NISP Knowledge Economy Report: Flaky Economics

OEKEThe local media yesterday covered the publication of the NI Science Park’s annually commissioned tome from Oxford Economics on the state of Northern Ireland’s “Knowledge Economy”. The report – with lots of tables and data – runs to 50 or so pages. Most of it is a re-hash of publicly available statistics. Its conclusions are that Northern Ireland’s knowledge economy lags the UK’s.

But the report – typical of reports published by Oxford Economics – offers little insight into the causes. But, more fundamentally, it doesn’t even attempt to unpick the meaning of knowledge economy. Nor does it take any positions that help to define policy agendas. In short it’s confused and, therefore, unimportant.

Let’s start with the term “knowledge economy”. It’s patently meaningless. Moreover the definition offered by the authors is so wide – in terms of industrial activity – that the conclusions reached in the report have to be seen to be completely flaky. The authors have included ‘creative and digital media’ alongside ‘IT services’ and ‘other technical services’ and even ‘transport equipment’. (I also noted that the work of Economists wasn’t included in the definition). Also, the work of university researchers seems to be excluded.  Nor could I see any reference to knowledge staff employed in sectors outside of IT and pharma.

In short, the report seems to define knowledge as something that exists solely in certain business sectors but not in others – and that doesn’t exist in publicly funded research centres at all (even though universities conduct a great deal of privately commissioned research). Banks employ thousands of knowledge workers. So do retail organisations, engineering firms, hospitals. Indeed, knowledge workers – people with deep technical skills – are employed in just about every sector.

Moreover, many so-called knowledge businesses – especially in the ‘transport equipment’ and ‘other technical services’ category employ a lot of low-skilled and low-paid staff. Because Oxford Economics has merely based its analysis on aggregated data of certain commercial sectors – rather than conduct primary research – it has no idea how many staff in the various categories are real knowledge workers. I’d suspect very few.

Indeed the categorisation is based on the grand-sounding “San Diego CONNECT model”. But it’s not made clear whether this model is one that’s used in other places as a basis for determining the relative size of the knowledge economy.

And because this ‘model’ is used as the basis for future employment projections one really has to question the targets if we’re not even sure how many real knowledge workers are included in the current analysis.

The fact is that the number of knowledge workers in any economy is a function of demand and a function of the size of the commercial sector. Northern Ireland’s commercial sector is squeezed-out by the state.  We have grotesquely high levels of state employment and relatively few big companies.

Big companies tend to have the deepest pockets and spend most on knowledge staff in the local area. Hence London is a power-house consumer of knowledge workers. The city of London is sustained by knowledge workers – and they work, typically, in banking. The financial services sector employs tens of thousands of the most able computing specialists. They run huge databases, data mining solutions, real-time transactional processing systems, CRM systems. Manufacturing companies of all types in Manchester and Birmingham (most excluded from the Oxford Economics KE Index) employ business process specialists, supply chain logistics people, specialists in enterprise resource planning, robotics gurus.

Therefore, where we see clusters of big business we see clusters of knowledge workers. We also see the lion’s share of R&D research being commissioned from the leading researchers based at the finest research institutions – such as Imperial College or UMIST.

Yet there is no analysis in the Oxford Economics report of where Northern Ireland has been successful – or where our universities have managed to become global trail-blazers in terms of commissioned R&D.

And yet, that’s where the opportunity lies.

The Oxford Economics “Knowledge Index” is not really a knowledge index it’s the work of people who have never sought to know what Northern Ireland is good at or bad at in terms of creating intellectual property. In some respects Northern Ireland is a great success story. Both our universities undertake important research work. Often it’s much more important than work undertaken by the latest “app” developer located at the Northern Ireland Science Park. But on the down-side, universities are poor at feeding local businesses with IP, local businesses think much too parochially and local business dependence on the state just isn’t healthy.

