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Normally, the labor force of a country (or other geographic entity) consists of everyone of working age (typically above a certain age (around 14 to 16) and below retirement (around 65) who are participating workers, that is people actively employed or seeking employment. People not counted include students, retired people, stay-at-home parents, people in prisons or similar institutions, people employed in jobs or professions with unreported income, as well as discouraged workers who cannot find work.
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In the United States, the unemployment rate is estimated by a household survey called the Current Population Survey, conducted monthly by the Federal Bureau of Labor Statistics. The unemployment rate is calculated by dividing the number of unemployed persons by the size of the workforce. An unemployed person is defined as a person not employed but actively seeking work. The size of the workforce is defined as those employed plus those unemployed.
The labor force participation rate is the ratio between the labor force and the overall size of their cohort (national population of the same age range). In the West during the later half of the 20th century, the labor force participation rate increased significantly, largely due to the increasing number of women entering the workplace.
In the United States, there were three significant stages of women’s increased participation in the labor force. During the late 19th century through the 1920s, very few women worked. They were young single women who typically withdrew from labor force at marriage unless family needed two incomes. These women worked primarily in the textile manufacturing industry or as domestic workers. This profession empowered women and allowed them to earn a living wage. At times, they were a financial help to their families. Between 1930 and 1950, women labor force participation has increased primarily due to the increased demand for office workers, women participation in the high school movement, and due to electrification which reduced the time spent on household chores. In the 1950s to the 1970s, most women were secondary earners working mainly as secretaries, teachers, nurses, and librarians (pink-collar jobs). Claudia Goldin and others, specifically point that by the mid-1970s there was a period of revolution of women in the labor force brought on by a source of different factors. Women more accurately planned for their future in the work force, investing in more applicable majors in college that prepared them to enter and compete in the labor market. In the United States, the labor force participation rate rose from approximately 59% in 1948 to 66% in 2005,[1] with participation among women rising from 32% to 59% [2] and participation among men declining from 87% to 73%.[3][4]
A common theory in modern economics claims that the rise of women participating in the US labor force in the late 1960s was due to the introduction of a new contraceptive technology, birth control pills, and the adjustment of age of majority laws. The use of birth control gave women the flexibility of opting to invest and advance their career while maintaining a relationship. By having control over the timing of their fertility, they were not running a risk of thwarting their career choices. However, only 40% of the population actually used the birth control pill. This implies that other factors may have contributed to women choosing to invest in advancing their careers. One factor may be that more and more men delayed the age of marriage, allowing women to marry later in life without worrying about the quality of older men.
Another factor that may have contributed to the trend was the The Equal Pay Act of 1963, which aimed at abolishing wage disparity based on sex. Such legislation diminished sexual discrimination and encouraged more women to enter the labor market by receiving fair remuneration to help raising families and children.
The labor force participation rate can decrease when the rate of growth of the population outweighs that of the employed and unemployed together. The labor force participation rate is a key component in long-term economic growth, almost as important as productivity.
Pop = total population
LF = labor force = U + E
LFpop = labor force population (generally defined as all men and women aged 15-64)
p = participation rate = LF / LFpop
E = number employed
e = rate of employment = E / LF
U = number of unemployed
u = rate of unemployment = U / LF
The labor force participation rate explains how an increase in the unemployment rate can occur simultaneously with an increase in employment. If a large amount of new workers enter the labor force but only a small fraction become employed, then the increase in the number of unemployed workers can outpace the growth in employment.[5]
