Kevin Drum

Yes, There's a Business Model for Immense Riches With No Effort

| Mon Jan. 14, 2013 2:16 PM PST

This is so weird that I just have to comment on it. Via Tyler Cowen, it's Bruce Sterling, arguing that true artificial intelligence isn't in our future:

We’re no closer to “self-aware” machines than we were in the remote 1960s. Modern wireless devices in a modern Cloud are an entirely different cyber-paradigm than imaginary 1990s “minds on nonbiological substrates” that might allegedly have the “computational power of a human brain.” A Singularity has no business model, no major power group in our society is interested in provoking one, nobody who matters sees any reason to create one, there’s no there there.

Obviously I don't know any more than you do about whether or not we'll eventually create true AI. But no business model? Nobody interested in creating it? Nobody who even sees any reason to create it?

Huh? The business value of true AI is immense beyond measure. If you had it, you could run your business better than anyone else and far more profitably since you'd no longer need any human labor. And even if that weren't true, there are loads of people interested in creating it regardless. It doesn't even matter if there's a reason to create it. Lots of people are working their way toward that goal anyway.

I'm genuinely stonkered by this. If we never achieve true AI, it will be because it's technologically beyond our reach for some reason. It sure won't be because nobody's interested and nobody sees any way to make money out of it.

(As for the Singularity, a hypothesized future of runaway technological advancement caused by better and better AI, who knows? It might be the end result of AI, or it might not. But if it happens, it will be a natural evolution of AI, not something that happens because someone came up with a business model for it.)

Advertise on MotherJones.com

Lead and Crime: How It Connects to Race

| Mon Jan. 14, 2013 11:03 AM PST

Kieran Healy wrote this weekend about Becky Pettit's new book, Invisible Men, which deals with the mass incarceration of young black men over the past three decades:

Two features stand out: its sheer scale, and its disproportionate concentration amongst young, unskilled black men....Pettit and others have been arguing for a long time that incarceration is by now a modal event in the life-course for young black men. Black men are more likely to go prison than complete college or serve in the military, and black, male, high-school dropouts are more likely to spend a year in prison than to get married. These social-structural changes have consequences for measuring and counting those involved.

Kieran has more to say about this at the link, but I want to add something else: this is, in part, almost certainly due to lead poisoning via both gasoline lead and lead paint in substandard housing. Here are some excerpts from Rick Nevin's 2007 paper on international crime trends:

In 1960, blacks occupied 15% of central city households and 56% of substandard central city housing.... Average 1976–1980 blood lead for black children ages 6–36 months was 50% above the average for white children....Those children were juveniles when the 1990–1994 black juvenile burglary arrest rate was 60% higher than the white rate, but the black juvenile violent crime arrest rate was five times higher and the black juvenile murder rate was eight times higher.

....Social trends cannot explain why the 1990s homicide decline was so pronounced among juvenile offenders, and especially black juveniles, but blood lead trends can. Blood lead prevalence over 30 mg/dL among white USA children fell from 2% in 1976–1980 to less than 0.5% in 1988–1991, as prevalence over 30 mg/dL among black children plummeted from 12% to below 1%. The white juvenile murder arrest rate then fell from 6.4 to 2.1 from 1993–2003, as the black juvenile rate fell from 58.6 to 9.7. That 83% fall in the black juvenile murder arrest rate occurred with just 36% of black children living in two-parent families in 1993, and in 2003.

Both gasoline lead and lead paint were most prevalent in the postwar era in the inner core of big cities, the former because that's where cars were densest and the latter because slumlords had little incentive to clean up old buildings. Because African-Americans were disproportionately represented in inner-city populations during the high-lead era, they were disproportionately exposed to lead as children. The result was higher rates of violent crime when black kids grew up in the 70s and 80s.

The tragedy of all this is hard to overstate. In the 40s and 50s we exposed black children to enormous amounts of lead—far more than white children were exposed to. Because of this, many more of them became violent later in life, and thus became the primary targets of the great American prison-building binge of the 70s and 80s. To this day, they are paying the price for our unwitting lead poisoning epidemic of the postwar years.