But the report fails to provide any real insight into where opportunity lies and where clusters of success exist – that could be built upon. Knowledge based intellectual property depends more on ‘clusters’ of talent growing. That’s much more important than imploring “an entrepreneurial culture”. No amount of “entrepreneurial culture” will help create business success if the resultant products or services don’t result in purchase orders and sales invoices. For Oxford Economics’ information we have small but shining jewel clusters of talent (still) in telecoms software, CRM, semiconductor IP, software security and pharma diagnostics.

Oh, and Oxford Economics, state-funded venture capital isn’t the answer either. In fact it may be part of the problem.

The most successful companies are successful because of vision, commitment and sales – not venture capital. Northern Ireland was most successful when businesses were boot-strapped rather than venture funded. Self-reliance is the route to business success – but only when great ideas can be matched with paying customers.

Yet the Oxford Economics report prefers to issue banalities by way of recommendations. It applauds various public sector initiatives rather than argue for what early stage innovative businesses most need – corporate tax breaks, R&D cost breaks, cheap transport to the main population centres, and lack of government meddling.

The Northern Ireland Science Park can do better than this. The report offers no real solutions and is based on a flawed analysis. But thankfully, our most successful knowledge businesses will probably be too busy to notice.

Debt Laden Economies in Bust Hotel

A golf resort in administration: but it’s rather easy to secure.

When John Treacy – the man behind the Lough Erne Golf Resort – had the idea for his luxury leisure complex in Fermanagh, I’m sure even he had no idea that it might play host to the G8 summit.

Unfortunately for Mr Treacy, however, he no longer owns the complex – it was placed into administration last May. Mr Treacy also lost his other business – a supermarket in Dublin.

There is, of course, a wonderful irony about the G8 Summit taking place in a resort that is being administered by a firm of receivers.  Like the venue, several members of G8 owe rather a lot of money.

Italian public debt is at eye-watering levels. In September, the national debt of Italy stood at 1,995 billion euros (2,536 billion U.S. dollars), 19.5 billion euros higher than in August. UK national debt is also increasing to alarming levels: as of Q1 2012 the national debt amounted to £1,278.2 billion, or 86.8% of total GDP, and it’s still on an upward trajectory. The annual cost of servicing the public debt amounts to around £43bn, or roughly 3% of GDP – over 4 times the size of Northern Ireland’s block grant.

As of this month, debt held by the public in the United States is approximately $11.45 trillion or about 72% of GDP. Intra-governmental holdings stand at $4.83 trillion, giving a combined total public debt of $16.28 trillion. US indebtedness to China alone amounts to well over $1 Trillion.

In fact some suggest the G8 might have a tad more resonance if its membership were to include China – not so much as a member but as Chairman and Banker.

The public attention on Northern Ireland is no bad thing, of course.  Golf is potentially a nice little earner for Northern Ireland – although quite why people engage in golfing activity is a mystery to me. I find it supremely pointless (although I could see the point if some attention seeking organisations paid me millions of pounds to play it.  Although that’s unlikely as I haven’t put in the requisite 10,000 hours of practice to win any golf matches).

I’d imagine that the main reason the resort has been chosen, however, is for security reasons.  It’s on an island in a lake in the middle of nowhere.  Nuff said.

Cameron, the G8 and the NI Conservatives

Arlene Foster - Fermanagh & South Tyrone

Arlene Foster – reflected glory for attracting the G8?  (Photo credit: DUP Photos)

I had a call from two different journalists today asking me if I knew if the Prime Minister had met with – or planned to meet with – the NI Conservatives on his official visit today.  I’m probably the last person to ask, of course, as I’m no longer involved in the Party.

But, inspired by the questions, I thought I’d have a look at NI Conservatives website.  Nothing.  The home page ‘featured story’ is about Trevor Ringland arguing about the ‘revitalisation’ of Ravenhill to host Ireland rugby matches. Hmm.

Nothing on the blog either. Last post is one about marching bands. Again by Trevor Ringland.  Funny little blog it is too. Tad Orangey. Never would have happened in my day.