Formal labor is any sort of employment that is structured and paid in a formal way.[6] Unlike the informal sector of the economy, formal labor within a country contributes to that country’s gross national product.[7] Informal labor is labor that falls short of being a formal arrangement in law or in practice.[8] Informal labor can be paid or unpaid and it is always unstructured and unregulated.[9] Formal employment is more reliable than informal employment. Generally, the former yields higher income and greater benefits and securities for both men and women.[10]
The contribution of informal laborers is immense. Informal labor is expanding globally, most significantly in developing countries.[11] According to a study done by Jacques Charmes, in the year 2000 informal labor made up 57% of non-agricultural employment, 40% of urban employment, and 83% of the new jobs in Latin America. That same year, informal labor made up 78% of non-agricultural employment, 61% of urban employment, and 93% of the new jobs in Africa.[12] Particularly after an economic crisis, laborers tend to shift from the formal sector to the informal sector. This trend was seen after the Asian economic crisis which began in 1997.[13]
Gender is frequently associated with informal labor. Women are employed more often informally than they are formally, and informal labor is an overall larger source of employment for females than it is for males.[10] Women frequent the informal sector of the economy through occupations like home-based workers and street vendors.[13] The Penguin Atlas of Women in the World shows that in the 1990s, 81% of women in Benin were street vendors, 55% in Guatemala, 44% in Mexico, 33% in Kenya, and 14% in India. Overall, 60% of women workers in the developing world are employed in the informal sector.[6] The specific percentages are 84% and 58% for women in Sub-Saharan Africa and Latin America respectively.[6] The percentages for men in both of these areas of the world are lower, amounting to 63% and 48% respectively.[6] In Asia, 65% of women workers and 65% of men workers are employed in the informal sector.[14] Globally, a large percentage of women that are formally employed also work in the informal sector behind the scenes. These women make up the hidden work force.[14]
Formal and informal labor can be divided into the subcategories of agricultural work and non-agricultural work. Martha Chen et al. believe these four categories of labor are closely related to one another.[15] A majority of agricultural work is informal, which the Penguin Atlas for Women in the World defines as unregistered or unstructured.[14] Non-agricultural work can also be informal. According to Martha Chen, informal labor makes up 48% of non-agricultural work in North Africa, 51% in Latin America, 65% in Asia, and 72% in Sub-Saharan Africa.[10]
The agricultural sector of the economy is shrinking while the percentage of women who are employed in the agricultural sector is increasing.[14] According to the Penguin Atlas of Women in the World, women make up 40% of the agricultural labor force in most parts of the world, while in developing countries they make up 67% of the agricultural workforce.[14] Joni Seager shows in her atlas that specific tasks within agricultural work are also gendered. For example, for the production of wheat in a village in Northwest China, men perform the ploughing, the planting, and the spraying, while women perform the weeding, the fertilizing, the processing, and the storage.[14] In terms of food production worldwide, the atlas shows that women produce 80% of the food in Sub-Saharan Africa, 50% in Asia, 45% in the Caribbean, 25% in North Africa and in the Middle East, and 25% in Latin America.[14] A majority of the work women do on the farm is considered housework and is therefore negligible in employment statistics.[14]
Paid and unpaid work are also closely related with formal and informal labor. Some informal work is unpaid, or paid under the table.[15] Unpaid work can be work that is done at home to sustain a family, like child care work, or actual habitual daily labor that is not monetarily rewarded, like working the fields.[14] Unpaid workers have zero earnings, and although their work is valuable, it is hard to estimate its true value. Feminists have worked long and hard to come up with a way of monetizing and bringing value to women’s unpaid labor.[14] The controversial debate still stands. Men and women tend to work in different areas of the economy, regardless of whether their work is paid or unpaid. Women focus on the service sector, while men focus on the industrial sector. When both men and woman do hold the same positions, there is quite often a income gender gap.[9]
