hosts the head of the Free Syria Army, Colonel Riad al-Asaad.^[225][226] Turkey has become increasingly hostile to the Assad government's policies, has encouraged reconciliation among dissident factions and has become concerned about refugees on its borders with Syria. Beginning in May 2012, some Syrian opposition fighters began being armed and trained by the Turkish Intelligence.^[227]

On 1 November, NATO said it had no intention of taking military action in Syria, after it closed its seven-month campaign in Libya.^[228]

Some countries have cut ties with the Assad government including: the Gulf States, Libya, Tunisia,^[229] Britain, Spain, Turkey, the United States and Belgium.^[230] Canada has closed its visa office but maintains an embassy in Damascus.^[231]

Sunni Islamist groups such as Al-Qaeda and Hizb ut-Tahrir have voiced their support for the Syrian opposition.^[232] Hamas prime minister of Gaza, Ismail Haniya, expressed his support for "the Syrian people who seek freedom, democracy and reform",^[233] but Hamas leader Salah al-Bardaweel added that this does not mean severance of ties with the Assad government.^[234] American officials believe that Al-Qaeda in Iraq has joined the opposition and has conducted bomb attacks against government forces.^[235] Leader of Al-Qaeda Ayman al-Zawahiri stated: "Wounded Syria is still bleeding day after day, and the butcher [Bashar Assad] isn't deterred and doesn't stop," and "However, the resistance of our people in Syria is escalating and growing despite all the pains, sacrifices and blood."^[236] When asked if the United States would arm the opposition, Hillary Clinton expressed fears that such weapons could fall into the hands of Al-Qaeda or Hamas, organizations she believes now support the opposition.^[237]

On 5 March, U.S. Senator and former Republican Presidential candidate John McCain said that America should bomb the Assad government, support the Syrian opposition, and defend civilians from government attacks.^[238]

On 8 March, Abdo Hussameddin Syria's deputy oil minister announced that he was resigning from his government post to join the opposition in their revolt against the government. Hussameddin is the highest political figure to have left President Bashar al-Assad’s government since the uprising began last year.^[239]

On 23 April, one of the leaders of the Islamist group Fatah al-Islam, Abdel Ghani Jawhar, was killed during the Battle of Al-Qusayr, after he blew himself up while making a bomb. According to the group, he had traveled to Syria with a group of 30 Lebanese fighters to participate in the fighting.^[18]

Saudi Arabia and Qatar have been accused of sending armed militants to Syria to fight alongside the rebels. On 25 April, independent Syrian newspaper Al-Watan reported that Syrian border guards had repelled an attempted incursion by a unit of these mercenaries, who had been trying to enter Syria from Iraq.^[240]

On 28 April, the Lebanese navy halted a ship sailing from Libya carrying a large consignment of Libyan weapons believed to be destined for Syrian rebels.^[241]

During a 7 May visit to the Kilis refugee camp in south Turkey, the country's prime minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan told the Syrian refugees that victory for the rebels was not far off and that president Bashar al-Assad was "losing blood" by the day.^[242]

On 8 May, Syria's U.N. envoy Bashar Ja'afari displayed video of what he said were confessions of 26 Arabs caught in Syria who had come from Libya, Tunisia and elsewhere via Turkey and Lebanon "to perpetrate terrorist acts". Ja'afari stated another 15 foreign fighters had been killed and he urged Saudi Arabia, Qatar and Turkey to stop "their sponsorship of the armed rebellion".^[243] Little over a week later, Ja'afari said another 10 non-Syrians were killed fighting the Army, among them two Britons. He named one as Walid Hussein Blidi, a dual British-Algerian national, who was previously cited, by the Doha Centre for Press Freedom, in late March as an independent journalist who had been shot dead by the Syrian Army after he crossed the border from Turkey with the help of members from the Syrian opposition. The identity of the other Briton was unknown and the other eight foreigners were reported to be two French nationals of Arab origin, four Tunisians, an Egyptian and a Saudi.^[244]

