An energy crisis is any great bottleneck (or price rise) in the supply of energy resources to an economy. In popular literature though, it often refers to one of the energy sources used at a certain time and place, particularly those that supply national electricity grids or serve as fuel for vehicles. There has been an enormous increase in the global demand for energy in recent years as a result of industrial development and population growth. Supply of energy is, therefore, far less than the actual demand.

Causes

Market failure is possible when monopoly manipulation of markets occurs. A crisis can develop due to industrial actions like union organized strikes and government embargoes. The cause may be over-consumption, aging infrastructure, choke point disruption or bottlenecks at oil refineries and port facilities that restrict fuel supply. An emergency may emerge during unusually cold winters due to increased consumption of energy.

Pipeline failures and other accidents may cause minor interruptions to energy supplies. A crisis could possibly emerge after infrastructure damage from severe weather. Attacks by terrorists or militia on important infrastructure are a possible problem for energy consumers, with a successful strike on a Middle East facility potentially causing global shortages. Political events, for example, when governments change due to regime change, monarchy collapse, military occupation, and coup may disrupt oil and gas production and create shortages

Historical crises

1970s energy crisis - caused by the peaking of oil production in major industrial nations (Germany, United States, Canada, etc.) and embargoes from other producers

:* 1973 oil crisis - caused by an OPEC oil export embargo by many of the major Arab oil-producing states, in response to Western support of Israel during the Yom Kippur War :* 1979 oil crisis - caused by the Iranian Revolution

1990 oil price shock - caused by the Gulf War

The 2000–2001 California electricity crisis - Caused by market manipulation by Enron and failed deregulation; resulted in multiple large-scale power outages

Fuel protests in the United Kingdom in 2000 were caused by a rise in the price of crude oil combined with already relatively high taxation on road fuel in the UK.

North American natural gas crisis

2004 Argentine energy crisis

North Korea has had energy shortages for many years.

Zimbabwe has experienced a shortage of energy supplies for many years due to financial mismanagement.

Political riots occurring during the 2007 Burmese anti-government protests were sparked by rising energy prices.

Emerging shortages

Crises that exist as of 2008 include:

2000s energy crisis - Since 2003, a rise in prices caused by continued global increases in petroleum demand coupled with production stagnation, the falling value of the U.S. dollar, and a myriad of other secondary causes.

2008 Central Asia energy crisis, caused by abnormally cold temperatures and low water levels in an area dependent on hydroelectric power. At the same time the South African President was appeasing fears of a prolonged electricity crisis in South Africa. In February 2008 the President of Pakistan announced plans to tackle energy shortages that were reaching crisis stage, despite having significant hydrocarbon reserves,. In April 2010 Pakistan government announced the Pakistan national energy policy, which extended the official weekend and banned neon lights in response to a growing electricity shortage. South African electrical crisis. The South African crisis, which may last to 2012, led to large price rises for platinum in February 2008 and reduced gold production. China experienced severe energy shortages towards the end of 2005 and again in early 2008. During the latter crisis they suffered severe damage to power networks along with diesel and coal shortages. Supplies of electricity in Guangdong province, the manufacturing hub of China, are predicted to fall short by an estimated 10 GW. In 2011 China was forecast to have a second quarter electrical power deficit of 44.85 - 49.85 GW. It has been predicted that in the coming years after 2009 that the United Kingdom will suffer an energy crisis due to its commitments to reduce coal fired power stations, its politicians' unwillingness to set up new nuclear power stations to replaces those that will be de-commissioned in a few years (even though they will not be running in time to stop a full blown crisis) and unreliable sources and sources that are running out of oil and gas. It is therefore predicted that the UK may have regular blackouts like South Africa.

Social and economic effects

The macroeconomic implications of a supply shock-induced energy crisis are large, because energy is the resource used to exploit all other resources. When energy markets fail, an energy shortage develops. Electricity consumers may experience intentionally engineered rolling blackouts during periods of insufficient supply or unexpected power outages, regardless of the cause.

Industrialized nations are dependent on oil, and efforts to restrict the supply of oil would have an adverse effect on the economies of oil producers. For the consumer, the price of natural gas, gasoline (petrol) and diesel for cars and other vehicles rises. An early response from stakeholders is the call for reports, investigations and commissions into the price of fuels. There are also movements towards the development of more sustainable urban infrastructure.

In the market, new technology and energy efficiency measures become desirable for consumers seeking to decrease transport costs. Examples include:

In 1980 Briggs & Stratton developed the first gasoline hybrid electric automobile; also are appearing plug-in hybrids.

the growth of advanced biofuels.

innovations like the Dahon, a folding bicycle

modernized and electrifying passenger transport

Railway electrification systems and new engines such as the Ganz-Mavag locomotive

variable compression ratio for vehicles

Other responses include the development of unconventional oil sources such as synthetic fuel from places like the Athabasca Oil Sands, more renewable energy commercialization and use of alternative propulsion. There may be a Relocation trend towards local foods and possibly microgeneration, solar thermal collectors and other green energy sources.

Tourism trends and gas-guzzler ownership varies with fuel costs. Energy shortages can influence public opinion on subjects from nuclear power plants to electric blankets. Building construction techniques—improved insulation, reflective roofs, thermally efficient windows, etc.—change to reduce heating costs.

Crisis management

An electricity shortage is felt most by those who depend on electricity for heating, cooking, and water supply. In these circumstances, a sustained energy crisis may become a humanitarian crisis.