Women usually work fewer hours in income generating jobs than men do.[10] Oftentimes it is household work that is unpaid. Worldwide, women and girls are responsible for a great amount of household work.[14] Feminist economists have argued for the inclusion of unpaid work in economic growth statistics. One measurement that feminists have created to give a value to unpaid household work is to compare the hours spend on activities within the home by men and women.[14] The Penguin Atlas of Women in the World shows that in Madagascar, women spend 20 hours per week on housework, while men spend only two.[14] In Mexico, women spend 33 hours and men spend 5 hours.[14] In Mongolia the housework hours amount to 27 and 12 for women and men respectively.[14] In Spain, women spend 26 hours on housework and men spend 4 hours.[14] Only in the Netherlands do men spend 10% more time than women do on activities within the home or for the household.[14] Joni Seager also shows in the atlas that in developing countries, women and girls spend a significant amount of time fetching water for the week, while men do not. For example, in Malawi women spend 6.3 hours per week fetching water, while men spend 43 minutes on this activity. Similarly, girls in Malawi spend 3.3 hours per week fetching water, and boys spend 1.1 hours.[14] Even if women and men both spend time on household work and other unpaid activities, this work is also gendered.[10]
Austrian School | |
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Born | (1963-03-23) March 23, 1963 (age 49) |
Nationality | United States |
Field | Financial Economics |
Alma mater | U.C. Berkeley (B.B.A.), 1987[1] |
Opposed | John Maynard Keynes,[2] Alan Greenspan,[3][4][5] Ben Bernanke,[6][7][8] Paul Krugman,[9] Christopher Dodd,[10] Barack Obama,[11] |
Influences | Irwin Schiff, Ludwig von Mises, F.A. Hayek, Murray Rothbard |
Peter David Schiff (pronounced /ˈʃɪf/; born March 23, 1963) is an American businessman, investment broker, author and financial commentator. Schiff is CEO and chief global strategist[1] of Euro Pacific Capital Inc., a broker-dealer based in Westport, Connecticut[12] and CEO of Euro Pacific Precious Metals, LLC, a gold and silver dealer based in New York City.[13]
Schiff frequently appears as a guest on financial television and is often quoted in major financial publications. He is host of The Peter Schiff Show, a radio show broadcast on terrestrial and internet radio. He is a frequent guest on internet radio[14][15][16] as well as the host of the former podcast Wall Street Unspun.[14][17] In 2010 Schiff ran as a candidate in the Republican primary for the United States Senate seat from Connecticut.[18]
Schiff is known for his bearish views on the dollar and dollar denominated assets, while bullish on investment in tangible assets as well as foreign stocks and currencies.
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Peter Schiff was born and raised in New Haven, Connecticut. His father, Irwin Schiff, is a prominent figure in the U.S. tax protester movement, currently serving a 13-year sentence for tax evasion.[19] Peter Schiff attended Beverly Hills High School in California,[20] and graduated from the University of California, Berkeley in 1987 with a Bachelor's degree in finance and accounting.[1]
Schiff began his career as a financial consultant at a Shearson Lehman Brothers brokerage.[1] In 1996 Schiff and a partner acquired a small brokerage firm that had been founded in 1980, reincorporated it in California and renamed it Euro Pacific Capital.[21][22] The company today has more than 15,000 clients[citation needed] and six offices nationwide, with its headquarters in Westport, Connecticut.[12][21][23]
According to a 2005 article in The Advocate of Stamford, Connecticut Schiff relocated the firm to Darien, Connecticut to find brokers "who think like him". The New York Metropolitan Area, Schiff says, has the biggest concentration of brokers in the country, making it easier to recruit employees.[24] The company has offices in Newport Beach, California as well as in Scottsdale, Arizona, Palm Beach, Florida, Los Angeles and New York City. Euro Pacific Capital also holds the exclusive rights to broker some Perth Mint gold products in the United States.[25]
Peter Schiff voices strong support for the Austrian School of economic thought, first introduced to him by his father.[26][27][28][29]
In his 2007 book Crash Proof, Schiff wrote that United States economic policies were fundamentally unsound, and predicted that the United States dollar would lose much of its value.[3] Schiff believed that the imbalance between the amount of goods the U.S. consumed and what it produced would eventually lead to problems for the U.S. economy.[30][31] As a remedy Schiff favored increased personal savings and production which he said would stimulate economic growth.[32] Schiff cited the U.S.'s low personal savings rate as one of the causes of its transformation from the world's largest creditor nation in the 1970s to the largest debtor nation in the year 2000.[33] Schiff attributed the low savings rate to higher inflation and the artificially low interest rates set by the Federal Reserve.[34]
In a May 2002 interview with Southland Today, Schiff predicted that the economic downturn triggered by the bursting of the dot-com stock market bubble, an event that he had also forecast well in advance, would lead to a bear market likely to last "another 5 to 10 years."[35][36] Later that year, following a 30% decline in the Dow Jones, Schiff reversed his call, and became bullish on U.S. stocks in nominal terms. However, he remained bearish in gold terms. In November 2002, as Schiff predicted, US stock indexes began a nominal bull market uptrend that held steady for five years,[37] until reversing course in 2008, when they began a decline to less than half of their peak 2008 values,[38] followed in 2009 by the Dow climbing 61% from its low point over the following year.[39] However, priced in gold, U.S. stocks remained in a bear market the entire time. In May of 2002, the date of the Southland Today interview,[40] the Dow Jones was worth over 34 ounces of gold. By 2011 the Dow fell below 6 ounces of gold, a nine-year decline of over 80%, in line with Schiff’s 2002 forecast.[41]