On 17 May, an article appeared in the Washington Post describing how Syrian opposition fighters reportedly started to receive more, and better, weapons in an effort paid for by Gulf Arab states and co-ordinated partly by the US. The article was based on sources from within the Syrian opposition and from among U.S. and other foreign officials.^[245] The United States denied the allegation and insisted they were only providing non-lethal support to the opposition.^[246]

Support for the Syrian government[link]

In January 2012, Human Rights Watch criticised Russia for "repeating the mistakes of Western governments" in its "misguided" support of Assad.^[247] Before March 2012^[54] Russia has shown constant and vocal support for the Assad government, which is now considered to be the nation's last remaining ally in the Middle East,^[248] including vetoing a UN security council motion, in tandem with China. Jerusalem Post correspondent Oren Kessler reported that China's veto was enacted in the interests of preserving the nation's ties with Russia.^[249] Russia has shipped arms during the uprising to Assads government for use against rebels.^[250] Israel has been unconvincingly accused of support for Assad.^[251]

Iran's supreme leader, Ali Khamenei, spoke out in favor of the Syrian government in regard to the uprising – “In Syria, the hand of America and Israel is evident” and “Wherever a movement is Islamic, populist and anti-American, we support it”.^[252] The Guardian reported that the Iranian government is assisting the Syrian government with riot control equipment, intelligence monitoring techniques, oil supply, and snipers.^[253] One magazine article claimed that Iran has sent the Syrian government $9 billion to help it withstand the sanctions imposed upon it.^[254]

According to US journalist Geneive Abdo, the Iranian government provided the Syrian government with technology to monitor e-mail, cell phones and social media. Iran developed these capabilities in the wake of the 2009 protests and spent millions of dollars establishing a “cyber army” to track down dissidents online. Iran’s monitoring technology is believed to be among the most sophisticated in the world – second, perhaps, only to China.^[252]

U.S. President Barack Obama and U.S. Ambassador to the United Nations Susan Rice also accused Iran of secretly aiding Assad in his efforts to quell the protests.^[255] According to Israeli Army Radio, an Israeli Foreign Ministry official stated that local protesters claimed to have heard security forces members speaking Persian.^[256] The Syrian Muslim Brotherhood accused Hezbollah and Iran of providing equipment and training to the Assad government in order to suppress protesters. Comptroller Riad al-Shafqa stated that "Hezbollah and Iran providing the Assad regime with equipment and training to suppress the Syrian people, and we have information that confirms that in the Operation Room in Syria there are experts from the Iranian Republican Guard leading operations against the Syrian people.”^[257] Iran denied any involvement in suppressing the protests.^[258]

On 18 February, two Iranian ships were reported to pass the Suez canal aiming for Syria.^[259] The two navy ships later arrived at a Syrian port, which several sources described as a "display of power". The same month it was reported that, like Russia, Hugo Chavez' government in Venezuela had been shipping tens of millions of dollars of diesel to Syria, which can be used to fuel army tanks.^[260] The following month, as it readied a third shipment, Venezuela confirmed that it would continue sending diesel to the country.^[261] A Greece-based trading company, Naftomar, is reputedly the last firm arranging deliveries of liquefied petroleum gas (LPG), but, unlike the fuel sent from Venezuela and Russia, LPG is a peaceful material that plays a vital role in countries like Syria that have limited infrastructure for piping gas. International sanctions do not apply to LPG for humanitarian reasons.^[262] "We advise anyone that is cooperating with the regime right now to stop supporting it. Traders or otherwise, we advise them to take a firm stance against Bashar al-Assad," said Melhem Al-Droubi from the opposition Syrian National Council.^[262] A Russian shipment still went through in April, though Russian and Iranian fuel shipments are not illegal, as they are not signed up to Western sanctions.^[263]