If an energy shortage is prolonged a crisis management phase is enforced by authorities. Energy audits may be conducted to monitor usage. Various curfews with the intention of increasing energy conservation may be initiated to reduce consumption. To conserve power during the Central Asia energy crisis, authorities in Tajikistan ordered bars and cafes to operate by candlelight. Warnings issued that peak demand power supply might not be sustained.

In the worst kind of energy crisis energy rationing and fuel rationing may be incurred. Panic buying may beset outlets as awareness of shortages spread. Facilities close down to save on heating oil; and factories cut production and lay off workers. The risk of stagflation increases.

Mitigation of an energy crisis

The Hirsch report made clear that an energy crisis is best averted by preparation. In 2008, solutions such as the Pickens Plan and the satirical in origin Paris Hilton energy plan suggest the growing public consciousness of the importance of mitigation.

Energy policy may be reformed leading to greater energy intensity, for example in Iran with the 2007 Gas Rationing Plan in Iran, Canada and the National Energy Program and in the USA with the Energy and Security Act of 2007. Another mitigation measure is the setup of a cache of secure fuel reserves like the United States Strategic Petroleum Reserve, in case of national emergency. Chinese energy policy includes specific targets within their 5 year plans.

Andrew McKillop has been a proponent of a contract and converge model or capping scheme, to mitigate both emissions of greenhouse gases and a peak oil crisis. The imposition of a carbon tax would have mitigating effects on an oil crisis. The Oil Depletion Protocol has been developed by Richard Heinberg to implement a powerdown during a peak oil crisis. While many sustainable development and energy policy organisations have advocated reforms to energy development from the 1970s, some cater to a specific crisis in energy supply including Energy-Quest and the International Association for Energy Economics. The Oil Depletion Analysis Centre and the Association for the Study of Peak Oil and Gas examine the timing and likely effects of peak oil.

Ecologist William Rees believes that

Due to a lack of political viability on the issue, government mandated fuel prices hikes are unlikely and the unresolved dilemma of fossil fuel dependence is becoming a wicked problem. A global soft energy path seems improbable, due to the rebound effect. Conclusions that the world is heading towards an unprecedented large and potentially devastating global energy crisis due to a decline in the availability of cheap oil lead to calls for a decreasing dependency on fossil fuel.

Other ideas concentrate on design and development of improved, energy-efficient urban infrastructure in developing nations. Government funding for alternative energy is more likely to increase during an energy crisis, so too are incentives for oil exploration. For example funding for research into inertial confinement fusion technology increased during 1970s.

Energy economists theorize that declining energy availability will result in a higher price for energy and that this will attract investment to procure new sources of energy that may be substituted. However as Michael Lardelli and others have pointed out, this hypothesis does not include the concept of Energy Returned on Energy Invested, which is important for example, when considering biofuels as an alternative to conventional energy supplies. The theory also assumes that capital investment in the substitution sector will be available even if a financial downturn caused by higher energy prices happens. Nor does the theory account for the fact that the most easily obtainable energy is extracted from reserves first because it provides the most profit leaving the smaller, harder to reach and more expensive to produce reserves.

Future and alternative energy sources

In response to the petroleum crisis, the principles of green energy and sustainable living movements gain popularity. This has led to increasing interest in alternate power/fuel research such as fuel cell technology, liquid nitrogen economy, hydrogen fuel, methanol, biodiesel, Karrick process, solar energy, artificial photosynthesis, geothermal energy, Space-based solar power, tidal energy, wave power, and wind energy, and fusion power. To date, only hydroelectricity and nuclear power have been significant alternatives to fossil fuel.

Hydrogen gas is currently produced at a net energy loss from natural gas, which is also experiencing declining production in North America and elsewhere. When not produced from natural gas, hydrogen still needs another source of energy to create it, also at a loss during the process. This has led to hydrogen being regarded as a 'carrier' of energy, like electricity, rather than a 'source'. The unproven dehydrogenating process has also been suggested for the use water as an energy source.

Efficiency mechanisms such as Negawatt power can encourage significantly more effective use of current generating capacity. It is a term used to describe the trading of increased efficiency, using consumption efficiency to increase available market supply rather than by increasing plant generation capacity. As such, it is a demand-side as opposed to a supply-side measure.

Predictions

Although technology has made oil extraction more efficient, the world is having to struggle to provide oil by using increasingly costly and less productive methods such as deep sea drilling, and developing environmentally sensitive areas such as the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge.

The world's population continues to grow at a quarter of a million people per day, increasing the consumption of energy. Although far less from people in developing countries, especially USA, the per capita energy consumption of China, India and other developing nations continues to increase as the people living in these countries adopt more energy intensive lifestyles. At present a small part of the world's population consumes a large part of its resources, with the United States and its population of 300 million people consuming far more oil than China with its population of 1.3 billion people.

William Catton has emphasised the link between population size and energy supply, concluding David Pimentel professor of ecology and agriculture at Cornell University, has called for massive reduction in world populations to avoid a permanent global energy crisis. The implication is that cheap oil has created a human overshoot beyond Earth's carrying capacity, which inevitably led to an energy crisis. Matthew Simmons and Julian Darley amongst others, have examined the economic effects of an energy crisis. Historian, and sociologist Franz Schurmann links an energy crisis with a deflating American dollar. He has stated that

According to Christopher Falvin, geopolitical factors have made the current fossil fuel-based energy system a risk management issue that undermines global security. As the major source of greenhouse gas emissions that accumulate in the atmosphere, fossil fuel energy is increasingly viewed as socially irresponsible. Joseph Tainter, an expert on societal collapse and energy supply, draws attention to the complexity of modern society and our ability to problem solve the wider issue of environmental degradation.

