The US dollar and the Euro make up 90% of Allocated Reserves globally. Unallocated Reserves are not included in this graph, although they make up over 45% of total world foreign exchange holdings

A reserve currency, or anchor currency, is a currency that is held in significant quantities by many governments and institutions as part of their foreign exchange reserves. It also tends to be the international pricing currency for products traded on a global market, and commodities such as oil, gold, etc.^{[citation needed]}

This permits the issuing country to purchase the commodities at a marginally lower rate than other nations, which must exchange their currencies with each purchase and pay a transaction cost. For major currencies, this transaction cost is negligible with respect to the price of the commodity. It also permits the government issuing the currency to borrow money at a better rate, as there will always be a larger market for that currency than others.

History[link]

As emphasised by the economist Avinash Persaud, reserve currencies come and go. "International currencies in the past have included the Chinese Liang and Greek drachma, coined in the fifth century B.C., the silver punch-marked coins of fourth century India, the Roman denari, the Byzantine solidus and Islamic dinar of the middle-ages, the Venetian ducato of the Renaissance, the seventeenth century Dutch guilder and of course, more recently, sterling and the dollar.”^[1]

Before 1944, the world reference currency was the Pound Sterling. After World War II, the international financial system was governed by a formal agreement, the Bretton Woods System. Under this system the United States dollar was placed deliberately as the anchor of the system, with the US government guaranteeing other central banks that they could sell their US dollar reserves at a fixed rate for gold. European countries and Japan deliberately devalued their currencies against the dollar in order to boost exports and development.^[2]

In the late 1960s and early 1970s the system suffered setbacks due to problems pointed out by the Triffin dilemma, a general problem with any fiat currency under a fixed exchange regime, as the dollar was in the Bretton Woods system.^{[citation needed]}

Global currency reserves[link]

A 2011 study about the current dominant reserve currency in central banks shows that dollar may not be the obvious dominant currency, because of the major part of Unallocated Reserves increasingly reported by central banks since 2001.^[3] Thus the following table is only a limited view about the global currency reserves because it only deals with Allocated Reserves:

Theory[link]

Economists debate whether a single reserve currency will always dominate the global economy.^[4] Many have recently argued that one currency will almost always dominate due to network externalities, especially in the field of invoicing trade and denominating foreign debt securities, meaning that there are strong incentives to conform to the choice that dominates the marketplace. The argument is that, in the absence of sufficiently large shocks, a currency that dominates the marketplace will not lose much ground to challengers.

However, some economists, such as Barry Eichengreen argue that this is not as true when it comes to the denomination of official reserves because the network externalities are not strong. As long as the currency's market is sufficiently liquid, the benefits of reserve diversification are strong, as it insures against large capital losses. The implication is that the world may well soon begin to move away from a financial system dominated uniquely by the US dollar. In the first half of the 20th century multiple currencies did share the status as primary reserve currencies. Although the British Sterling was the largest currency, both the French franc and the German mark shared large portions of the market until the First World War, after which the mark was replaced by the dollar. Since the Second World War, the dollar has dominated official reserves, but this is likely a reflection of the unusual domination of the American economy during this period, as well as official discouragement of reserve status from the potential rivals, Germany and Japan.

The top reserve currency is generally selected by the banking community for the strength and stability of the economy in which it is used. Thus, as a currency becomes less stable, or its economy becomes less dominant, bankers may over time abandon it for a currency issued by a larger or more stable economy. This can take a relatively long time, as recognition is important in determining a reserve currency. For example, it took many years after the United States overtook the United Kingdom as the world's largest economy before the dollar overtook Sterling as the dominant global reserve currency.^[5] Schenk has shown in her 2009 study that in 1944 (Bretton Woods) the US dollar was chosen as the world reference currency whereas it was only the second currency in global reserves.^[5]

The G8 also frequently issues public statements as to exchange rates. In the past due to the Plaza Accord, its predecessor bodies could directly manipulate rates to reverse large trade deficits.

Major reserve currencies[link]

Distribution of global reserve currencies

United States dollar[link]

The United States dollar is the most widely held currency in the Allocated Reserves today. Throughout the last decade, an average of two thirds of the total Allocated foreign exchange reserves of countries have been in US dollars. For this reason, the US dollar is said to have "reserve-currency status", making it somewhat easier for the United States to run higher trade deficits with greatly postponed economic impact or even postponing a currency crisis. Central bank reserves held in dollar-denominated debt, however, are small compared to private holdings of such debt. In the event that non-United States holders of dollar-denominated assets decided to shift holdings to assets denominated in other currencies, there could be serious consequences for the US economy. Changes of this kind are rare, and typically change takes place gradually over time; the markets involved adjust accordingly.^[5]

However, the dollar remains until recently the favorite reserve currency because it has stability along with assets such as United States Treasury security that have both scale and liquidity.^[6]

US dollar dominant position in global reserves is very much challenged currently, because of the growing share of Unallocated Reserves, and because of the doubt regarding dollar stability in the long term.^{[7][8][9][10][11]}

Euro[link]

The euro is currently the second most commonly held reserve currency, comprising approximately a quarter of allocated holdings. After World War II and the rebuilding of the German economy, the German Deutsche Mark gained the status of the second most important reserve currency after the US dollar. When the euro was launched on 1 January 1999, replacing the Mark, French Franc and ten other European currencies, it inherited the status of a major reserve currency from the Mark. Since then, its contribution to official reserves has risen continually as banks seek to diversify their reserves and trade in the eurozone continues to expand.^[12]

Former U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan said in September 2007 that the euro could replace the U.S. dollar as the world's primary reserve currency. It is "absolutely conceivable that the euro will replace the US dollar as reserve currency, or will be traded as an equally important reserve currency."^[13] Econometric analysis by Jeffery Frankel and Menzie Chinn in 2006 suggests the euro may replace the U.S. dollar as the major reserve currency by 2020 if (1) the remaining EU members, including the UK and Denmark, adopt the euro by 2020 or (2) the recent depreciation trend of the dollar persists into the future.^[14][15] In recent years, the euro's increase in the share of the worldwide currency reserve basket has continued to increase—albeit at a slower rate than prior to the beginning of the worldwide credit crunch related recession and sovereign debt crisis, which adversely impacted the Euro and slowed its adoption^[16]