On 19 March, a Russian military unit was reported to have landed in Syria via the port in Tartous, according to Russian news reports. This decision was a development that a United Nations Security Council source told ABC News was "a bomb" certain to have serious repercussions. The Russian embassy to the U.S. and to the U.N. had no comment, and the defense minister of Russia claimed only Russian military and technical advisors were in the country.^[264] The presence of Russian troops in Syria could be a "pretty obvious" show of support to the government, according to Russian security expert Mark Galeotti.^[265]

In March 2012, anonymous U.S. intelligence officials claimed a spike in Iran­ian-supplied arms and other aid for the Syrian government: "They've supplied equipment, weapons and technical assistance — even monitoring tools — to help suppress unrest," one official said. Iranian security officials also allegedly traveled to Damascus to help deliver this assistance. A second senior U.S. official said members of Iran's main intelligence service, the Ministry of Intelligence and Security, are assisting Syrian counterparts in charge of the crackdown.^[266] More anonymous sources were cited by the UN in May 2012, as it claimed arms were moving both ways between Lebanon and Syria, and alleged weapons brought in from Lebanon were being used to arm the opposition.^[267]

According to a top official of the Iranian revolutionary guard corps, Hezbollah operatives took part in fighting on the ground against the opposition in Damascus and in the Battle of Zabadani.^[268] Weapons shipments both ways between Lebanon and Syria were documented in a May 2012 UN report.

According to a U.N. panel in May 2012, Iran supplied the Syrian government with arms during the previous year despite a ban on the Islamic Republic on weapons exports by the Islamic Republic. Turkish authorities captured crates and a truck in February 2012, including assault rifles, machine guns, explosives, detonators, 60mm and 120mm mortal shells as well as other items on it's border. It was believed these were destined for the Syrian government. The confidential report leaked just hours after an article appeared in the Washington Post revealing how Syrian opposition fighters started to receive more, and better, weapons in an effort paid for by Gulf Arab states and co-ordinated partly by the US.^[269] The report investigated three large illegal shipments of Iranian weapons over the past year and stated "Iran has continued to defy the international community through illegal arms shipments. Two of these cases involved (Syria), as were the majority of cases inspected by the Panel during its previous mandate, underscoring that Syria continues to be the central party to illicit Iranian arms transfers."^[270] The U.N. was also investigating reports of possible weapons-related shipments by North Korea to the Syrian government and to Myanmar. China was named in the report as a transit hub for the weapons from North Korea.^[271]

Events in Lebanon[link]

In May 2012 Ban Ki-moon said he is concerned about the outbreak of related violence in Lebanon. Many of Lebanon's Sunni Muslims sympathize with the uprising in Syria against Assad.^[58]

Syrian refugees[link]

The refugee problem began unfolding across Syrian borders on April 2011, intensifying with the siege of Talkalakh and the unrest in the Syrian province of Idlib. As a result, thousands of Syrian citizens fled across the border to Lebanon and Syria by summer 2011. In early 2012, the numbers of Syrian refugees swelled to some 20,000 registered by UN in Lebanon, Turkey and Jordan.

Following the increased fighting in Homs and the escalating assault of Syrian troops on towns and villages near Lebanese border, a large-scale refugee influx into Lebanon was reported on 4 March 2012. The exact number of moving Syrian refegees was not clear, but was described around 2,000.^[272] The numbers of Syrian refugees were estimated at 130,000 in early March 2012.

On 10 April, it was reported that the number of Syrian refugees in four neighboring countries jumped by 40% within several weeks and stands at about 55,000 registered, almost half of whom are under 18 years old, according to U.N. figures.^[33] There were also estimated to be at least 20,000 refugees who have not yet registered, as well as 200,000 or more Syrians who were displaced within their own country.^[33]

Deaths[link]

The number of fatalities in the conflict, according to the Syrian opposition website Syrian Martyrs, was 15,623, updated to 30 May 2012.^[273] The number includes 1,293 military defectors, and does not include members of the government security forces.^[40] This number is significantly higher than the ones presented by other organisations, including the UN, one reason being they record deaths even when no name is given for the reportedly killed individual.^[274]

Reported deaths in violence across Syria.

