January 14, 2013
How to Induce Explosive Debt Dynamics
The debt ceiling and implications of:
”We Republicans need to be willing to tolerate a temporary, partial government shutdown.”
and more recently
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Posted by Menzie Chinn at 11:30 AM permalink | Comments (4) | digg this | reddit
January 13, 2013
The near-term U.S. fiscal situation
Here I briefly survey some recent developments.
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Posted by James Hamilton at 01:40 PM permalink | Comments (11) | digg this | reddit
January 11, 2013
Guest Contribution: "Rewriting UK GDP history the chain-linked way"
Today we are fortunate to have a guest contribution by Sam Williamson, Research Professor at University of Illinois, Chicago, and President of Measuring Worth.
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Posted by Menzie Chinn at 04:00 PM permalink | Comments (3) | digg this | reddit
January 09, 2013
Guest Contribution: "The Myth of 'Jobless Recoveries'"
(a.k.a. Okun’s Law is Alive and Well)
Today we are fortunate to have a guest contribution written by Laurence Ball (Johns Hopkins University), Daniel Leigh (IMF) and Prakash Loungani (IMF) .
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Posted by Menzie Chinn at 11:45 PM permalink | Comments (42) | digg this | reddit
January 08, 2013
Understanding risk aversion in financial markets
At the economics meetings here in San Diego this weekend, I learned about some very interesting new research on one of the core questions in finance and macroeconomics that had long puzzled me.
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Posted by James Hamilton at 01:56 PM permalink | Comments (9) | digg this | reddit
January 04, 2013
Think Tanks in the Economics Profession (II)
Updating last year’s post, indicators via representation at the (now ongoing) Allied Social Sciences Association meetings.
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Posted by Menzie Chinn at 08:40 AM permalink | Comments (25) | digg this | reddit
January 02, 2013
The Economy’s Trajectory in 2013
The agreement arrived at on New Year’s day implies that output at the end of 2013 will be between 0.6 to 1.0 percentage points higher than it otherwise would be under what was until New Year’s, current law, according to CBO’s preferred multipliers. The uncertainty arises in part from the unresolved nature of the sequester deal.
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Posted by Menzie Chinn at 12:00 PM permalink | Comments (16) | digg this | reddit
January 01, 2013
QE3 and beyond
Now that we've closed the books on 2012, I thought it might be useful to take a look at where monetary policy has led us over the last four years.
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Posted by James Hamilton at 10:24 AM permalink | Comments (20) | digg this | reddit
December 29, 2012
The Year in Review II: Yet More Fantastical Pseudo Economics
Time to emulate the media’s "year in review" pieces, with my own take on the most outrageous, nonsensical assertions presented in the guise of analysis. Here are my ten most hilariously deluded excursions into the fantasy world from my postings to Econbrowser. The inspirations range from (once again) the Heritage Foundation's analyses (where have you gone, Bill Beach!) to the ongoing search for hyperinflation/crowding out.
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Posted by Menzie Chinn at 03:00 PM permalink | Comments (12) | digg this | reddit
December 27, 2012
Metrics for the “Ever Expanding Government”
The latest in a series examining persistent macroeconomic myths [1]
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Posted by Menzie Chinn at 07:50 AM permalink | Comments (32) | digg this | reddit
December 26, 2012
Investment and the business cycle
I fell a little behind on blogging with the holidays, so today I'll outsource to Calculated Risk.
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Posted by James Hamilton at 07:53 AM permalink | Comments (4) | digg this | reddit
December 20, 2012
Dragged to the Fiscal Slope
Implications of "I am not a member of an organized political party. I am a Republican." (with apologies to Will Rogers)
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Posted by Menzie Chinn at 07:43 PM permalink | Comments (20) | digg this | reddit
Confusion in the Anti-Keynesian Ranks
Some people think that if one takes into account intertemporal dynamics, policy must necessarily be ineffective
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Posted by Menzie Chinn at 08:40 AM permalink | Comments (30) | digg this | reddit
December 18, 2012
Future production from U.S. shale or tight oil
I attended the American Geophysical Union meeting in San Francisco two weeks ago at which I heard a very interesting presentation by David Hughes of the Post Carbon Institute. He is more pessimistic about future production potential from U.S. shale gas and tight oil formations than some other analysts. Here I report some of the data on tight oil production that led to his conclusion.
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Posted by James Hamilton at 05:56 PM permalink | Comments (27) | digg this | reddit
December 17, 2012
Guest Contribution: "An assessment of the US jobless recovery through a non-linear Okun’s law"
Today, we are fortunate to have a guest contribution written by Laurent Ferrara (EconomiX-CNRS, University Paris West) and and Valérie Mignon (EconomiX-CNRS, University Paris West and CEPII).
Posted by Menzie Chinn at 10:05 PM permalink | Comments (20) | digg this | reddit
Heritage on Gun Control
From their website:
The wake of a violent tragedy is an appropriate time for reflection, investigation, prayer, and the promotion of healing. It is a particularly inappropriate time for political opportunism. ...
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Posted by Menzie Chinn at 09:54 PM permalink | Comments (66) | digg this | reddit
December 15, 2012
Heritage at the Cutting Edge
The Heritage Foundation's blog criticizes my recent post thusly:
[Chinn] ignores the fact that Heritage Foundation economists, like most academic macroeconomists, have put away the old Keynesian model in favor of modern alternatives.
I thought it useful to see some of this advanced analysis in action at Heritage. From Heritage Foundation's Ron Utt -- admittedly a long time ago (2008!):
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Posted by Menzie Chinn at 08:00 PM permalink | Comments (36) | digg this | reddit