Other reserve currencies[link]

This section needs additional citations for verification. Please help improve this article by adding citations to reliable sources. Unsourced material may be challenged and removed. (November 2011)

Japanese yen[link]

Japan's yen is part of the International Monetary Fund's (IMF) special drawing rights (SDR) valuation. The SDR currency value is determined daily by the IMF, based on the exchange rates of the currencies making up the basket, as quoted at noon at the London market. The valuation basket is reviewed and adjusted every five years.^{[citation needed]}

The SDR Values and yen conversion for government procurement are used by the Japan External Trade Organization for Japan's official procurement in international trade.^{[citation needed]}

Pound sterling[link]

The United Kingdom's pound sterling was the primary reserve currency of much of the world in the 19th century.^[5] The emergence of the USA as an economic superpower (and, importantly, the establishment of the U.S. Federal Reserve System in 1913), U.S. economic dominance from the second half of the 20th century onward, as well as economic weakness in the UK at various intervals during the second half of the 20th century resulted in Sterling losing its status as the world's most reserved currency.^[5]

Since mid-2006 it is the third most widely held reserve currency, having seen a resurgence in popularity in recent years, growing from about 2.5% to around 4% of all currency reserves.^[17] Analysts say this resurgence is caused by carry-trade investors considering the pound as a stable high-yield proxy to the euro, as well as the position of London in world financial affairs.^[18]

Swiss franc[link]

The Swiss franc is often considered a reserve currency, because of the perceived stability of the currency and the Swiss banking system.^{[citation needed]} However, the share of all foreign exchange reserves held in Swiss francs has historically been well below 0.5%. The daily trading market turnover of the franc however, ranked fifth, or about 3.4%, among all currencies in a 2007 survey by the Bank for International Settlements.^[19]

Canadian dollar[link]

A number of central banks (and commercial banks) keep Canadian dollars as a reserve currency. In the economy of the Americas, the Canadian dollar plays a similar role to that played by the Australian dollar (AUD) in the Asia-Pacific region. The Canadian dollar (as a regional reserve currency for banking) has been an important part of the British, French and Dutch Caribbean states' economies and finance systems since the 1950s.^{[citation needed]} The Canadian dollar is also held by many central banks in Central America and South America. The Canadian dollar is held in Latin America because of remittances and international trade in each nation.^{[citation needed]}

Canadian economists primarily define and value the Canadian dollar in terms of the United States dollar, and thus by observing how the Canadian dollar floats in terms of the US dollar, foreign-exchange economists can indirectly observe internal behaviours and patterns in the US economy that could not be seen by direct observation (Canada’s primary foreign-trade relationship is with the United States). Also, considered a petrodollar, the Canadian dollar has only fully evolved into a global reserve currency since the 1970s when it was floated against all other world currencies. Some economists have attributed the rise of importance of the Canadian dollar to the long term effects of the Nixon Shock that effectively ended the Bretton Woods system of global finance.^{[citation needed]}

The Canadian dollar is used as a reserve currency around the world and in 2007 it was ranked 6th in value held as reserves.^[19]

Call for new major reserve currency[link]

A report released by the United Nations in 2010, called for abandoning the U.S. dollar as the single major reserve currency. The report states that the new reserve system should not be based on a single currency or even multiple national currencies but instead permit the emission of international liquidity to create a more stable global financial system.^[20][21][22]

Countries such as Russia and the People's Republic of China, central banks, and economic analysts and groups, such as the Gulf Cooperation Council, have expressed a desire to see an independent new currency replace the dollar as the reserve currency.

On 10 July 2009, Russian President Medvedev proposed a new 'world currency' at the G8 meeting in London as an alternative reserve currency to replace the dollar.^[23]

According to economist Michael Hudson, China has said, "we don't want to make any more foreign exchange reserve of any paper currency, because all the paper currencies are government debt currencies." China, Russia, India, Turkey, Brazil, Venezuela and oil-producing countries have recently agreed "to transact all of their mutual trade and investment in their own currencies" effectively minimizing the need, at least in the short term, for a global reserve currency.^[24] And yet oil is still priced in dollars, which has brought complaints about OPEC's policies of managing oil quotas to maintain dollar price stability.^[25]

Special Drawing Rights[link]

Some have proposed the use of the International Monetary Fund's (IMF) special drawing rights (SDRs) as a reserve.

China has proposed using SDRs, calculated daily from a basket of U.S. dollar, euro, Japanese yen and British pound, for international payments.^[26]

On 3 September 2009, the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) issued a report calling for a new reserve currency based on the SDR, managed by a new global reserve bank.^[27] The IMF released a report in February 2011, stating that using SDRs could help stabilize the world economy.^[28]

Chinese yuan[link]

The Chinese yuan or renminbi (RMB) cannot be used as a reserve currency as long as the Chinese government maintains capital controls on the conversion of its currency.^[29] The currency would not be attractive to central banks for holding unless China developed a strong open bond market.^[30] The Bank for International Settlements estimates that in 2010 around 0.9% of all currency market transactions were carried out in renminbi.^[31]

Chinese President Hu Jintao has said that it would be a long process before the yuan was accepted as a global currency.^[32]

See also[link]

• Commodity currency
• Exorbitant privilege
• Floating currency
• Foreign exchange reserves
• Fiat currency
• Hard currency
• Special drawing rights
• Triffin dilemma
• World currency

References[link]

The neutrality of this article is disputed. Please see the discussion on the talk page. Please do not remove this message until the dispute is resolved. (December 2011)

Gerald Celente (born November 29, 1946) is an American trend forecaster,^[1][2] publisher of the Trends Journal, business consultant^[3] and author who makes predictions about the global financial markets and other events of historical importance. Celente has described himself as a "political atheist" and "citizen of the world".^[4] He has appeared as a guest on television news shows such as The Oprah Winfrey Show, The Today Show, Good Morning America, CBS Morning News, The Glenn Beck Show, NBC Nightly News, The Alex Jones Show and Russia Today.^[5][6][7]