Radio Ulster, rather than interviewing the local Conservatives about the Cameron G8 announcement, obtained reaction from Arlene Foster, the MLA for Fermanagh and South Tyrone and local Enterprise Minister.

In short, the poor old local Tories are being squeezed out. Although perhaps I’m wrong. Local Conservatives welcome to comment to clarify.

Cuts: We Ain’t Seen Anything Yet

Northern Ireland First Minister Peter Robinson...

How happy will Peter be when his block grant starts to disappear? (Photo credit: Wikipedia)

The First and Deputy First Minister have flown off to China – and the trip will be paid for, of course, by those of us in the private sector who create wealth. Or, rather, who try to create wealth. From the front-cabin air fares to the luxury hotels to the air conditioned Embassy rooms hosting business delegations – Martin and Peter have high expectations to reflect their international status as international statesmen. Such is public “service” these days.

Government in Northern Ireland – from the bifurcated Green/Orange leadership to the “signature projects” to the bizarre youth employment schemes saps the life-blood out of the economy. At no time in history has UK society been so divided – based on who is employed at public expense versus beleaguered private enterprise.  The gap between public sector incomes and private has never been greater.

But it’s about to end. Peter and Martin will be forced to get a grip much sooner than they had expected. The gravy train is coming to a halt.

A report published just yesterday helps to explain why. Published by the Social Market Foundation and the Royal Society of Arts, Fiscal Fallout is based on an analysis of the UK structural deficit – using the Office of Budgetary Responsibility’s own model. The report by Ian Mulheirn, Nida Broughton, Ben Lucas and Henry Kippin argues why the UK economy is in crisis. The government models – and spending plans – assumed growth. There has been no growth. The models also assumed spend levels that were significantly lower than actuality – explained by much greater benefit claims.

The assumption that is made by those on the left is that the cuts are hurting the economy. That’s not really the case. Employment has not slumped. The private side of the social bargain is being kept. The problem continues to be government spending. And the extent to which government spending needs to be curtailed if the UK economy is to be saved from a fiscal abyss, is vast.

The report’s authors argue that if spends on health and overseas aid continue to be ring-fenced, other departmental spends may have to be cut massively.  Cuts of the order of £48bn by 2017 – or 23% of departmental spending.

To date the government has not made clear how such spending savings will be achieved. But one thing is certain – the Northern Ireland block grant will continue to come under pressure – much more so than it has to date. Massively more.

The devolved administrations, of course, remain in blissful ignorance of what’s to come. Indeed not even the Whitehall departments yet fully appreciate the gravity of the situation – as the government has yet to make clear how it will achieve the savings it needs to make. Public sector pay will almost certainly have to be cut – not merely frozen. In terms of benefits, the report authors make clear that a 23% cut to the DWP budget would result in a halving on spend on job creation programmes. Policing and justice is likely to lose a third or so of its budget.

Even under the Barnett formula, Northern Ireland’s block grant will almost certainly be cut – and cut substantially.

One wonders if Peter and Martin will be planning how they might cope in such circumstances. I await with interest to hear their ideas.

 

Lord Patten and Public Cash

Chris Patten smaller

Chris Patten (Photo credit: Wikipedia)

One could almost hazard a guess about the nature of that conversation between Chris Patten and George Entwhistle when Patten, as Chairman of the BBC Trust, had to actually do something to justify is £110,000 part-time salary – fire the DG.

“Now look here, George, it’s pretty clear that this thing isn’t working…and we’re going to have to let you go.”

“But Chris, I don’t want to go – I haven’t really done anything wrong.”

“Yes, I know George.  But, all the same, I and the others on the Trust think it would be best. We’re willing to accept your resignation.”

“But, Chris, if I resign I just get six months salary. I can hardly survive on that and I haven’t really done anything wrong.”

“OK, George, I accept that. You haven’t. So you resign but we’ll stick to our side of the bargain and give you 12 months severance. Deal?”