Agriculture

According to Kenneth S. Deffeyes, agricultural production depends heavily on hydrocarbons for energy, in the form of:

Petroleum to power machinery and transport goods to market

Natural gas to produce fertilizer and sometimes to power irrigation

Between the late 1940s and early 1980s, as the Green Revolution transformed agriculture around the globe, world grain production increased by 250%. Energy for the Green Revolution was provided almost always by fossil fuels. The 20th century population explosion is strongly correlated with the discovery and extraction of hydrocarbons.

The decision to develop a biofuel industry through subsidies and tariffs in the USA increased food costs globally. Lester R. Brown states that by converting grains into fuel for cars

Catastrophe

Some experts including Howard Odum and David Holmgren have used the term energy descent to describe a post-peak oil period of transition. Ron Swenson has described a looming peak oil crisis as a calamity unparalleled in human history. The peaking of world hydrocarbon production, known as peak oil may test Malthus critics. Michael C. Ruppert has discussed energy crises in relation to the petrodollar, oil imperialism and police states.

Cultural references

Fictional scenarios have been explored in;

''Frontlines: Fuel of War'', a first-person shooter game that depicts a global energy crisis in 2024 leading to war between Western Coalition (EU and USA) against Red Star Alliance (Russia and China) over the last remaining natural resources

''Ice'', online comic

''Mad Max'', depicts an energy starved post-apocalypse world

''Oil Storm'', a 2005 television docudrama that portrays a future oil-shortage crisis in the United States

''Soylent Green'', a film about a dystopian future in which overpopulation leads to depleted resources

''The Man Who Broke Britain'', a BBC docudrama

''The Running Man'', a fictional film depicts the effects of a global economic collapse.

''Monsters Inc.'', a Pixar animated film that takes place in a fictional world called "Monstropolis," for which Monsters, Inc. supplies power by extracting energy from children's screams. Monstropolis is in the middle of an energy crisis because children are harder to scare than they used to be.

See also

Commodity market

Embodied energy

Gasoline usage and pricing

Peak coal

Petroleum politics

Resource-based view

References

Further reading

''The Power of Community: How Cuba Survived Peak Oil'' - examines the effect of cold war oil shortages during the Special Period.

''Resource Wars: The New Landscape of Global Conflict'' by Michael Klare

''Half Gone: Oil, Gas, Hot Air and the Global Energy Crisis'' by Jeremy Leggett

''The Long Emergency'' by James Howard Kunstler, explores a psychology of previous investment

''Eating Fossil Fuels'' by Dale Allen Pfeiffer

''The Coming Oil Crisis'' by Colin Campbell

''Energy and American Society'' - disputes an energy crisis exists in 2007

''The Final Energy Crisis (2nd edition)'' ed by Sheila Newman (Pluto Press, London, 2008); a study of energy trends, prospects, assets and liabilities in different political systems and regions

''The End of Oil'' by Paul Roberts

External links

Worldwide energy shortages

Category:Emergency management Category:Peak oil Category:Resource conflict

af:Energiekrisis ar:أزمة طاقة cs:Ropný šok da:Energikrise de:Energiekrise et:Energiakriis es:Crisis energética (economía) fr:Choc pétrolier no:Energikrise ru:Энергетический кризис sk:Ropný šok sl:Energetska kriza zh:能源危機

Name	Christopher Hamlin Martenson
Birth date	September 15, 1962
Known for	Former Vice President of Pfizer, Inc. and Science Applications International Corporation
Nationality	USA }}

Christopher Martenson, PhD, is an American scientist who has done research in biochemistry, neurotoxicology, applied pharmacology and in vitro techniques. He received his doctorate in neurotoxicology at Duke University in 1994 with his thesis ''Acrylamide neurotoxicity: effect on neuronal growth cones and axonal fast transport'', and completed a post-doctoral programme at that university in 1995–1997 where he specialised in neuronal signal transduction and transport. Martenson also holds an MBA degree from Cornell University (1998) and is a fellow of the Post Carbon Institute.

Career

Christopher Martenson was Consultant In Business Development and Strategies of Pfizer, Inc. Later he became the Vice President of the company, and later still – a Vice President of Science Applications International Corporation's Life Sciences Division, which position he held till July 2005.

In more recent years Martenson stepped away from biological sciences and management to develop an educational video seminar series called The Crash Course (originally published in October 2008) based on neo-malthusian concepts. The course investigates the ways in which the economy, the environment and energy are interlinked and interact.