Background[link]

Celente was born in The Bronx, New York City, New York. He had early political experience running a mayoral campaign in Yonkers, New York and served as executive assistant to the secretary of the New York State Senate, which Celente called the worst job he ever had.^[8] From 1973 to 1979 Celente traveled between Chicago and Washington D.C. as a government affairs specialist.^[8] In 1980 Celente founded The Trends Research Institute (at first called the Socio-Economic Research Institute of America), now located in Kingston, New York, publisher of the Trends Journal which forecasts and analyzes business, socioeconomic, political, and other trends.^[9]

Forecasting[link]

His forecasts since 1993 ^[10] have included predictions about terrorism, economic collapses and war. More recent forecasts involve fascism in the United States, food riots and tax revolts.^{[3][11][12][13][14][15]} Celente has long predicted global anti-Americanism, a failing economy and immigration woes in the U.S.^[11] In December 2007 Celente wrote, "Failing banks, busted brokerages, toppled corporate giants, bankrupt cities, states in default, foreign creditors cashing out of US securities ... whatever the spark, the stage is set for panic in the streets" and "Just as the Twin Towers collapsed from the top down, so too will the U.S. economy ... when the giant firms fall, they’ll crush the man on the street." He has also predicted tax revolts.^[16][17] In November 2008 Celente appeared on Fox Business Network and predicted economic depression, tax rebellions and food riots in the United States by 2012.^[18] Celente also predicted an "economic 9/11" and a "panic of 2008."^[19]

In 2009 Celente predicted turmoil which he described as "Obamageddon" and he was a popular guest on conservative cable-TV shows such as Fox News Sunday and Glenn Beck's television program.^[6] In April 2009 Celente wrote, "Wall Street controls our financial lives; the media manipulates our minds. These systems cannot be changed from within. There is no alternative. Without a revolution, these institutions will bankrupt the country, keep fighting failed wars, start new ones, and hold us in perpetual intellectual subjugation."^[20] He appeared on the Glenn Beck show and criticized the U.S. stimulus plan of 2009, calling government controlled capitalism "fascism" and saying shopping malls in the U.S. would become "ghost malls."^[21] Celente has said, "smaller communities, the smaller groups, the smaller states, the more self-sustaining communities, will 'weather the crisis in style' as big cities and hypertrophic suburbias descend into misery and conflict," and forecasts "a downsizing of America."^[14]

Revolution in the USA[link]

On Russia Today, he predicted that the USA would face a revolution.^[22]

Neosurvivalism[link]

Celente's website has stated that:

Predictions[link]

2009[link]

"The Crash of '09 was as dramatic as the crash of '29. The New Depression had begun." (Trends Journal, Summer 2008, pg. 12)

2010[link]

Some areas of the U.S. are experiencing resurgences in real estate values due to highly localized factors, and some investors profit from this. However, the rises will almost all stop and reverse with time, and the overall national trend in real estate values is downward. (T.J. Summer 08, pg. 8)

Ghost malls have become a common sight across America. Especially hard-hit are big chain stores (Sears, Home Depot, etc.). (T.J. Summer 08, pg. 8)

2011[link]

Developers have begun rehabbing some of the ghost malls for more productive uses. (T.J. Summer 08, pg. 9)

2012[link]

The economic policies of the U.S. government over the past few years have failed to fix America's fundamental problems and have merely papered over them and in fact made them worse. By 2012, the "American Empire" is collapsing. In the U.S., basic staple goods like quality food and water are too expensive for most people to afford,(T.J. Summer 08, pg. 1) and "food riots" happen across the country (T.J. Summer 09, pg.1). Major American cities look like disaster zones, and mass homelessness exists across the country. Crime is rampant, with much of it being directed at the rich. (T.J. Summer 08, pg. 1) Kidnappings and ransomings of rich people are on the rise. Average people fed up with big government, high taxes and out-of-control spending join tax revolts. (T.J. Summer 09, pg. 1) The world is also experiencing major environmental problems and "the blackest of plagues." The global financial system has also "melted down" and the situation is very bad outside the U.S.(T.J. Summer 08, pg. 1) The advanced industrial economies collapse first, and their sagging consumer spending drags down the export-based economies of emerging economies next.(T.J. Summer 09, pg. 2) The economy is as bad as it was during the Great Depression in many ways. In spite of all this, the U.S. government, power elites, and mainstream media continue to insist that the fundamentals of the world economy are sound, and that official policies can lead to a recovery. A growing number of average people, however, doubt this. (T.J. Summer 08, pg. 1)

While the Mayan and Hopi prophecies of global destruction do not come to pass, 2012 is indeed a watershed year that sees the death of an ailing and unsustainable global economic system and lifestyle and its replacement with something better. (T.J. Summer 08, pg. 2)

By 2012, Obama is viewed by most as a stale president who sold himself as a fresh, visionary candidate in 2008 and instead proved to be a servant of the big corporations and the military-industrial complex like his predecessors.(T.J. Summer 09, pg. 5) His economic policies only delayed disaster and in fact have made the situation worse: Expansionary monetary policy and the various government bailouts and stimulus programs create a "Bailout Bubble" that invariably bursts in a cataclysm for the U.S. and world economy.(T.J. Summer 09, pg. 11) Obama blames other factors for this and might have even tried to start a war by 2012 to distract attention from the domestic misery.(T.J. Summer 09, pg. 12) Obama's foreign policy has also failed to accomplish anything significant on the world stage, and Pakistan is a mess and the Afghan war continues to drag on without hope of conclusion.(T.J. Summer 09, pg. 12)

In the 2012 U.S. elections, online news sites, bloggers and independent journalists wield as much influence on voters as mainstream media outlets (TV, cable, magazines, newspapers) for the first time. This breaks the corporate and moneyed stranglehold on American politics and allows a third party to attain nation-level recognition. (T.J. Summer 08, pg. 5)

Broad future trends[link]