Victims of the uprising in Syria from 26 January 2011 to 12 April 2012

Other estimates range from 9,785 to 14,350. Except for the L.C.C. estimate, which does not count security forces,^[274] all of the totals include civilians, rebels, and security forces:

Notes:
*Does not include fatalities for the period from 5 April to 11 April 2012.

Al Jazeera journalist Nir Rosen reported that many of the deaths reported daily by activists are in fact armed insurgents falsely presented as civilian deaths, but confirmed that real civilian deaths do occur on a regular basis.^[173] A number of Middle East political analysts, including those from the Lebanese Al Akhbar newspaper, have also urged caution.^[284][285]

This was later confirmed when in late May 2012, Rami Abdulrahman of the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights, which is one of the opposition-affiliated groups counting the number of those killed in the uprising, stated that civilians who had taken up arms during the conflict were being counted under the category of "civilians".^[286]

Combatant deaths[link]

The Syrian Martyrs does not include in their totals the number of government troops killed. Also, all totals, except the government number, do not count killed rebel fighters that were former civilians, only former military.^[286]

Reaction[link]

Domestic[link]

Arrests[link]

Days before protests planned for 5 February, Syrian authorities arrested several political activists, such as businessman Ghassan al-Najar, leader of the Islamic Democratic movement,^[289] the writer Ali al-Abdallah,^[290] Abbas Abbas, from the Syrian Communist Party^[291] and several other political personalities of Kurdish background, such as Adnan Mustafa.^[292]

On 14 February, blogger and student Tal al-Mallohi was convicted of spying for the United States and sentenced to five years in prison. Washington denied these allegations and asked for al-Mallohi's immediate release. On 15 February, under pressure from human rights organizations, the Syrian government released Ghassan al-Najar after he went on a hunger strike following his arrest for calling for mass protests.^[293]

On 22 March, Syrian authorities arrested Loay Hussein, a human rights campaigner.^[294] On 25 March there were reports of mass arrests and detentions of protesters taking place.^[295]

On 29 April, Dorothy Parvaz of Al Jazeera arrived in Damascus and was not heard of for several days^[296] The Syrian government later confirmed that she had been detained, she had attempted to enter the country illegally with an expired Iranian passport.^[297] She was released on 18 May after detention in Syria and Iran.

Many news outlets reported that a prominent LGBT anti-government blogger called Amina Arraf was allegedly arrested by Syrian authorities, but questions arose of whether she was a real person in the first place.^[298] She later tuned out to be an American man blogging under a false name, who had used a photo of a random British woman as that of "Amina".^[299] Later in that year, a prominent LGBT anti-government blogger called Razan Ghazzawi was arrested twice by Syrian authorities. Her arrest sparked an online outcry and an international campaign called for her release.

Zainab al-Hosni, who was claimed to have been detained and beheaded by Syrian authorities, later turned out to be alive.^[300]

A Syrian American man, Mohamad Anas Haitham Soueid, was charged by U.S. federal prosecutors on 5 October with tracking Syrian Americans supporting the uprising in the United States and passing information to Syrian authorities, who then arrested family members of the dissidents living in Syria. The U.S. government alleges that Soueid met with Assad during a two-week trip to Syria in summer 2011.^[301]

In October, Amnesty International published a report showing that at least 30 Syrian dissidents living in Canada, Chile, France, Germany, Spain, Sweden, the United Kingdom and the United States, faced intimidation by Syrian embassy officials, and that in some cases, their relatives in Syria were harassed, detained and tortured. Syrian embassy officials in London and Washington, D.C. were alleged to have taken photographs and videos of local Syrian dissidents and sent them to Syrian authorities, who then retaliated against their families.^[302]