In an August 2006 interview he said: "The United States economy is like the Titanic and I am here with the lifeboat trying to get people to leave the ship... I see a real financial crisis coming for the United States."[42] On December 31, 2006 in debate on Fox News, Schiff forecast that "what's going to happen in 2007" is that "real estate prices are going to come crashing back down to Earth".[42]
As part of these exchanges on Fox News and his repeated appearances on financial news network CNBC, Schiff had mentioned factors such as speculators and "the absence of lending standards" which are now seen by many[43][44] to indeed be contributing factors to the housing crisis which began in 2007. On December 13, 2007 in a Bloomberg interview on the show Open Exchange, Schiff further added that he felt that the crisis would extend to the credit card lending industry.[45] Following this observation, it was soon reported on December 23, 2007 by the Associated Press that "The value of credit card accounts at least 30 days late jumped 26 percent to $17.3 billion in October from a year earlier at 17 large credit card trusts examined by the AP... At the same time, defaults -- when lenders essentially give up hope of ever being repaid and write off the debt -- rose 18 percent to almost $961 million in October, according to filings made by the trusts with the Securities and Exchange Commission."[46]
Since 2007, Schiff has stated many times that if the government doesn't change course there will be hyperinflation in the US.[3] Schiff is one of a minority of economists credited with accurately predicting the financial crisis of 2007–2010 while "nearly all [macroeconomists] failed to foresee the recession despite plenty of warning signs".[47][48] In his book Crash Proof, he described several aspects of the U.S. economy that would lead to a recession.[3]
A YouTube video entitled "Peter Schiff was right" became popular in late 2008 and 2009.[49][50] The video consists of a compilation of clips of his many appearances on various financial news programs from networks including CNBC, Fox News, MSNBC and Bloomberg, most of which took place from 2005 to 2007. In the video segments Schiff explains the fundamental problems he saw with the United States economy at that time. Schiff's warnings of a coming economic collapse earned him the moniker "Dr. Doom."[22][51][52]
Despite predictions regarding the housing bubble and automotive industry difficulties coming to fruition, as early as 2009 Schiff was receiving criticism due to the performance of some of his client's accounts in 2008, as well as controversies over the predictions themselves. In January 2009, economic blogger and investment adviser Michael Shedlock reported, "I have talked with many who claim they have invested with Schiff and are down anywhere from 40% to 70% in 2008."[53] Later that week an article appeared in the Wall Street Journal reporting that Schiff's broker-dealer firm, Euro Pacific Capital Inc., "advised its clients to bet that the dollar would weaken significantly and that foreign stocks would outpace their U.S. peers" and that instead, the dollar advanced against most currencies, "magnifying the losses from foreign stocks Mr. Schiff steered his investors into."[54]
The Director of Communications at Schiff's investment firm responded to the original Shedlock piece by saying, "While it is true, that our accounts have suffered badly in 2008, a fact that we have never disputed or ran from, [Shedlock's] estimates for the size of our typical client losses are exaggerated and unfair."[55][56] Schiff personally responded to Shedlock's criticism by saying, "to examine the effectiveness of my investment strategy immediately following a major correction by looking only at those accounts who adopted the strategy at the previous peak is unfair and distortive" and called Shedlock's blog entry "nothing more than an overt advertisement (and a highly deceptive one at that) to use my popularity to advance his career," adding that losses were felt mostly by recent clients and not by others.[57]
Schiff responded similarly to criticisms made by Wade Slome of Sidoxia Capital Management, LLC. in a September 2009 blog entry entitled, "The Emperor Schiff Has No Clothes."[36] Schiff stated not only were the losses suffered by his clients in 2008 highly exaggerated, but also that most of those losses have already been recouped, stating that many who were down then are now up, and most long-term clients were never down at all, but merely temporarily lost some of the profits they had earned over the years.[36]