Americans will adapt to lower standards of living and will travel less, both on a daily basis and for vacations. Higher fuel costs, advances in telecommuting and an aging American population will push many more people to work from home or close to home. Walking-distance communities will be constructed and will become popular. (T.J. Summer 08, pg. 7)

Geographically isolated resort destinations like Las Vegas will wither due to higher fuel costs, lower American incomes and increased overseas competition while vacation spots closer to population centers will revive. (T.J. Summer 08, pg. 9)

Government-run lotteries, on the other hand, will thrive. (T.J. Summer 08, pg. 9)

In America and to a lesser extent overseas, consumer spending habits will be motivated out of fear and escapism. Businesses that capitalize upon this will succeed. (T.J. Summer 09, pg. 24)

Publications[link]

• Trend Tracking: The System to Profit from Today's Trends (1991), ISBN 978-0446392877
• Trends 2000: How to Prepare for and Profit from the Changes of the 21st Century (1997), ISBN 978-0446519014
• What Zizi Gave Honeyboy: A True Story about Love, Wisdom, and the Soul of America (2002), ISBN 978-0066212661

References[link]

External links[link]

• trendsresearch.com
• geraldcelente.com

Barry Habib
Barry Habib
Born	(1960-01-15) January 15, 1960 (age 52) Brooklyn, New York, U.S.

Barry Habib (born January 15, 1960) is an American Entrepreneur, mortgage industry executive, and Vice President & Chief Market Strategist of Residential Finance Corporation (RFC).

Barry was the Chairman of the Board of Mortgage Success Source, a provider of products and services geared toward loan officers in the mortgage industry. He is the founder of Mortgage Market Guide, which helps to interpret and forecast activity in the mortgage rate and bond markets. Habib sold the company in 2007, remaining on as CEO until October 2010.

He has appeared regularly on Fox Business Network Fox Business Network and CNBC Networks, including his Monthly Mortgage Report show, which ran for 13 years on Squawk Box.

Biography-Mortgage Industry[link]

Early career[link]

Habib began his career as a loan originator in 1986 and founded Certified Mortgage Associates in 1989, a mortgage provider in Monmouth County, NJ. He sold the company in 1999 to Unity Bank and was hired as a National Sales Trainer by two mortgage companies, CTX^[1] and GMAC.^[2] Habib remained a loan originator until 2007.

Mortgage Resources[link]

Habib founded The Mortgage Market Guide in 2001, a product designed to help loan originators to more accurately anticipate market trends through analysis of industry, the bond market, and Japanese Candlestick Charts, a 300-year-old market indicator. United Communications Group (UCG), a provider of business information, tools and guidance for two million professionals worldwide acquired MMG in 2006.^[3]

In 2008, he merged The Mortgage Market Guide with two other mortgage industry information providers – Loan Tool Box and The Duncan Group to act as Chairman of the Board of Mortgage Success Source (MSS). Habib founded and created CMPS (Certified Mortgage Planning Specialist) in 2005 and transferred his interest in 2007.

Additional Experience[link]

In January 2012, Habib joined Residential Finance Corporation (RFC) as Vice President & Chief Market Strategist.^[4]

Habib works as a professional speaker on financial markets, housing, negotiation, technical trading analysis, sales training, building relationships and motivation. He has managed a Hedge Fund, authored a stock advisory newsletter, owned an insurance agency, and acted as managing partner in a real estate investment company.^[5]

Habib is Principal Managing Director in HIS - Health Care Imaging Solutions, a company which develops healthcare products.

Entertainment Industry Career[link]

Barry Habib is an investor in Rock of Ages – a musical theatre production running on Broadway and Internationally. The show received five 2009 Tony Award nominations, including Best Musical and Best Performance by a Lead Actor in a Musical,^[6] and an Outer Critics Circle Nomination and Drama League Nomination.

He had an acting role and executive producer credit in four films released in 2009.

• Sympathy for Delicious
• Barry Munday
• Nic & Tristan
• Lonely Street

Family[link]

Habib is currently a resident of New Jersey, where he lives with his wife of 12 years, Toni (née Toni Billand) and four children, Dan, Nicole, Jake and Jared.

He is a music enthusiast, particularly for 1980s rock.

External links[link]

• Mortgage Market Guide
• Barry Habib at IMDB
• Rock of Ages

References[link]

Murray Sabrin

Austrian School of Economics
Born	(1946-12-21) December 21, 1946 (age 65) Bad Wörishofen, Germany
Nationality	United States
Institution	Ramapo College of New Jersey
Field	Financial economics
Alma mater	Rutgers University Lehman College Hunter College

Murray Sabrin (born December 21, 1946) is a professor of finance in the Anisfield School of Business, Ramapo College of New Jersey,.^[1] In 2008 he was a candidate for the Republican nomination for the United States Senate in New Jersey, the seat currently held by Democrat Frank Lautenberg.^[2] He lost in the Republican primary to Dick Zimmer, a former member of the House of Representatives.

Family, education, and affiliations[link]

Sabrin was born in Bad Wörishofen, Germany on December 21, 1946. Sabrin's parents, being of Jewish ancestry, were among the only in his family tree to survive the Holocaust.^[3] Sabrin arrived in America with his older brother and parents in August 1949 and became a United States citizen in 1959. He lives with his wife of 39 years, Florence, in Fort Lee, New Jersey.^[4]

Sabrin has a Ph.D. in geography from Rutgers University, an M.A. in social studies education from Lehman College and a B.A. in history, geography and social studies education.^{[5][dead link]} Sabrin has worked in commercial real estate sales and marketing, personal portfolio management, and economic research.^[4]

Sabrin used to be executive director of the Center for Business and Public Policy at Ramapo College^[1] and the author of Tax Free 2000: The Rebirth of American Liberty.