Publications

#Axonal transport: beyond kinesin and cytoplasmic dynein, ''Current opinion in neurobiology'', 1991–Oct, vol. 1 (issue 3): pp. 393–398 #Fast axonal transport is required for growth cone advance, ''Nature'', 366, 66–69 (4 November 1993) #Acrylamide neurotoxicity: effect on neuronal growth cones and axonal fast transport, a ''Duke University'' thesis, Ph.D. M377A 1994 LSC. #''In Vitro'' Acrylamide exposure alters growth cone morphology, ''Toxicology and Applied Pharmacology'', Volume 131, Issue 1, March 1995, pp. 119–129 #The effect of acrylamide and other sulfhydryl alkylators on the ability of Dynein and Kinesin to translocate microtubules ''in Vitro'', ''Toxicology and Applied Pharmacology'', Volume 133, Issue 1, July 1995, pp. 73–81 #Calmodulin dynamics within intact hippocampal cells, ''Duke University'', 1F32NS010263-01 (1996) #Inhibition of Lyn function in mast cell activation by SH3 domain binding peptides, ''Biochemistry'', 1997, 36 (31), pp. 9388–9394 #Internal trafficking and surface mobility of a functionally intact beta 2-adrenergic receptor – green fluorescent protein conjugate, ''Molecular Pharmacology'', 51:177–184 (1997) #Cornell equity research of ArQule, Inc., ''Cornell University'', 17 November 1997

References

Category:1962 births Category:Living people

Name	James E. Hansen
Birth date	March 29, 1941
Birth place	Denison, Iowa
Fields	Atmospheric Physics
Workplaces	The NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies
Alma mater	University of Iowa
Known for	Radiative transfer, Planetary atmospheres, Climate models
Influences	James Van Allen
Awards	United States National Academy of Sciences, Carl-Gustaf Rossby Research Medal
Signature
Footnotes	}}

James E. Hansen (born March 29, 1941) heads the NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies in New York City, a part of the Goddard Space Flight Center in Greenbelt, Maryland. He has held this position since 1981. He is also an adjunct professor in the Department of Earth and Environmental Sciences at Columbia University.

After graduate school, Hansen continued his work with radiative transfer models, attempting to understand the Venusian atmosphere. Later he applied and refined these models to understand the Earth's atmosphere, in particular, the effects that aerosols and trace gases have on Earth's climate. Hansen's development and use of global climate models has contributed to the further understanding of the Earth's climate.

Hansen is best known for his research in the field of climatology, his testimony on climate change to congressional committees in 1988 that helped raise broad awareness of global warming, and his advocacy of action to limit the impacts of climate change. In recent years, Hansen has become an activist for action to mitigate the effects of climate change, which on a few occasions has led to his arrest.

In 2009 his first book, ''Storms of My Grandchildren'', was published.

Early life and education

Hansen was born in Denison, Iowa. He was trained in physics and astronomy in the space science program of James Van Allen at the University of Iowa. He obtained a B.A. in Physics and Mathematics with highest distinction in 1963, an M.S. in Astronomy in 1965 and a Ph.D. in Physics, in 1967, all three degrees from the University of Iowa. He participated in the NASA graduate traineeship from 1962 to 1966 and, at the same time, between 1965 and 1966, he was a visiting student at the Institute of Astrophysics at the University of Kyoto and in the Department of Astronomy at the University of Tokyo. Hansen then began work at the Goddard Institute for Space Studies in 1967.

Research and publications

As a college student at the University of Iowa, Hansen was attracted to science and the research done by James Van Allen's space science program in the physics and astronomy department. A decade later, his focus shifted to planetary research that involved trying to understand the climate change on earth that will result from anthropogenic changes of the atmospheric composition.

Hansen has stated that one of his research interests is radiative transfer in planetary atmospheres, especially the interpretation of remote sensing of the Earth's atmosphere and surface from satellites. Because of the ability of satellites to monitor the entire globe, they may be one of the most effective ways to monitor and study global change. His other interests include the development of global circulation models to help understand the observed climate trends, and diagnosing human impacts on climate.

Atmosphere of Venus

In the late 1960s and early 1970s, Hansen published several papers on the planet Venus following his Ph.D. dissertation. Venus has a high brightness temperature in the radio frequencies compared to the infrared. Hansen proposed that the hot surface was the result of aerosols trapping the internal energy of the planet. More recent studies have suggested that several billion years ago Venus's atmosphere was much more like Earth's than it is now, and that there were probably substantial quantities of liquid water on the surface, but a runaway greenhouse effect was caused by the evaporation of that original water, which generated a critical level of greenhouse gases in its atmosphere.

Hansen continued his study of Venus by looking at the composition of its clouds. He looked at the near-infrared reflectivity of ice clouds, compared them to observations of Venus, and found that they qualitatively agreed. He also was able to use a radiative transfer model to establish an upper limit to the size of the ice particles if the clouds were actually made of ice. Evidence published in the early 1980s showed that the clouds consist mainly of sulfur dioxide and sulfuric acid droplets.

By 1974, the composition of Venus' clouds had not yet been determined, with many scientists proposing a wide variety of compounds including liquid water and aqueous solutions of ferrous chloride. Hansen and Hovenier used the polarization of sunlight reflected from the planet to establish that the clouds were spherical, and had a refractive index and cloud drop effective radius which eliminated all of the proposed cloud types except sulfuric acid. Kiyoshi Kawabata and Hansen expanded upon this work by looking at the variation of polarization on Venus. They found that the visible clouds are a diffuse haze rather than a thick cloud, which confirmed the same results obtained from transits across the sun.

The Pioneer Venus project was launched in May 1978 and reached Venus late that same year. Hansen collaborated with Larry Travis and other colleagues in a 1979 ''Science'' article that reported on the development and variability of clouds in the ultraviolet spectrum. They conclude that there are at least three different cloud materials that contribute to the images: a thin haze layer, sulfuric acid clouds, and an unknown ultraviolet absorber below the sulfuric acid cloud layer. The linear polarization data obtained from the same mission confirmed that the low- and mid-level clouds were sulfuric acid with radius of about 1 micrometer. Above the cloud layer was a layer of submicrometre haze.

