My tip: Obama to win 303-235, carrying Ohio, Virginia, New Hampshire, Pennsylvania, Iowa, Colorado and Nevada.

A lot has happened since Galaxy’s last federal poll in mid-June – enough on this evidence to have lifted Labor three points, while still leaving them well short of the two-party parity recorded by Newspoll. Tony Abbott also cops the troubling finding that even Coalition voters now prefer Malcolm Turnbull.

After powering to an historic victory in the electorate of Melbourne at the 2010 election, Greens MP Adam Bandt is likely to find the going a lot tougher next time around.

Newspoll has maintained its jumpy record of late, the latest result reverting back to 50-50 after blowing out to 54-46 to the Coalition in the last poll three weeks ago. The two 50-50 results Newspoll has recorded have been the best results Labor has received in phone polls since early last year.

Live coverage of the by-election to fill Clover Moore’s vacancy in the state seat of Sydney. Moore-backed independent Alex Greenwich takes the field against Shayne Mallard of the Liberals and Chris Harris of the Greens, Labor having piked.

Kate Ellis’s electorate of Adelaide is a one-time Labor stronghold which has generally been marginal since the late 1980s, although she has enjoyed a handy buffer in the wake of Labor’s strong statewide performances in 2007 and 2010.

Wherein NSW Labor trails on the two-party vote in Newspoll by less than 20 points for the first time since March-April 2010.

It was well understood that Ted Baillieu’s government was sitting a lot less pretty than conservative counterparts in other states. Nonetheless, the results of the latest bi-monthly Newspoll will come as a shock to it.

With a fortnight to go, Barack Obama looks in big trouble on national polling averages, but retains breathing space on electoral college projections. The vagaries of polling methodologies might have something to do with this.

The third New South Wales state by-election since the Coalition landslide of March 2011 will be held in the seat of Sydney on Saturday, thanks to new laws which required Clover Moore to choose between her state seat and the lord mayoralty.