Policy advocacy and opinion writing[link]

Sabrin's articles have appeared in The Record (Hackensack, New Jersey), The Star Ledger, Trenton Times, and the Asbury Park Press. His essays have also appeared in Commerce Magazine, Mid-Atlantic Journal of Business, and Privatization Review, and LewRockwell.com.^[6] Sabrin is a contributing columnist for NJBIZ^[7] and writes a column on the economy for START-IT magazine. Sabrin is a regular columnist for NJVoices^[8] and USADaily.^[9][10] He is writing a book on politics, the economy and culture titled Velvet Fascism: How the Political Elites Transformed America.^[4]

Political career[link]

Sabrin was the 1997 Libertarian Party gubernatorial candidate in New Jersey, and the first third party candidate to receive matching funds and participate in three official debates.^[11] He garnered 5% of the vote, a factor which contributed to the near-defeat of incumbent Governor Christine Todd Whitman (who had previously been viewed as a rising star in the national GOP) by Democratic nominee Jim McGreevey. Sabrin left the Libertarian Party, and was a candidate for the Republican Party nomination for the United States Senate representing New Jersey where he faced Republican state Senator Joseph Pennacchio and former Republican Congressman Dick Zimmer.^[12] Promoting limited government and nonintervention, he received endorsements from the Republican Liberty Caucus^[13] and U.S. Presidential candidate Ron Paul.^[14] He was defeated in the Republican primary, garnering 14% of the vote, behind Zimmer (46%) and Pennacchio (40%).^[15]

Books and articles authored[link]

• Sabrin, Murray (1995). Tax Free 2000: The Rebirth of American Liberty. Presscott Pr. ISBN 0-933451-25-3. 
• Sabrin, Murray (2005-05-10). "The Correct Cure for Health Care". NJBIZ (Journal Publications, Inc.). http://www.njbiz.com/article.asp?aid=62500. Retrieved 2008-03-05. ^{[dead link]}
• Sabrin, Murray (2005-07-12). "A Counterproductive Ideology in Trenton". NJBIZ (Journal Publications, Inc.). http://www.njbiz.com/article.asp?aid=64451. Retrieved 2008-03-05. ^{[dead link]}
• Sabrin, Murray (2005-09-30). "The Smart Way to Judge a Candidate". NJBIZ (Journal Publications, Inc.). http://www.njbiz.com/article.asp?aid=65160. Retrieved 2008-03-05. ^{[dead link]}
• Sabrin, Murray (2005-11-07). "Bernanke Policies Will Be Stop-and-Go". NJBIZ (Journal Publications, Inc.). http://www.njbiz.com/article.asp?aid=63976. Retrieved 2008-03-05. ^{[dead link]}
• Sabrin, Murray (2006-02-13). "Downsize the State's Bloated Budget.". NJBIZ (Journal Publications, Inc.). http://njbiz.com/article.asp?aid=66291. Retrieved 2008-03-05. ^{[dead link]}
• Sabrin, Murray (2006-05-01). "Letter to the Governor About Our Future". NJBIZ (Journal Publications, Inc.). http://njbiz.com/article.asp?aid=67072. Retrieved 2008-03-05. ^{[dead link]}
• Sabrin, Murray (2006-10-09). "Corzine’s Ideas Need Better Strategy". NJBIZ (Journal Publications, Inc.). http://www.njbiz.com/article.asp?aid=68654. Retrieved 2008-03-05. ^{[dead link]}
• Sabrin, Murray (2007-01-01). "Corzine’s First-Year Report Card". NJBIZ (Journal Publications, Inc.). http://www.njbiz.com/article.asp?aid=69461. Retrieved 2008-03-05. ^{[dead link]}
• Sabrin, Murray (2007-03-19). "Corzine’s Plan Perpetuates Nanny State". NJBIZ (Journal Publications, Inc.). http://www.njbiz.com/article.asp?aid=70201. Retrieved 2008-03-05. ^{[dead link]}
• Sabrin, Murray (2007-06-04). "New Jersey Wants the U.S. Out of Iraq". NJBIZ (Journal Publications, Inc.). http://www.njbiz.com/article.asp?aid=70932. Retrieved 2008-03-05. ^{[dead link]}
• Sabrin, Murray (2007-08-20). "We Need Free Enterprise, Not Debt". NJBIZ (Journal Publications, Inc.). http://www.njbiz.com/article.asp?aid=71654. Retrieved 2008-03-05. ^{[dead link]}

References[link]

External links[link]

• Official 2008 Senate Campaign website^{[dead link]}
• USA Daily news organization^{[dead link]}
• New Jersey-based regional web site
• Murray Sabrin archives at LewRockwell.com

Ron Paul
Member of the U.S. House of Representatives from Texas's 14th district
Incumbent
Assumed office January 3, 1997
Preceded by	Greg Laughlin
Member of the U.S. House of Representatives from Texas's 22nd district
In office January 3, 1979 – January 3, 1985
Preceded by	Robert Gammage
Succeeded by	Tom DeLay
In office April 3, 1976 – January 3, 1977
Preceded by	Robert Casey
Succeeded by	Robert Gammage
Personal details
Born	Ronald Ernest Paul (1935-08-20) August 20, 1935 (age 76) Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania, U.S.
Political party	Republican Party (1976–1988, 1988–present)
Other political affiliations	Libertarian Party (1988 election)
Spouse(s)	Carol Wells
Children	Ronnie Lori Rand Robert Joy
Alma mater	Gettysburg College (B.S.) Duke University (M.D.)
Religion	Southern Baptist
Signature
Website	Congressional website Campaign website
Military service
Service/branch	United States Air Force Texas Air National Guard
Years of service	1963–1965 1965–1968
Rank	Captain[1]
This article is part of a series about Ron Paul 2012 presidential campaign 2008 presidential campaign 1988 presidential campaign Political positions · Electoral history List of legislation sponsored by Ron Paul Ron Paul newsletters Ron Paul bibliography

Ronald Ernest "Ron" Paul (born August 20, 1935) is an American politician who has been the U.S. Representative for Texas's 14th congressional district, which includes Galveston, since 1997, and a three-time candidate for President of the United States, as a Libertarian in 1988 and as a Republican in 2008 and currently 2012. He is an outspoken critic of American foreign and monetary policies, including the Military–industrial complex and the Federal Reserve, and is known for his libertarian-leaning views, often differing from his own party on certain issues.