Global temperature analysis

The first GISS global temperature analysis was published in 1981. Hansen and his co-author analyzed the surface air temperature at meteorological stations focusing on the years from 1880 to 1985. Temperatures for stations closer together than 1000 kilometers were shown to be highly correlated, especially in the mid-latitudes, which provided a way to combine the station data to provided accurate long-term variations. They conclude that global mean temperatures can be determined even though meteorological stations are typically in the Northern hemisphere and confined to continental regions. Warming in the past century was found to be , with warming similar in both hemispheres. When the analysis was updated in 1988, the four warmest years on record were all in the 1980s. The two warmest years were 1981 and 1987.

With the 1991 eruption of Mount Pinatubo, 1992 saw a cooling in the global temperatures. There was speculation that this would cause the next couple years to be cooler because of the large serial correlation in the global temperatures. Bassett and Lin found the statistical odds of a new temperature record to be small. Hansen countered by saying that having insider information shifts the odds to those that know the physics of the climate system, and that whether there is a new temperature record depends upon the particular data set used.

The temperature data was updated in 1999 to report that 1998 was the warmest year since the instrumental data began in 1880. They also found that the rate of temperature change was larger than any time in instrument history, and conclude that the recent El Nino was not totally responsible for the large temperature anomaly in 1998. In spite of this, the United States had seen a smaller degree of warming, and a region in the eastern U.S. and the western Atlantic Ocean had actually cooled slightly.

2001 saw a major update to how the temperature was calculated. It incorporated corrections due to the following reasons: time-of-observation bias, station history changes, classification of rural/urban stations, the urban adjustment based on satellite measurements of night light intensity, and relying more on rural station than urban. Evidence was found of local urban warming in urban, suburban and small-town records.

The anomalously high global temperature in 1998 due to El Niño resulted in a brief drop in subsequent years. However, a 2001 Hansen report in the journal ''Science'' states that global warming continues, and that the increasing temperatures should stimulate discussions on how to slow global warming. The temperature data was updated in 2006 to report that temperatures are now warmer than a century ago, and conclude that the recent global warming is a real climate change and not an artifact from the urban heat island effect. The regional variation of warming, with more warming in the higher latitudes, is further evidence of warming that is anthropogenic in origin.

In 2007, Stephen McIntyre notified GISS that many of the U.S. temperature records from the Historical Climatology Network (USHCN) displayed a discontinuity around the year 2000. NASA corrected the computer code used to process the data and credited McIntyre with pointing out the flaw. Hansen indicated that he felt that several news organizations had overreacted to this mistake. In 2010, Hansen published a paper entitled "Global Surface Temperature Change" describing current global temperature analysis.

Black carbon

Hansen has also contributed toward the understanding of black carbon on regional climate. In recent decades, northern China has experienced increased drought, and southern China has received increased summer rain resulting in a larger number of floods. Southern China has had a decrease in temperatures while most of the world has warmed. In a paper with Menon and colleagues, through the use of observations and climate models results, they conclude that the black carbon heats the air, increases convection and precipitation, and leads to larger surface cooling than if the aerosols were sulfates.

A year later, Hansen teamed with Makiko Sato to publish a study on black carbon using the global network of AERONET sun photometers. While the location of the AERONET instruments did not represent a global sample, they could still be used to validate global aerosol climatologies. They found that most aerosol climatologies underestimated the amount of black carbon by a factor of at least 2. This corresponds to an increase in the climate forcing of around , which they hypothesize is partially offset by the cooling of non-absorbing aerosols.

Estimations of trends in black carbon emissions show that there was a rapid increase in the 1880s after the start of the Industrial Revolution, and a leveling off from 1900-1950 as environmental laws were enacted. China and India have recently increased their emissions of black carbon corresponding to their rapid development. The emissions from the United Kingdom were estimated using a network of stations that measured black smoke and sulfur dioxide. They report that atmospheric black carbon concentrations have been decreasing since the beginning of the record in the 1960s, and that the decline was faster than the decline in black carbon producing fuel use.

A 2007 paper used the GISS climate model in an attempt to determine the origin of black carbon in the arctic. Much of the arctic aerosol comes from south Asia. Countries such as the United States and Russia have a lower contribution that previously assumed.

Dangerous anthropogenic interference

The United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change is an international environmental treaty that was aimed at stabilizing greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere at a level that would prevent dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system.

In 2003 Hansen wrote a paper called ''Can We Defuse the Global Warming Time Bomb?'' where he argues that human-caused forces on the climate are now greater than natural ones, and that this, over a long time period, can cause large climate changes. He further states that a lower limit on “dangerous anthropogenic interference” is set by the stability of the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets. His view on actions to mitigate climate change is that "halting global warming requires urgent, unprecedented international cooperation, but the needed actions are feasible and have additional benefits for human health, agriculture and the environment."

In a 2004 presentation at the University of Iowa, Hansen announced that he was told by high-ranking government officials not to talk about how anthropogenic influence could have a dangerous effect on climate because it's not understood what dangerous means, or how human are actually affecting climate. He describes this as a Faustian bargain because atmospheric aerosols have health risks, and should be reduced, but doing so will effectively increase the warming effects from .