“OK Chris.  Deal.  And will you stand by my side when I announce my resignation.”

“Sure I will George.”

Chris Patten has a track history for squandering public money in order to arrive at a politically correct fix. He has been supping at the trough of publicly funded bodies for so long that he has lost all reference to a real world where most people have to work for 20 years to earn £450,000 – Entwhistle’s pay-off.

When Patten oversaw the Inquiry into policing in Northern Ireland he recommended a root and branch reorganisation of policing that resulted in 5,500 police officers being made redundant at a cost of around £500m – with redundancy packages being among the most generous ever offered to public servants anywhere in the world.

Over 1,000 of the officers made redundant were promptly re-hired as consultants.

So no-one should be surprised at Lord Patten’s cavalier attitude to squandering public money.

O’Dowd Translated

The Education Minister, John O’Dowd, has issued a statement ahead of the imminent transfer tests. I have added (in blue) my commentary.

Education Minister, John O’Dowd, has expressed his best wishes for all children in year 7 across the north of Ireland.
~ Friday, 9 November 2012

Mr O’Dowd must be one of the only democratically elected leaders who refuses to acknowledge the existence of the state to which he was elected. Mr O’Dowd is an elected representative who received (as he’s fond of telling us often) a mandate from the electorate. However, having been elected to the legislature to represent the people in that legislature, he refuses to recognise the place even though it appears in the mast-head below which his statement is published – check it out for yourself here.  

Speaking ahead of the start of unregulated admissions tests this weekend, the Minister said: “I wish the very best of luck to all children in year 7, whether they are sitting tests or not, as they prepare for transfer to the post-primary phase. This step represents a major life change and can therefore be a nervous time.

Mr O’Dowd chooses, however, to recognise tests that are not formally recognised by his department – even though he chooses not to recognise the political legitimacy of Northern Ireland (a failed statelet according to Sinn Fein). Perhaps he recognises the 11+ tests because he realises that vast numbers of people who gave him his mandate are sending their kids off to be tested so their kids can get into grammar schools – precisely because such schools maintain a strong academic ethos and achieve fabulous results. Perhaps such kids might get a better education than the Minister himself – who seems to find it difficult to concoct a sentence that isn’t peppered with grammatical clangers. Mr O’Dowd’s Wikipedia entry lists a few of his grammar mistakes.  

“The numbers choosing to sit entrance tests are not necessarily an indication of parental support for academic selection – many parents feel pressurised into putting their children through these tests and consider that the grammar schools have given them no choice. However many parents also understand that their children do not have to sit entrance tests to go to a good school. There are numerous excellent non-grammar schools in our system which do not force children to sit entrance tests.

Presumably if such parents “understand” this they would have no reason to have their kids sit the tests. In fact Northern Ireland’s grammar schools produce fabulous results – that’s the reason parents want their kids to attend them. In a competitive world Mr O’Dowd should be congratulating parents for wanting their children to take the challenge of an academically intensive curriculum – not the opposite.  

“The figures quoted in the media for the number of children sitting entrance tests are misleading as a significant number of children will sit both tests and thus the actual number of children sitting entrance tests will certainly be lower.”

So why the need for Mr O’Dowd’s statement?  The Minister is aware that hordes of kids are sitting the tests and that competition for places in the best schools is fierce. His one-size-fits-all approach to education doesn’t suit parents who want choice and want quality education for their children. Mr O’Dowd needs to get real.  The place is called Northern Ireland.  And many Northern Ireland parents want the best for their kids. Mr O’Dowd needs to learn both those lessons.  

I’m on Inside Politics

I’m on Inside Politics this evening from 18.05 – talking about the £200m “economic boost” package announced yesterday by the NI Executive. I adopt (as usual) the token Monetarist in the room position.

Most of the programme is taken up by Alastair McDonnell’s ramblings on the eve of the SDLP Conference.  We live in hope that his conference speech is up there with his bedazzled speech of last year.


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Musings on things political and secular…

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