The January 2009 Wall Street Journal article discussed the value of Schiff's predictions, and stated how deficiencies "made mincemeat of investors who took his advice in 2008."[54] In an interview the following week Schiff likened himself to billionaire investor Warren Buffett, saying they were both "buy and hold" long-term investors. Contrasting his negative press he compared claims about accounts managed under Schiff's firm to the stock market value of Buffett's company, saying: "His approach is you buy stocks and you never sell them—you hope to never sell them—and Berkshire Hathaway is down 40% in the last thirteen months; I don't see the Wall Street Journal saying 'Warren Buffett made mincemeat out of his clients.'"[58] The Wall Street Journal also published a letter written by Schiff in response to his critics saying: "My central investing premise, a weakening dollar and safety in gold, commodities and foreign stocks, didn't materialize in 2008. But all the ingredients were (and remain) present for those movements to occur. Over the past year, market reactions that I didn't foresee—massive global deleveraging, a knee-jerk 'flight to quality' into U.S. Treasuries and a sharp counter trend rally in the U.S. dollar—have kept the scenario from playing out."[59]
In a November 2009 videoblog, Schiff said that five stocks he picked for Fortune Magazine in January 2009 had gained a total of 360%.[60][61]
In a March 2009 speech Schiff said that it would be impossible for the U.S. debt to China to be repaid unless the U.S. dollar's value is substantially diluted through inflation. In September 2009 Schiff said that "I would not be surprised to see [gold] at $5,000 over the next several years" and that the 2009 stock market rally was a "bear market rally".[62]
According to economist Paul Krugman, Schiff's Austrian approach to economics led him to incorrectly predict hyperinflation in the United States.[63]
Schiff was an economic adviser to Ron Paul's 2008 presidential campaign. In support of Paul's economic revitalization plan, he said: "We need a plan that stimulates savings and production, not more of the reckless borrowing and consumption that got us into this mess in the first place. Ron Paul's plan is the only one that amounts to a step in the right direction. If you want meaningful change—for the better that is—Ron Paul is the only candidate capable of delivering it."[64]
In 2008, Schiff also endorsed Murray Sabrin for the U.S. Senate seat in New Jersey.[65]
In an interview in February 2009, Schiff's position was summarized as a nonpartisan critique of American policymakers, comparing former presidents George W. Bush to Herbert Hoover and President Barack Obama to former president Franklin D. Roosevelt, with neither of the more recent incumbents comparing favorably to the earlier ones.[66]
Schiff supports the reduction of government economic regulation, and is concerned that President Obama's administration may increase such regulation.[67] Schiff says that the economic crisis of the late-2000s provides an opportunity to transition from borrowing and spending, to saving and producing. He is critical of the U.S. government's efforts to "ease the pain" with economic stimulus packages and bailouts. According to Schiff, the U.S. government's approach of replacing "legitimate savings with a printing press" could result in hyperinflation.[68]
In December 2008, Connecticut citizens created a website encouraging Schiff to campaign against the incumbent Senator Christopher Dodd.[69][70] Approximately 5,000 people made campaign contributions using the web site.[69] On February 21, 2009, a moneybomb raised over $20,000 for Schiff's campaign.[71] In a May 2009 video blog, Schiff said that he was seriously considering a run for the senate and when questioned by a Washington Post reporter, he said the chance of him entering politics was "better than 50-50".[72] In June 2009 Schiff commissioned a poll of likely voters which indicated that he trailed Dodd in popularity by four percentage points.[73] On July 9, 2009, Schiff launched an exploratory committee and an official campaign website.[69] He began accepting donations in an attempt to see if "people who really believe in freedom, liberty, sound money and the constitution are prepared to support that with an actual political contribution or to volunteer their services and work on this campaign." He received over 10,000 donations and many e-mails from around the world.[69]
After giving some hints on The Daily Show[74] Schiff officially announced his candidacy for the Republican nomination on September 17, 2009, during the MSNBC Morning Joe show.[18][75][76] By October 2009 Schiff had received more than 10,000 telephone calls and letters[69] and raised over $1,960,000 (USD) in campaign contributions.
At the May 2010 Republican convention, Linda McMahon received the most delegate votes but not enough to prevent an August primary election. U.S. Rep. Rob Simmons received more than the required 15 percent of the total votes necessary to force the primary. Schiff then collected the signatures necessary to earn a position on the August 2010 GOP primary ballot, submitting at least 400 signatures over the state requirement.