Hansen and coauthors propose that the global mean temperature is a good tool to diagnose dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system. Two elements are particularly important when discussing dangerous anthropogenic interference: sea level rise and the extinction of species. They describe a business as usual scenario, which has greenhouse gases growing at approximately 2% per year, and an alternate scenario, in which greenhouse gases concentrations decline. Under the alternate scenario, sea levels could rise by 1 meter per century, causing problems due to the dense population in coastal areas. But this would be minor compared to the 10 meter increase in sea level under the business as usual scenario. Hansen describes the situation with species extinction similarly to sea level rise. Assuming the alternate scenario, the situation is not good, but it is much worse for business as usual.

The concept of dangerous anthropogenic interference was clarified in a 2007 paper. They find that further warming of 1 °C would be highly disruptive to humans. An alternative scenario would keep the warming to below this if climate sensitivity were below 3 °C for doubled . The conclusion is that levels above 450 ppm are considered dangerous, but that reduction in non- greenhouse gases can provide temporary relief from drastic cuts. Further, they find that arctic climate change has been forced by non- constituents as much as . They caution that prompt action is needed to slow growth and prevent a dangerous anthropogenic interference.

Climate model development and projections

Vilhelm Bjerknes began the modern development of the general circulation model in the early 20th century. The progress of numerical modeling was slow due to the slow speed of early computers and the lack of adequate observations. It wasn't until the 1950s that the numerical models were getting close to being realistic. Hansen's first contribution to numerical climate models came with the 1974 publication of the GISS model. He and his colleagues claimed that the model was successful in simulating the major features of sea-level pressure and 500mb heights in the North American region.

A 1981 ''Science'' publication by Hansen and a team of scientists at Goddard concluded that carbon dioxide in the atmosphere would lead to warming sooner than previously predicted. They used a one-dimensional radiative-convective model that calculates temperature as a function of height. They reported that the results from the 1D model are similar to the more complex 3D models, and can simulate basic mechanisms and feedbacks. Hansen predicted that temperatures would rise out of the climate noise by the 1990s, much earlier than predicted by other researches. He also predicted that it would be difficult to convince politicians and the public to react.

By the early 1980s the computational speed of computers, along with refinements in climate models, allowed longer experiments. The models now included physics beyond the previous equations, such as convection schemes, diurnal changes, and snow depth calculations. The advances in computational efficiency, combined with the added physics, meant the GISS model I could be run for five years. They showed that global climate can be simulated reasonably well with a grid-point resolution as coarse as 1000 kilometers.

The first climate prediction computed from a general circulation model that was published by Hansen was in 1988, the same year as his well-known Senate testimony. It used the second generation of the GISS model to estimate the change in mean surface temperature based on a variety of scenarios of future greenhouse gas emissions. Hansen concluded that global warming would be evident within the next few decades, and that it would result in temperatures at least as high as during the Eemian. He argued that, if the temperature rises above the 1950-1980 mean for a few years, it is the "smoking gun" pointing to human-caused global warming.

In 2006, Hansen and colleagues compared the observations with the projections made by Hansen in his 1988 testimony before the United States Congress. They described the intermediate scenario as the most likely, and that real-world greenhouse gas forcing has been closest to this scenario. It contained the effects of three volcanic eruptions in the fifty year projections, with one in the 1995, whereas the recent Mount Pinatubo eruption was in 1991. They found that the observed warming was similar to two of the three scenarios. The warming rates of the two most modest warming scenarios are nearly the same through the year 2000, and they were unable to provide a precise model assessment. They did note that the agreement between the observations and the intermediate scenario was accidental because the climate sensitivity used was higher than current estimates.

A year later, he joined with Rahmstorf and colleagues comparing climate projections with observations. The comparison is done from 1990 through January 2007 against physics-based models that are independent from the observations after 1990. They show that the climate system may be responding faster than the models indicate. Rahmstorf and coauthors show concern that sea levels are rising at the high range of the IPCC projections, and that it is due to thermal expansion and not from the Greenland or Antarctic ice sheets.

Following the launch of spacecraft capable of determining temperatures, Roy Spencer and John Christy published the first version of their satellite temperature measurements in 1990. Contrary to climate models and surface measurements, their results showed a cooling in the troposphere. In 1998, Wentz and Schabel determined that orbital decay had an effect on the derived temperatures. Hansen compared the corrected troposphere temperatures with the results of the published GISS model, and concluded that the model is in good agreement with the observations, noting that the satellite temperature data had been the last holdout of global warming denialists, and that the correction of the data would result in a change from discussing whether global warming was occurring to what is the rate of global warming, and what should be done about it.

Hansen has continued the development and diagnostics of climate models. For instance, he has helped look at the decadal trends in tropopause height, which could be a useful tool for determining the human "fingerprint" on climate. , the current version of the GISS model is Model E. This version has seen improvements in many areas, including upper-level winds, cloud height, and precipitation. This model still has problems with regions of marine stratocumulus clouds. A later paper showed that the model's main problems are having too weak of an ENSO-like variability, and poor sea ice modeling, resulting in too little ice in the Southern Hemisphere and too much in the Northern Hemisphere.

