Tree of Knowledge

Gary Langer, (US) ABC News polling guru has interesting things to say about Presidential Nomination Convention polling bounces:

Convention bounces became apparent in 1968 (election polling was too infrequent for reliable conclusions before then), but the focus owes much to Bill Clinton and the Mother of All Bounces: He soared from a dead heat against incumbent George Bush before the 1992 Democratic convention to nearly a 30-point lead after it, and never trailed for the remainder of the race.

…..

The absence of any bounce can be a danger sign. Neither Hubert Humphrey nor George McGovern took significant bounces out of their nominating conventions in 1968 and 1972, both en route to their losses to Richard Nixon.

While the averages by the candidate’s political party are similar, more of the action has been among Democratic candidates – a standard deviation of 10 in their bounces (8 without Clinton’s in 1992), compared with 4 in the Republicans’. …

The varying size and durability of convention bounces suggest that they’re not founded simply on the quantity of that week’s news coverage, but on more substantive evaluations of the content the parties and their candidates present. A focusing of the public’s attention may inspire the bounce, but a more deliberative judgment determines its size, staying power and ultimate impact.

Interesting that conventions seem to play a much greater role in galvanising Democratic support than they do for Republicans – are right leaning voters just more rusted on than those of the left?

*Apologies to Snoop

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