A native of Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania, Paul is a graduate of Gettysburg College and Duke University School of Medicine, where he earned his medical degree. He served as a medical officer in the United States Air Force from 1963 until 1968. He worked as an obstetrician-gynecologist from the 1960s to the 1980s, delivering more than 4,000 babies. He became the first Representative in history to serve concurrently with a child in the Senate when his son Rand Paul was elected to the United States Senate for Kentucky in 2010.^[2]

Ron Paul has been an active writer and publisher since the late 1970s, when he created the first of several newsletters bearing his name. He has published many books, beginning with The Case for Gold (1982) and including Liberty Defined: 50 Essential Issues That Affect Our Freedom (2011), End The Fed (2009), The Revolution: A Manifesto (2008), Pillars of Prosperity (2008), and A Foreign Policy of Freedom: Peace, Commerce, and Honest Friendship (2007). Paul has been characterized as the "intellectual godfather" of the Tea Party movement.^[3][4]

On July 12, 2011, Paul announced that he would forego seeking another term in Congress in order to focus on his presidential bid.^[5] On May 14, 2012, Paul announced that he would not be competing in any other Presidential primaries, though he is still competing for delegates in states where the primary election have already been held.^[6]

Early life, education, and medical career[link]

Ronald Ernest Paul was born on August 20, 1935, in Pittsburgh,^[7] the son of Howard Caspar Paul, who ran a small dairy company, and Margaret (née Dumont) Paul. His paternal great-grandparents emigrated from Germany, and his mother was of German and Irish ancestry.^[8][9]

As a junior at suburban Dormont High School, he was the 220-yard dash state champion.^[10] He graduated from Gettysburg College with a B.S. degree in Biology in 1957.^[10]

Paul earned a Doctor of Medicine degree from Duke University's School of Medicine in 1961, and completed his medical internship at the Henry Ford Hospital in Detroit and his residency in obstetrics and gynecology at Magee-Womens Hospital in Pittsburgh.^[11] Paul served as a flight surgeon in the United States Air Force from 1963 to 1965 and then in the United States Air National Guard from 1965 to 1968.^[12]

Paul and his wife then relocated to Texas, where he began a private practice in obstetrics and gynecology.^[13] He refused to accept Medicaid or Medicare payments, but routinely lowered fees for patients who could not afford to pay.^[14][15]

Early congressional career (1976–1985)[link]

While still a medical resident in the 1960s, Paul was influenced by Friedrich Hayek's The Road to Serfdom, which caused him to read many publications by Ludwig von Mises and Ayn Rand. He came to know economists Hans Sennholz and Murray Rothbard well, and credits to them his interest in the study of economics.^[16]

When President Richard Nixon "closed the gold window" by ending American participation in the Bretton Woods System, thus ending U.S. dollar's loose association with gold^[16] on August 15, 1971, Paul decided to enter politics^[17] and became a Republican candidate for the United States Congress.^[18]

Elections[link]

In 1974, incumbent Robert R. Casey defeated him for the 22nd district. President Gerald Ford later appointed Casey to direct the Federal Maritime Commission, and Paul won an April 1976 special election to the vacant office.^[19] Paul lost the next regular election to Democrat Robert Gammage by fewer than 300 votes (0.2%), but defeated Gammage in a 1978 rematch, and was reelected in 1980 and 1982.^[20] Gammage underestimated Paul's popularity among local mothers: "I had real difficulty down in Brazoria County, where he practiced, because he'd delivered half the babies in the county. There were only two obstetricians in the county, and the other one was his partner."^[21]

Tenure[link]

Paul has served in Congress three different periods: first from 1976 to 1977, after he won a special election, then from 1979 to 1985, and finally since 1997.

In his early years, Paul served on the House Banking Committee, where he blamed the Federal Reserve for inflation and spoke against the banking mismanagement that resulted in the savings and loan crisis.^[22][8] Paul argued for a return to the gold standard maintained by the US from 1873-1933, and with Senator Jesse Helms convinced the Congress to study the issue.^[16] He spoke against the reinstatement of registration for the military draft in 1980, in opposition to President Jimmy Carter and the majority of his fellow Republican members of Congress.^[23]

During his first term, Paul founded the Foundation for Rational Economics and Education (FREE), a non-profit "think tank" dedicated to promoting principles of limited government and free-market economics.^[24]

Paul proposed term-limit legislation multiple times, while himself serving four terms in the House of Representatives.^[23] In 1984, he decided to retire from the House in order to run for the U.S. Senate, complaining in his House farewell address that "Special interests have replaced the concern that the Founders had for general welfare.... It's difficult for one who loves true liberty and utterly detests the power of the state to come to Washington for a period of time and not leave a true cynic."^[25][26] (On Paul's departure from the House, his congressional seat was assumed by former state representative Tom DeLay, who would eventually become Speaker of the House.)^[27]

Committee assignments[link]

• House Banking Committee

1984 U.S. Senate election[link]

In 1984, Paul campaigned for the U.S. Senate, but lost the Republican primary to Phil Gramm, who had switched parties the previous year from Democrat to Republican.^[28] Another candidate of the senatorial primary was Henry Grover, a conservative former state legislator who had lost the 1972 gubernatorial general election to the Democrat Dolph Briscoe, Jr.

Inter-congressional years[link]

1985–1997[link]

Following the loss of the 1984 senate race, Paul returned to his obstetrics practice and took part in a number of other business ventures.^[8][29] Along with his former congressional chief of staff, Lew Rockwell, Paul founded a for-profit enterprise, Ron Paul & Associates, Inc. (RP&A) in 1984, with Paul serving as president, Rockwell as vice president, Paul's wife Carol as secretary, and daughter Lori Pyeatt as treasurer.^[30] The company published a variety of political and investment-oriented newsletters including Ron Paul Freedom Report and Ron Paul Survival Report, and by 1993 was generating revenues in excess of $900,000.^[31][32]

Paul also co-owned a mail-order coin dealership, Ron Paul Coins, for twelve years with Burt Blumert, who continued to operate the dealership after Paul resumed office in 1996.^[33][34] Paul spoke multiple times at the American Numismatic Association's 1988 convention.^[33] He worked with his Foundation for Rational Economics and Education on such projects as establishing the National Endowment for Liberty, producing the At Issue public policy series that was broadcast on the Discovery Channel and CNBC,^[24] and continuing publication of newsletters.