Climate forcings, feedbacks, and sensitivity

In 2000 he authored a paper called ''Global warming in the twenty-first century: an alternative scenario'' in which he presents a more optimistic way of dealing with global warming focusing on non-CO₂ gases and black carbon in the short run, giving more time to make reductions in fossil fuel emissions. He notes that the net warming observed to date is roughly as big as that expected from non-CO₂ gases only. This is because CO₂ warming is offset by climate-cooling aerosols emitted with fossil fuel burning and because at that time non-CO₂ gases, taken together, were responsible for roughly 50% of the anthropogenic greenhouse gas warming.

In a paper published May 18, 2007, Hansen discussed the potential danger of "fast-feedback" effects causing ice sheet disintegration, based on paleoclimate data. George Monbiot reports "The IPCC predicts that sea levels could rise by as much as this century. Hansen’s paper argues that the slow melting of ice sheets the panel expects doesn’t fit the data. The geological record suggests that ice at the poles does not melt in a gradual and linear fashion, but flips suddenly from one state to another. When temperatures increased to 2–3°C (3.6–5.4°F) above today’s level 3.5 million years ago, sea levels rose not by 59 centimeters but by . The ice responded immediately to changes in temperature."

Hansen stresses the uncertainties around these predictions. "It is difficult to predict time of collapse in such a nonlinear problem ... An ice sheet response time of centuries seems probable, and we cannot rule out large changes on decadal time-scales once wide-scale surface melt is underway." He concludes that "present knowledge does not permit accurate specification of the dangerous level of human-made [greehouse gases]. However, it is much lower than has commonly been assumed. If we have not already passed the dangerous level, the energy infrastructure in place ensures that we will pass it within several decades."

Responsibility for climate change

Hansen notes that in determining responsibility for climate change, the effect of greenhouse gas emissions on climate is not determined by current emissions, but by accumulated emissions over the lifetime of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere. By this measure the U.K. is still the largest single cause of climate change, followed by the U.S. and Germany, even though its current emissions are surpassed by the Peoples Republic of China.

On public policy, Hansen is critical of what he sees as efforts to mislead the public on the issue of climate change. He points specifically to the Competitive Enterprise Institute's commercials with the tagline "carbon dioxide—they call it pollution, we call it life", and politicians who accept money from fossil fuel interests and then describe global warming as "a great hoax." He also says that changes needed to reduce global warming do not require hardship or reduction in the quality of life, but will also produce benefits such as cleaner air and water, and growth of high-tech industries. He was a critic of both the Clinton and George W. Bush Administrations' stances on climate change. Addressing the potential effects of climate change, Hansen has stated in an interview in January, 2009, "We cannot now afford to put off change any longer. We have to get on a new path within this new administration. We have only four years left for Obama to set an example to the rest of the world. America must take the lead."

Hansen has been particularly critical of the coal industry, stating that coal contributes the largest percentage of anthropogenic carbon dioxide into the atmosphere. He acknowledges that a molecule of carbon dioxide emitted from burning coal has the same effect as a molecule emitted from burning oil. The difference is where the fuel originally resides. He says that most oil comes from Russia and Saudi Arabia, and that no matter how fuel-efficient automobiles become, the oil will eventually be burned and the emitted. In a 2007 testimony before the Iowa Utilities Board, he stated that the United States has a large reservoir of coal, which makes it a resource that can be controlled through action by U.S. politicians, unlike oil which is controlled by other countries. He has called for phasing out coal power completely by the year 2030.

During his testimony before the Iowa Utilities Board in 2007, Hansen likened coal trains to "death trains" and asserted that these would be "no less gruesome than if they were boxcars headed to crematoria, loaded with uncountable irreplaceable species." In response, the National Mining Association stated that his comparison "trivialized the suffering of millions" and "undermined his credibility." Citing the reactions of "several people" and "three of his scientific colleagues" as his primary motivation, Hansen stated that he certainly did not mean to trivialize suffering by the families who lost relatives in the Holocaust and then apologized saying he regretted that his words caused pain to some readers.

Hansen in his 2009 open letter to President Obama advocates a "Moratorium and phase-out of coal plants that do not capture and store CO₂". In his first book ''Storms of My Grandchildren'', similarly, Hansen discusses his ''Declaration of Stewardship'' the first principle of which requires "a moratorium on coal-fired power plants that do not capture and sequester carbon dioxide". Hansen also has spoken against cap and trade, instead advocating what he believes would be a progressive carbon tax at source carbon as oil, gas or coal, with a 100% dividend returned to citizens in equal shares

Honors and awards

Hansen was elected to the National Academy of Sciences in 1996 for his "development of pioneering radiative transfer models and studies of planetary atmospheres; development of simplified and three-dimensional global climate models; explication of climate forcing mechanisms; analysis of current climate trends from observational data; and projections of anthropogenic impacts on the global climate system." In 2001, he received the 7th Annual Heinz Award in the Environment (endowed with US$250,000) for his research on global warming, and was listed as one of Time Magazine's 100 Most Influential People in 2006. Also in 2006, the American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS) selected James Hansen to receive their Award for Scientific Freedom and Responsibility "for his courageous and steadfast advocacy in support of scientists' responsibilities to communicate their scientific opinions and findings openly and honestly on matters of public importance."

In 2007, Hansen shared the US $1 million Dan David Prize for "achievements having an outstanding scientific, technological, cultural or social impact on our world". In 2008, he received the PNC Bank Common Wealth Award of Distinguished Service for his "outstanding achievements" in science. At the end of 2008, Hansen was named by EarthSky Communications and a panel of 600 scientist-advisors as the ''Scientist Communicator of the Year'', citing him as an "outspoken authority on climate change" who had "best communicated with the public about vital science issues or concepts during 2008."