In January 2012, a 718-page document claiming to be a leaked wanted suspects list from the Syrian Interior Ministry was published on the Internet. The list includes the names of thousands of dissidents accused of taking part in protests as well as armed activity against the Assad government. The document also names informants for the government.^[303]

In March 2012, Navi Pillay, the United Nations human rights chief, told the BBC, "they've gone for the children in large numbers. Hundreds detained and tortured [-] shot in the knees, held together with adults in really inhumane conditions", and stated that this must have been done with the approval of those "at the highest level."^[304]

Citizen journalist Mohammed Hairiri was arrested in April 2012, tortured in prison, and sentenced to death in May 2012 for giving an interview for Al Jazeera.^[305]

Censorship[link]

On 5 February 2011, there were reports that the government was limiting internet services, though Facebook and YouTube were reported to have been restored three days later.^[306] Suggestions were made that easing the ban could be a way to track activists.^[307] In August 2011, Syrian security forces attacked the country's best-known political cartoonist, Ali Farzat, a noted critic of Syria's government and its crackdown. Relatives of the severely beaten humorist told Western media that the attackers threatened to break Farzat's bones as a warning to stop drawing cartoons of government officials, particularly Assad. Farzat, who recently celebrated his 60th birthday, was hospitalized with fractures in both hands and blunt force trauma to the head. Also, government loyalists have been blamed for cutting the vocal cords of poets and other censorship crimes of this nature.^[308]

Allegations of rape[link]

Syrian activists claim government forces abducted and raped women in rebellious parts of the country, possibly using sexual violence as a means of quelling dissent. An opposition campaigner supplied The Globe and Mail with details about six previously unknown cases of violence against women, saying that more such incidents remain hidden as Damascus struggles to contain the uprising.^[309] Syrian refugees fleeing to Turkey reported mass rape by Syrian soldiers, but there were other reports that in the Turkish refugee camp, more than 400 women were raped and sexually abused.^[310]

Allegations of sexual violence committed by forces loyal to the Assad government include claims of mass rape, such as 36 women being assaulted by security forces in northern villages, 25 girls in Homs, and 20 individual cases of rape throughout Syria.^[311] Lauren Wolfe, the Director of the organization Women Under Siege, has said that assaults like these are underreported because the victims are often killed. Christina Walsh, who works with Amnesty International, has said that her organization has received reports of men being raped as well.^[312]

Concessions[link]

On 19 March 2011 by legislative decree 35, Assad shortened the length of mandatory army conscription from 21 months to 18 months.^[313] On 20 March, the Syrian government announced that it would release 15 children who had been arrested on 6 March for writing pro-democracy graffiti.^[314] On 23 March, by regional decree 120, Faisal Ahmad Kolthoum was removed as Governor of Daraa.^[315] On 24 March, Assad's media adviser, Buthaina Shaaban, said that the government will be "studying the possibility of lifting the emergency law and licensing political parties". The Syrian government also announced a cut in personal taxation rates, an increase in public sector salaries of 1,500 Syrian pounds ($32.60 US) a month and pledges to increase press freedom, create more employment opportunities, and reduce corruption.^[316]

On 26 March, Syrian authorities freed 260 political prisoners – 70 according to other sources – mostly Islamists, held in Saidnaya prison.^[317] On 27 March, Bouthaina Shaaban confirmed that the emergency law would be lifted, but did not say when.^[105] On 29 March, the Syrian cabinet submitted its official resignation to Assad.^[106] On 31 March, Assad set up a committee of legal experts to study legislation that would pave the way to replacing decades-old emergency laws. The committee was to complete its study by 25 April. Assad also set up a judicial committee tasked with investigating the circumstances that led to the death of Syrian civilians and security forces in the cities of Daraa and Latakia.^[318]