In July 2010, Schiff's campaign received endorsements from Steve Forbes and Ron Paul.[77][78]
In the Republican primary, held on August 10, 2010, Schiff lost the nomination to Linda McMahon.[79] McMahon collected 49% of the vote, with Simmons on 28% and Schiff 23%.[80]
Ultimately, the election was won by the Democratic Party primary winner, Richard Blumenthal.[81]
From 2005 to 2010 Schiff hosted a weekly podcast named Wall Street Unspun. In October 2010 Schiff began hosting a new radio show named The Peter Schiff Show. The show is broadcast weekdays from 10am-noon ET on internet and terrestrial radio. The show has featured guests such as Ron Paul, Rand Paul, Niall Ferguson, Dennis Kucinich, Rick Santelli, and others.[82]
Peter Schiff is the author of six books published by John Wiley & Sons. His book, Crash Proof 2.0, appeared on both the New York Times and Wall Street Journal bestseller lists.
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Persondata | |
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Name | Schiff, Peter |
Alternative names | |
Short description | |
Date of birth | 1963-03-23 |
Place of birth | |
Date of death | |
Place of death |
Yu Dafu | |
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Born | (1896-12-07)December 7, 1896 Fuyang, Zhejiang, China |
Died | September 17, 1945(1945-09-17) (aged 48) |
Occupation | Short Story writer and Poet |
Yu Dafu (simplified Chinese: 郁达夫; traditional Chinese: 郁達夫; pinyin: Yù Dáfū; Wade–Giles: Yu Ta-fu) (December 7, 1896—September 17, 1945). Born in Fuyang, Hangzhou, Zhejiang, was a modern Chinese short story writer and poet.
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Yu Dafu's father died when he was three, leaving the family poverty-stricken and destitute. He received a number of scholarships through the Chinese government and went on to receive a traditional Chinese education in Hangzhou. Chronologically he studied in Jiangxing-Fu Middle School (before he came to Hangzhou), Hangzhou-Fu Middle School, Yuying Academy[1] (育英学堂, formerly of Zhejiang University).
In 1912, he entered Hangchow University (later its major part merged into Zhejiang University) preparatory through examination. He was there only for a short period before he was expelled for participation in a student strike.[2]
He then moved to Japan, where he studied economics at the Tokyo Imperial University between 1913 and 1922, where he met other Chinese intellectuals (namely, Guo Moruo, Zhang Ziping and Tian Han). Together, in 1921 they founded the Chuangzao she 創造社 ("Creation Society"), which promoted vernacular and modern literature. One of his earlier works Chenlun 沉淪, also his most famous, published in Japan in 1921. The work had gained immense popularity in China, shocking the world of Chinese literature with its frank dealing with sex, as well as grievances directed at the incompetence of Chinese government at the time.
In 1922, he returned to China as a literary celebrity and worked as the editor of Creation Quarterly, editing journals and writing short stories. In 1923, after an attack of tuberculosis, Yu Dafu directed his attention to the welfare of the masses.
In 1927, he worked as an editor of the Hongshui literary magazine. He later came in conflict with the Communist Party of China and fled back to Japan.
After the start of the Second Sino-Japanese war, he returned to China and worked as a writer of anti-Japanese propaganda in Hangzhou, and later in Zhejiang. From 1938 to 1942, he worked as a literary editor for the newspaper Sin Chew Jit Poh in Singapore.
In 1942 when the Imperial Japanese Army invaded Singapore, he was forced to flee to Sumatra. Known under a different identity, he settled there among other overseas Chinese and began a brewery business with the help of the locals. Later he was forced to help the Japanese military police as an interpreter when it was discovered that he was one of the few "locals" in the area who could speak Japanese.
In 1945, he was arrested by the Kempeitai when his true identity was finally discovered. It is believed that he was executed by the Japanese shortly after the surrender of Japan.
His most popular work, breaking all Chinese sales records, was Jih-chi chiu-chung "Nine Diaries", which detailed his affair with the writer Wang Ying-hsin. The most critically acclaimed work is Kuo-ch'u or "The Past", written in 1927.[citation needed]
Persondata | |
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Name | Yu, Dafu |
Alternative names | |
Short description | Chinese writer |
Date of birth | 1896 |
Place of birth | Fuyang, Zhejiang, China |
Date of death | 1945 |
Place of death |