In 2009, Hansen was awarded the 2009 Carl-Gustaf Rossby Research Medal, the highest honor bestowed by the American Meteorological Society, for his "outstanding contributions to climate modeling, understanding climate change forcings and sensitivity, and for clear communication of climate science in the public arena."

Hansen won the 2010 Sophie Prize, set up in 1997 by Norwegian Jostein Gaarder, the author of the 1991 best-selling novel and teenagers' guide to philosophy "Sophie's World", for his " key role for the development of our understanding of human-induced climate change."

Controversies

Allegations of censorship

Hansen has stated that NASA administrators have tried to influence his public statements about the causes of climate change. Hansen said that NASA public relations staff were ordered to review his public statements and interviews after a December 2005 lecture at the American Geophysical Union in San Francisco. NASA responded that its policies are similar to those of any other federal agency in requiring employees to coordinate all statements with the public affairs office without exception. Two years after Hansen and other agency employees described a pattern of distortion and suppression of climate science by political appointees, the agency’s inspector general found that the NASA Office of Public Affairs had mischaracterized the science of climate change intended for the public.

Hansen has also appeared on ''60 Minutes'' stating that the George W. Bush White House edited climate-related press releases reported by federal agencies to make global warming seem less threatening. He also stated that he was unable to speak freely without the backlash of other government officials, and that he has not experienced that level of restrictions on communicating with the public during his career.

Trials for fossil fuel chiefs

In 2008 interviews with ''ABC News'', ''The Guardian'', and in a separate op-ed, Hansen has called for putting fossil fuel company executives, including the CEOs of ExxonMobil and Peabody Coal, on trial for "high crimes against humanity and nature", on the grounds that these and other fossil-fuel companies had actively spread doubt and misinformation about global warming, in the same way that tobacco companies tried to hide the link between smoking and cancer.

Arrests

On June 23, 2009, James Hansen, along with 30 other protesters including actress Daryl Hannah, were arrested on misdemeanor charges of obstructing police and impeding traffic, during a protest against mountaintop removal mining in Raleigh County, West Virginia. The protesters intended to enter the property of Massey Energy Company, but were blocked by a crowd of several hundred coal miners and supporters. Hansen said that mountaintop removal for coal mining "[provides] only a small fraction of our energy" and "should be abolished." Hansen called on President Barack Obama to abolish mountaintop coal mining.

Hansen and about 100 other people were arrested in September 2010 in front of the White House in Washington, DC. The group was seeking a ban on mountaintop removal or surface mining.

Hansen and 142 other activists were arrested in August 2011, at another demonstration in front of the White House. Hansen urged President Obama to reject the Keystone pipeline extension, intended to carry more synthetic crude oil from Canada's Athabasca Oil Sands to US markets.

Critics of Hansen

Andrew Freedman, an environmental journalist and columnist at the ''Washington Post'', believes the American Meteorological Society erred in giving Hansen its 2009 Carl-Gustaf Rossby Research Medal: "By citing his 'clear communication of climate science in the public arena,' they may have actually sanctioned his political advocacy. Such advocacy... threatens to paint the AMS as having a political agenda too." Other AMS members have also criticized the award.

Physicist Freeman Dyson is critical of Hansen's climate-change activism. "The person who is really responsible for this overestimate of global warming is Jim Hansen. He consistently exaggerates all the dangers... Hansen has turned his science into ideology.” Dyson "doesn’t know what he’s talking about", Hansen responded. "He should first do his homework." Dyson stated in an interview that the argument with Hansen was exaggerated by the New York Times, stating that he and Hansen are "friends, but we don't agree on everything."

After Hansen's arrest in West Virginia, ''New York Times'' columnist Andrew Revkin wrote: "Dr. Hansen has pushed far beyond the boundaries of the conventional role of scientists, particularly government scientists, in the environmental policy debate." In 2009, Hansen advocated the participation of citizens at a March 2 protest at the Capitol Power Plant in Washington, D.C. Hansen stated, "We need to send a message to Congress and the president that we want them to take the actions that are needed to preserve climate for young people and future generations and all life on the planet".

''New Yorker'' journalist Elizabeth Kolbert believes Hansen is "increasingly isolated among climate activists." Eileen Claussen, president of the Pew Center on Global Climate Change, said that "I view Jim Hansen as heroic as a scientist.... But I wish he would stick to what he really knows. Because I don't think he has a realistic idea of what is politically possible..."

''New York Times'' climate columnist Christa Marshall asks if Hansen still matters in the ongoing climate debate, noting that he "has irked many longtime supporters with his scathing attacks against President Obama's plan for a cap-and-trade system." "The right wing loves what he's doing," said Joseph Romm, a senior fellow at the Center for American Progress, a think tank. Hansen said that he had to speak out, since few others could explain the links between politics and the climate models. "You just have to say what you think is right," he said.

References

Further reading

External links

James Hansen's page at Columbia University

James Hansen's page at the Goddard Institute for Space Studies

Category:1941 births Category:American physicists Category:American climatologists Category:Living people Category:Members of the United States National Academy of Sciences Category:People from Crawford County, Iowa Category:NASA personnel Category:Sustainability advocates Category:Science activism

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