The government, dominated by the Alawite sect, also made some concessions to the majority Sunni and some minority populations in April. On 6 April, it was reported that teachers would once again be allowed to wear the niqab, and that the government had closed the country's only casino.^[319] Of the 200,000 descendants of Syrian Kurds denied citizenship in 1962, 120,000 who were labeled "foreigners" were granted citizenship.^[88]

On 7 April, Assad relieved the Governor of Homs province from his duties and issued a decree granting nationality to thousands of Kurds living in the eastern al Hasakah province^[320] while the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights said the 48 Kurds were released, more than a year after they were arrested in the eastern city of Raqqa.^[321] This came a day after Assad met with Kurdish tribal leaders to discuss citizenship issues concerning the Kurds of Syria’s north-eastern provinces, as hundreds of thousands of Kurds were stripped of their citizenship rights as a result of the 1962 national census.^[322]

On 16 April, Assad spoke to the People's Assembly in a televised speech, stating that he expected his government to lift the emergency law the following week. He acknowledged there is a gap between citizens and the state, and that government has to "keep up with the aspirations of the people".^[323] Later in the day he welcomed the new ministers in the Cabinet of Syria with a speech containing more specifics, including the need for a dialogue, popular support and transparency. He also spoke of citizenship for Kurds, unemployment, corruption and economic reform.^[324]

On 19 April, a bill was approved by the Syrian government to lift the emergency law.^[325] Two days later, Assad signed legislative decree 50 into law, together with decrees abolishing the Supreme State Security Court and regulating the right to peaceful demonstration.^[326][327] On 30 April, Prime Minister Adel Safar announced a comprehensive plan for reforms in the coming weeks in three areas: political reform, security and judicial reform; economic reform and social policies; and the development of administration and governmental work.^[328]

On 24 July, a draft law was created, to be debated by parliament, to allow more political parties, under the conditions that they were not based on religious, tribal or ethnic beliefs and does not discriminate against gender or race. Protesters have dismissed the law as superficial, as Article 8 of the Syrian Constitution, which grants the Ba'ath Party the role of leader of the state and society, would need to be repealed.^[329] On 12 December, local elections took place for the first time under a new local administration law. The reformed electoral law gives the local administrations more powers and financial independence, ensures supervision of the electoral process by judicial committees, and abolishes the "closed lists" system which guaranteed 50 per cent of all municipal seats to the Ba'athist National Progressive Front.^[149]

On 28 December, the state released 755 detainees "whose hands were not stained with Syrian blood".^[330]

As part of the Arab League peace plan, Syria released 3,500 prisoners on 3 January and a further 552 detainees on 5 January.^[331]

On 15 January 2012, president Al-Assad issued a general amnesty for those imprisoned for crimes committed in the context of the uprising.^[332] According to state news agency SANA, 5,255 detainees have been released as of 22 January, with the release of further prisoners still continuing.^[333]

On 15 February, Syrian state television announced that the government would hold a referendum on a new constitution on 26 February 2012, in an attempt to end the eleven-month conflict.^[334] One of the amendments in the draft would replace the old article 8, which entrenches the power of the Ba'ath party, with a new article reading: The state's political system is based on political pluralism and power is practiced democratically through voting.^[335] On 26 February, voting began at 07:00 local time at more than 13,000 polling stations, due to stay open for twelve hours. In the weeks leading up to the referendum, state television had been hosting discussions about the new constitution and informing citizens how to vote.^[336]

With a voter turnout of 57.4% and 89.4% voting in favour, the new constitution was adopted.^[337] President Al-Assad signed the new constitution into force on 27 February 2012.^[338]

Parliamentary elections were held after the ratification of the new constitution.^[339] After the elections, Mohammad Jihad al-Laham was elected as the new Syrian speaker of parliament.^[340]

Rallies in support of the Assad government[link]

Pro-government demonstration at Tishreen University

Since the start of the uprising, large crowds have rallied in the support of the Assad government, especially in the cities of Damascus,^[341][342] Aleppo,^[343] Tartus,^[344] and Lattakia^[345] Such rallies have been held since March 2011, and particularly following the suspension of Syria from the Arab League.