In the same way that violent crime rates between big and small cities have converged as lead was removed from gasoline, crime rates between whites and blacks have converged as well. For a variety of reasons they haven't converged entirely, largely because gasoline lead isn't the only causal factor here. But it almost certainly played a significant role.

Quote of the Day: Naming Names in the Hostage Crisis

| Mon Jan. 14, 2013 10:03 AM PST

President Obama, explaining who's threatening to wreck the economy unless their pet spending cuts are enacted:

uh, certain extremist groups in Congress....

Oh, come on. Just say it, Mr. President. Republicans. Re. Pub. Li. Cans. That's not so hard, is it?

Which is Worse: Pedophile Teachers or Insane Gunmen?

| Mon Jan. 14, 2013 8:36 AM PST

From the LA Times today:

Behind a locked classroom door, a Los Angeles third-grade teacher purportedly committed lewd acts against students. The charges spurred demands for classrooms to remain open during the school day.

But after the shooting deaths of 20 first-graders in Connecticut last month, calls were made to keep classrooms locked.

The intent of both efforts is to keep students safe. But as school districts nationwide examine their security measures following the Newtown, Conn., massacre, the question of locked versus unlocked classroom doors is in debate. Should teachers and administrators use their secured doors as a shield from an outside danger? Or does a locked door conceal a potential danger inside?

I really hate living in the 21st century sometimes.

GOP to Press: Obama Must Help Save Us From Our Own Crazy People

| Mon Jan. 14, 2013 8:15 AM PST

Politico reports that House Republicans are determined to shut down the government in order to force President Obama to "finally cut spending" by the end of March:

GOP officials said more than half of their members are prepared to allow default unless Obama agrees to dramatic cuts he has repeatedly said he opposes. Many more members, including some party leaders, are prepared to shut down the government to make their point. House Speaker John Boehner “may need a shutdown just to get it out of their system,” said a top GOP leadership adviser. “We might need to do that for member-management purposes — so they have an endgame and can show their constituents they’re fighting.”

Obama, of course, has already cut spending by nearly $2 trillion over the past couple of years, and the upcoming sequestration cuts would cut spending even more. So there's no "finally" about it. It's been happening all along, but Republicans have somehow mesmerized the press into never actually saying this.

Aside from that, I wouldn't take any of this too seriously. "GOP officials," in this story, are obviously just spinning to make it sound like they don't have any choice and Obama should just cave now in order to placate the crazy people. It's probably good negotiating strategy, but that's all it is.

And frankly, I'm not sure it's even that. I mean, is it really a good idea to suggest that the Republican Party intends to shut down the government for "member-management purposes"? If that starts to percolate upward into the kind of news coverage that ordinary people watch, it probably won't make the GOP look all that great, will it?

Bottom line: (1) Spending has already been cut substantially. (2) Short-term spending shouldn't be cut anymore because the economy is still fragile. (3) Long-term spending needs to be addressed, but it's nowhere near as apocalyptic as Republicans like to make it sound. I wonder when the press will start reporting that?

Platinum Coins and Banana Republics

| Sun Jan. 13, 2013 2:12 PM PST

A couple of days ago Greg Sargent emailed to ask me why I was so opposed to the $1 trillion platinum coin as a way of evading the debt ceiling. After all, a lot of liberals argue that Republicans are threatening to turn the United States into a banana republic by refusing to allow our bills to be paid, so why shouldn't Democrats respond in kind? I think it's worth sharing my answer:

Fighting banana republic with more banana republic is far more dangerous than coin supporters think. It's one thing for Republicans to go crazy. It's another for craziness to essentially become institutionalized. When liberals stop fighting this kind of stuff, we really are on our way to banana republic-hood.

Is that self-explanatory? In the end, I think we'll end up with a negotiated solution of some kind to the debt ceiling standoff, so I don't consider the danger as great as some people do. But even if I'm wrong about that, I think there's a much bigger danger in the possibility of ridiculous unilateral legal hair-splitting becoming the norm in American politics. If that happens, then we really are just an unusually rich banana republic.