1988 presidential campaign[link]

Paul resigned from the Republican Party in 1987 and launched a bid for the presidency running on the Libertarian Party ticket. At the 1987 Libertarian National Convention, the party was split between a Conservative and Liberal wing. Paul represented the conservative wing, which was successful in fundraising, while the liberal wing claimed to have received ten times more (and more favorable) press coverage.^{[citation needed]} Paul argued, "Pro-life libertarians have a vital task to perform: to persuade the many abortion-supporting libertarians of the contradiction between abortion and individual liberty; and to sever the mistaken connection in many minds between individual freedom and the 'right' to extinguish individual life."^[35][36]

In the 1988 presidential election, Paul was on the ballot in 46 States,^[37] scoring third in the popular vote with 432,179 votes (0.5%).^[38] Paul was kept off the ballot in Missouri, and received votes there only when written in, due to what the St. Louis Post-Dispatch termed a "technicality".^[39]

According to Paul, his presidential campaign was about more than obtaining office; he sought to promote his libertarian ideas, often to school and university groups regardless of vote eligibility. He said, "We're just as interested in the future generation as this election. These kids will vote eventually, and maybe, just maybe, they'll go home and talk to their parents."^[37]

Paul considered campaigning for President during 1992,^[40] but instead chose to endorse Pat Buchanan that year, and served as an adviser to Buchanan's Republican presidential primary campaign against incumbent President George H. W. Bush.^[41]

Later congressional career (1997–present)[link]

An earlier congressional portrait of Paul

Elections[link]

1996 campaign

During 1996, Paul was re-elected to Congress after a difficult campaign. The Republican National Committee endorsed incumbent Greg Laughlin in the primary; Paul won with assistance from baseball pitcher, constituent, and friend Nolan Ryan, tax activist and publisher Steve Forbes^[8] and conservative commentator Pat Buchanan (both of whom had had presidential campaigns that year). Paul narrowly defeated Democratic attorney Charles "Lefty" Morris in the fall election, despite Morris' criticism over controversial statements in several newsletters that Ron Paul published.

1998–present

In 1998 and 2000, Paul defeated Loy Sneary, a Democratic Bay City, Texas, rice farmer and former Matagorda County judge.^[17] In the 2008 Republican primary,^[42] he defeated Friendswood city councilman Chris Peden,^[43] with over 70 percent of the vote^[44] and ran unopposed in the general election.^[45] In the 2010 Republican primary, Paul defeated three opponents with 80 percent of the vote.^[46]

On July 12, 2011, Paul announced that he would not seek re-election to the House in order to pursue the 2012 presidential election.^[47][48]

Tenure[link]

Legislation

Of the 620 bills that Paul had sponsored through December 2011, over a period of more than 22 years in Congress, only one had been signed into law – a lifetime success rate of less than 0.3%.^[49] The sole measure authored by Paul that was ultimately enacted allowed for a federal customhouse to be sold to a local historic preservation society (H.R. 2121 in 2009).^[49]

By amending other legislation, he has helped prohibit funding for national identification numbers, funding for federal teacher certification,^[17] International Criminal Court jurisdiction over the U.S. military, American participation with any U.N. global tax, and surveillance of peaceful First Amendment activities by citizens.^[50]

Affiliations

Paul was honorary chairman of, and is a member of the Republican Liberty Caucus, a political action committee that describes its goal as electing "liberty-minded, limited-government individuals".^[51] He is an initiating member of the Congressional Rural Caucus, which deals with agricultural and rural issues, and the 140-member Congressional Wildlife Refuge Caucus.^[52]

Committee assignments[link]

Rep. Paul serves on the following committee and subcommittees.^[53]

• Committee on Financial Services
  • Subcommittee on Domestic Monetary Policy and Technology (Chairman)
  • Subcommittee on International Monetary Policy and Trade
• Committee on Foreign Affairs
  • Subcommittee on Oversight and Investigations

With the election of the 112th Congress, and a resulting GOP majority in the House, Paul became the chairman of the Subcommittee on Domestic Monetary Policy and Technology starting in January 2011.^[54]

2008 presidential campaign[link]

Ron Paul being interviewed the day of the New Hampshire primary in Manchester

2008 Republican primary campaign[link]

Paul formally declared his candidacy for the 2008 Republican nomination on March 12, 2007, on C-SPAN.^[55] Few major politicians endorsed him, and his campaign was largely ignored by traditional media.^[56] However, he attracted an intensely loyal grassroots following, in large part energized by "iconoclastic white men"^[57] interacting through internet social media.^[58][59][60] In May 2007, shortly after the first televised primary debates, the blogs search engine site Technorati.com listed Paul's name as the term most frequently searched for;^[58] and Paul's campaign claimed that Paul had more YouTube channel subscribers than Barack Obama or any other candidate for president.^[61] For a candidate who had had relatively low national name recognition prior to entering the race, Paul did surprisingly well in fundraising, taking in more money than any other Republican candidate in the fourth quarter of 2007, as the primary season headed into the Iowa caucuses.^[62][63]

Despite benefiting from large numbers of campaign contributions from individual donors,^[64] and the efforts of tech-savvy supporters determined to keep his name a frequent topic of discussion on the internet,^[58] over the course of the campaign Paul was unable to translate the enthusiasm of his core supporters into large enough numbers of actual primary votes to unseat his rivals.