The Guardian reported on 22 March that one response of the Syrian authorities to the unrest was to organise pro-Assad rallies.^[346] Pro-Assad rallies were held in the capital city of Damascus on 25 March.^[295] In mid-June, rallies in support of Assad and his government increased; protests held in front of the French and Turkish embassies over their condemnations of the Syrian government's response to the unrest, and on 15 June, people at a pro-government demonstration in Damascus carried a 2.3 kilometre-long Syrian flag down Mezzeh boulevard.^[347] State television reported that two million people attended to express Syrian national unity and Syria's rejection of foreign interference in its internal affairs.^[348]

The day after Assad addressed the nation on 20 June, state television reported that over one million people gathered in Umayyad Square in Damascus, and there were demonstrations in Homs, Aleppo, Sweida, Lattakia, Deraa, Hasaka, Tartous, and elsewhere to express support for the reforms the president said he would carry out.^[349]

Other[link]

On 15 January 2012, SANA, the official Syrian news agency, announced a "general amnesty for crimes committed" during the uprising. The amnesty covered the period between 15 March 2011 and 15 January 2012.^[350] Hours later, Syrian authorities released 80-year-old former judge Haitham al-Maleh, one of Assad's most outspoken critics, under an amnesty marking the anniversary of the 1963 coup which brought the Ba'ath Party to power. Twelve Syrian human rights organisations called on the government to scrap the state of emergency which had been in effect for almost 50 years.^[351]

On 16 February, government critic and director of the Organisation for Democracy and Freedom in Syria (ODFS) Ribal al-Assad, son of Rifaat al-Assad and cousin to Syrian President Bashar al-Assad, held a press conference in London, in which he made it clear that he "does not want to see a Syrian revolution, but a peaceful change of power".^[352] In a 5 April interview, Ribal al-Assad warned of Syria's risk for a civil war.^[353]

On 8 March, Syria's deputy oil minister Abdo Hussameldin announced his defection and resignation on a YouTube video, denouncing Russia and China for backing the government and advising his colleagues to abandon the "sinking ship".^[354]

International[link]

Protest against Bashar al-Assad in Cairo

Rally in 2011 in support of Syrian President al-Assad in Sydney

The Arab League,^[355] European Union,^[356] Secretary-General of the United Nations,^[357] and many Western governments condemned the violence and the Syrian government's response to the protests, and many expressed support for the protesters' right to exercise free speech.^[358][359] China and Russia supported the government against international sanctions.^[360] Russia, whose Mediterranean fleet's primary naval base is in Syria, denounced the use of violence by the opposition and the presence of "terrorists" within its ranks.^[361]

Media coverage[link]

Under criticism from Internet activists for failing to acknowledge the Syrian uprising, some of the largest opposition parties in Syria that might have great political influence following any change of power were profiled.^[362]

Peace proposals[link]

Several peace initiatives and plans to resolve the 2011–2012 Syrian uprising have been issued to date. Among the most significant attempts to resolve the Syrian conflict was the Arab League peace plan and the resulting Arab League observer mission, launched in December 2011. In addition, Russian proposal was also issued, but reached a deadlock.

In early 2012, the "Friends of Syria Group" initiative was established, which resulted in a multi-national conference in Tunisia, in order to find a solution to the Syrian crisis in the Middle East. Successive meeting was held in Turkey during April. The Kofi Annan peace plan for Syria was initiated in February as Kofi Annan, former U.N. Secretary General was appointed as U.N.-Arab League peace envoy for Syria,^[363] The Kofi Annan peace plan is considered the most serious international attempt to resolve the Syrian conflict in the Middle East, and it plans to impose a cease fire beginning 10 April 2012.

See also[link]

	Human rights portal
	Syria portal

• Arab Spring
• Politics of Syria
• List of freedom indices
• Russia's role in the Syrian conflict

References[link]