The answer to the debt ceiling nonsense is to force Republicans back into some semblance of responsibility and prudence. In the long term, it's the only way we survive. Barack Obama appears to understand that.

Advertise on MotherJones.com

Chart of the Day: We're Driving Less and Less and Less

| Sun Jan. 13, 2013 9:28 AM PST

Justin Horner points out today that, against all odds, Americans are continuing to drive less and less. Vehicle miles traveled per person plateaued in 2005 and then started declining dramatically in 2008. On average, Americans drove about 700 miles per year less in 2012 than they did in 2007.

So will this trend keep up? Horner offers three possibilities:

  1. The Interrupted Growth Hypothesis: VMT cuts are temporary and increases will resume once the economy picks up (although we know more VMT is not a required, or inevitable, part economic growth);
  2. The Saturation Hypothesis: car ownership and personal travel budgets have hit their limit, so no more growth is likely;
  3. The Peak Car Hypothesis: VMT has hit its peak, and history will now see a VMT decline of undetermined length.

In other words, he says, "in the future VMT will either go up, go down, or stay the same." His guess is that it will continue to go down.

Sorry, Peeps: No Platinum Coin For You

| Sat Jan. 12, 2013 1:21 PM PST

When it comes to the Most Important Political Topic Of Our Times™—namely the possible minting of a $1 trillion platinum coin—Ezra Klein advances the ball today. The idea behind this slow-news-week chimera is that the Treasury would mint the coin, deposit it at the Fed, and voila: the government has more money to spend even though we've hit the debt ceiling. Up to now, we've all argued about whether this is a good idea; whether it's legal; and whether President Obama would ever consider this option in the first place1. But there's always been another question rolling around in my head: would the Fed even accept the coin? If they won't, the whole idea runs aground instantly.

Well, it turns out they wouldn't: "Neither the Treasury Department nor the Federal Reserve believes that the law can or should be used to facilitate the production of platinum coins for the purpose of avoiding an increase in the debt limit," a Treasury spokesman told Ezra today.

So there you have it. Can we now please stop talking about this and find something else to chatter about next week?

1Answer: No, he wouldn't. I mean, seriously, folks. This is Barack Obama we're talking about here. Can you even imagine him buying into nutbaggery like this?

Lead and Crime: A Response to Jim Manzi

| Sat Jan. 12, 2013 10:11 AM PST

A couple of days ago Jim Manzi posted a long and technical critique of my hypothesis that gasoline lead is strongly linked to the rise and fall of violent crime that we've experienced over the past half century. (Detailed in "Criminal Element" in our current issue.) It's the kind of critique that probably ought to be addressed by an expert, but unfortunately there don't seem to be any in my living room at the moment. Just me. So I'm going to respond myself, and hopefully others may respond in their own way later on.

A quick note: I spoke to Manzi while I was preparing my article on the lead-crime hypothesis, and I've also read Uncontrolled, his excellent book about the inherent problems with econometric analysis (review here). So I'm not surprised that he has some pushback. Nonetheless, I think he pushes back too much.

The rest of this is likely to get long and a little wonky, and it doesn't contain any fascinating new factlets about lead that I left out of my magazine piece. For that reason, I'm going to put it below the fold. However, if you make it all the way to the end, there's an irony to our disagreement that you might find amusing. Click the link for more.

Friday Cat Blogging - 11 January 2013

| Fri Jan. 11, 2013 12:00 PM PST

Last week we were collectively musing about how to get a wider variety of cat + quilt photos, and one suggestion was to make a tent out of the quilt and just wait for Domino to burrow under it. As you can see, this worked like a charm. Especially during chilly Southern California winters (low 60s!), Domino is a big fan of burrowing under quilts.

The design of this week's quilt is "Yellow Brick Road," by Atkinson Designs. It uses fat quarters of tone-on-tone fabrics, with a contrasting border and backing. It's machine pieced and machine quilted.