Paul came in 5th place in both the January 4 Iowa caucuses (10% of votes cast)^[65] and the January 8 New Hampshire primary (8%).^[66] With the exception of the Nevada caucuses January 19, where he came in 2nd (14%) behind Romney (51%), he did little better through the rest of January: Michigan 4th (6%), South Carolina 5th (4%), Florida 5th (3%). On SuperTuesday, February 5, he placed 4th in almost every state, generally taking in a mere 3–6% of the votes (although he did better in the mountain states of North Dakota (21%, 3rd place) and Montana (25%, 2nd place).^[67][68]

By March, front-runner John McCain had secured enough pledged delegates to guarantee that he would win the nomination, and Romney and Huckabee had both formally withdrawn from the race. Paul, who had won no state primaries, knew that it was now mathematically impossible for him to win the nomination, as he had captured only 20^[69] – 40 pledged delegates compared to more than 1,191 for McCain, yet he refused to concede the race and said that it was unlikely that he would ultimately endorse McCain.^[70][71][72] Over the next few weeks, Paul's supporters clashed with establishment Republicans at several county and state party conventions over state party rules, the party platforms, and selection of delegates for the national convention.^[73][74][75] In one of the more dramatic moments, Nevada's state party leaders, outmaneuvered by Paul supporters at the state nominating convention, resorted to the highly unusual measure of prematurely and abruptly shutting down the convention before selecting national delegates, with a plan to reconvene at a later date.^[76][77]

On June 12, 2008, Paul finally withdrew his bid for the Republican nomination. He later said that one of the reasons he did not run in the general election as a third-party candidate, after losing the primary election, was that, as a concession to gain ballot access in certain states, he had signed legally-binding agreements to not run a third-party campaign if he lost the primary.^[78] Some of the $4 million remaining campaign contributions was invested into the new political action and advocacy group called Ron Paul's Campaign for Liberty.^[79]

Refusal to endorse the Republican candidate[link]

At a September 10, 2008, press conference, Paul announced his general support of four third-party candidates: Cynthia McKinney (Green Party); Bob Barr (Libertarian Party); Chuck Baldwin (Constitution Party); and Ralph Nader (independent). He said that each of them had pledged to adhere to a policy of balancing budgets, bringing the troops home, defending privacy and personal liberties, and investigating the Federal Reserve. Paul also said that under no circumstances would he be endorsing either of the two dominant parties' candidates (McCain – Republican Party, or Obama – Democratic Party) because there were no real differences between them, and because neither of them, if elected, would seek to make the fundamental changes in governance that were necessary. He urged instead that, rather than contribute to the “charade” that the two-party election system had become, the voters support the third-party candidates as a protest vote, to force change in the election process.^[80][81] Later that same day, Paul gave a televised interview with Nader saying much the same again.^[82]

Two weeks later, "shocked and disappointed" that Bob Barr (the Libertarian candidate) had pulled out of attending the press conference at the last minute and had admonished Paul for remaining neutral and failing to say which specific candidate Paul would vote for in the general election, Paul released a statement saying that he had decided to endorse Chuck Baldwin, the Constitution Party candidate, for president.^[83]

In the November 2008 general election, Paul received 41,905 votes despite not actively campaigning.^[84][85]

2012 presidential campaign[link]

Ron Paul during his 2012 presidential election campaign in Las Vegas, Nevada.

Paul is a candidate for the Republican Party nomination for President of the United States in the 2012 election.

He won several early straw polls for the 2012 Republican presidential nomination ^[86] and in late April, 2011, he formed an official exploratory committee.^[87][88] He participated in the first Republican presidential debate on May 5, 2011.^[89] and on May 13, 2011, Paul formally announced his candidacy in an interview on ABC's Good Morning America.^[90] He placed second in the 2011 Ames Straw Poll, missing first by 0.9%.^[91]

In December 2011, with Ron Paul's increased support, the controversy over allegedly racist and homophobic statements in several Ron Paul newsletters in the 1980s and early 1990s once again gained media attention.^[92] During this time Paul supporters asserted that he was continually ignored by the media despite his significant support, citing examples of where television news shows would fail to mention Paul in discussions of the Republican presidential hopefuls even when he was polling second.^{[93][94][95][96]}

Paul came in third in the Iowa Republican Caucus held on January 3, 2012. Out of a turnout of 121,503 votes, Paul took 26,036 (21%) of the certified votes. Rick Santorum and Mitt Romney finished in a virtual tie for first place with 25% each.^[97] In the New Hampshire Primary held on January 10, 2012, Paul received 23% of the votes and came in second after Romney's 39%.^[98]

Ron Paul's results then declined, despite the withdrawal of candidates Michele Bachmann, Jon Huntsman and Rick Perry. He had fourth place finishes in the next two primaries, on January 21st in South Carolina (with 13% of the vote^[99]) and on January 31st in Florida (where he received 7% of the vote.^{[100][101][102]})

On February 4, Paul finished third in Nevada with 18.8% of the vote.^[103] Three non-binding primaries were held on February 7th; Paul took 3rd place in Colorado^[104] and Missouri^[105] with 13% and 12% of the vote respectively. He fared better in Minnesota^[106] with 27%, finishing second to Rick Santorum.

On May 14, Paul's campaign announced that due to lack of funds he would no longer actively campaign for votes in the 11 remaining primary states, including Texas and California, that had not yet voted.^[6][107] He would, however, continue to seek to win delegates for the national party convention in the states that had already voted.

Political party identification[link]

Throughout his entire tenure in Congress, Paul has represented his district as a member of the Republican Party. However, he has frequently taken positions in direct opposition to the other members and the leadership of the party, and he has sometimes publicly questioned whether he really belonged in the party.

He had been a lifelong supporter of the Republican Party by the time he entered politics in the mid 1970s.^[108] He was one of the first elected officials in the nation to support Ronald Reagan's presidential campaign,^[109] and he actively campaigned for Reagan in 1976 and 1980.^[110] After Reagan's election in 1980, Paul quickly became disillusioned with the Reagan administration's policies. He later recalled being the only Republican to vote against Reagan budget proposals in 1981,^[111][112] aghast that "in 1977, Jimmy Carter proposed a budget with a $38 billion deficit, and every Republican in the House voted against it. In 1981, Reagan proposed a budget with a $45 billion deficit – which turned out to be $113 billion – and Republicans were cheering his great victory. They were living in a storybook land."^[109] He expressed his disgust with the political culture of both major parties in a speech delivered in 1984 upon resigning from the House of Representatives to prepare for a (failed) run for the Senate, and he eventually apologized to his Libertarian friends for having supported Reagan.^[111]