This is an archive of the daily commentary on US Presidential election polling for the period 5 to 20 October. For up to date commentary please go to this post.
Commentary
11:10 AM – 20 October
Second Debate Bounce Hits
Three of the four daily tracking polls we are following shifted by 1-2 points to Obama overnight nearly erasing Governor Romney’s lead in the national vote. The Republican candidate only has a lead of 0.3% over President Obama according to an average of the four daily national tracking polls. If the second debate was to influence the polls this shift in the tracking polls is it.
The topline figures for each of the tracking polls are below, (previous day’s results in brackets)
Rasmussen: 48-48 Tie (49-47 Romney)
Gallup: 51-45 Romney (52-45 Romney)
Ipsos-Reuters: 46-43 Obama (47-44 Obama)
TIPP: 47-45 Obama (46-46 Tie)
However, the swing state polls that were released overnight were a mixed bag in terms of shifting the race. According to our 7 day poll average New Hampshire changed status from an Obama lead to a tie. While a Fox News poll pegging Romney ahead 48-45 in Florida tipped that state back into the Romney column. The EV tally now stands at 286-235 Obama with the combined 17 electoral votes of Virginia and New Hampshire tied.
A Fox News poll was also released for Ohio which pegged Obama ahead 48-45, confirming the 3 point lead in the 7 day poll average. The Fox News polls of Ohio and Florida were released after our initial 9 am update of the swing state table and have been included above.
Given the narrowing of Romney’s national lead to nearly nothing and Obama’s continuing Electoral College advantage, Obama has his nose in front, for now.
11:45 AM – 19 October
The National polls turn right ….. Swing State polls turn left
Another day in the US presidential election, another day where the state and national polls differ. The big news in the national polls was the 52-45 Romney lead posted by Gallup in its daily tracking poll which is the largest Romney national poll lead to date. But it stands alone in the national polls overall in offering a Romney lead outside the MoE.
Nevertheless a 1 point net shift to Romney is the order of the day in most other daily reporting national tracking polls we are following. Today’s figures for each individual poll are (yesterday’s poll result in brackets):
Rasmussen: 49-47 Romney (48-47 Romney)
Gallup: 52-45 Romney (51-45 Romney)
Ipsos-Reuters: 47-44 Obama (47-44 Obama)
TIPP: 46-46 Tie (47-45 Obama)
Three of the four daily national tracking polls have shifted to Romney boosting his average lead to 1.5% up from 0.5% yesterday.
However the swing state polls told a different story. Due to polls falling out of our average to due to age and new polls released today Romney has fallen from the lead in the 7 day poll average in all swing states except for North Carolina. This has shifted the EV tally to 319-206 Obama, with Virginia and its 13 electoral votes tied. The states which flipped from Romney to Obama according to this are Florida and New Hampshire. The non-swing states Obama carried in 2008 and the swing states he lead by 3% or more in the above table have a combined 277 EVs, enough for victory.
The best polls for Obama were the Marist polls commissioned by NBC and the Wall Street Journal released after the initial morning update of our swing state table. These polls of Iowa and Wisconsin had significantly larger leads for Obama than previous polls in these states at 51-43 and 51-45 respectively. If Romney can win these states then Romney can increase his chances of winning without carrying Ohio.
Democratic leaning pollster PPP released polls of Colorado and Virginia today both putting Obama in front (50-47 In Colorado & 49-48 in Virginia) combined with Romney favourable polls falling out of the average has increased Obama’s slender lead in the Colorado and tied the contest in Virginia according to our 7 day poll average. That being said these states are true toss-ups at the moment given that 2 of the three polls in the Colorado poll average are from Democratic leaning pollsters and Virginia is a tie.
The best news for Romney in the swing state polls was form North Carolina with a 52-46 lead pegged by Republican leaning Rasmussen which confirms Romney’s lead in that state.
Overall given the conflicting evidence between the national and state polls there is no presumptive leader in this election.
3:00 PM – 18 October
Ipsos-Reuters finally reported its daily tracking poll results which held a steady 3 point lead for President Obama although both candidates gained 1 point in their vote at 47-44 Obama from 46-43 yesterday. The overall effect on the daily tracking poll average has been no change and is steady at a 0.5% lead for Governor Romney, Gallup’s 6 point advantage was counter weighed by the slim 1 point Romney advantage marked by Rasmussen and the 3 point and 1 point leads for Obama marked by Ipsos-Reuters and TIPP respectively. The raw national tracking poll figures are:
Gallup: Romney 51-45 (yesterday Romney 50-46)
Rasmussen: Romney 49-48 (yesterday Romney 49-47)
Ipsos-Reuters: Obama 47-44 (yesterday Obama 46-43)
TIPP: Obama 47-45 (yesterday Obama 46-45)
In terms of late release swing state polls, there was a suite of three released by the Democratic leaning organisation the New America Foundation all of which had Obama ahead. One of these polls was in Colorado which pegged Obama ahead in that state 47-44. The addition of this poll has broken the tie in Colorado in our 7 day poll average and put it tentatively in the Obama column. The EV tally now stands at 286-252 Obama.
8:30 AM – 18 October
Waiting for impact
For those expecting polling impact from the second debate they will need to wait a few more days for a post- second debate samples to filter through. In terms of the overnight polling, there was not much swing state polling. No state has changed sides in our 7 day polling average.
As for the national tracking polling we have not heard from Ipsos-Reuters yet today, so we will wait to hear from them before filling in the overall national average cell. The big news was a 51-45 Romney lead with likely voters in the Gallup tracking poll. This is clearly the largest Romney lead of any national poll, tracking or otherwise. The next best recent national polls for Romney were 4 point leads for Romney in the Pew poll last week and the Daily Kos poll yesterday. By definition the Gallup poll is an outlier, that being said if Gallup likely voter screen is more effective than the other pollsters at picking up likely voters then Gallup may be the canary in the coal mine.
A You Gov poll of 25 states was released yesterday. We have decided against putting this poll into the poll averages as it was a re-contact of respondents who were interviewed in September. Therefore voters who would otherwise have become more interested in the race, but would have declined to respond to a poll in September would have been missed out. The poll showed a relatively better performance for Obama which again indicated that the shift in the polls since the first debate was due to increased Republican enthusiasm, something that probably will not recede after the second debate.
8:30 AM – 17 October
It is still too close to call
Today the daily national tracking polls have deviated every which way to the point that I needed a nip of brandy in my morning coffee.
Gallup deviated sharply to Romney pegging the Republican candidate ahead 50-46 up from 49-47 the day before. On the other hand Ipsos-Reuters has Obama ahead 46-43 up from 47-45 yesterday. The Tipp poll moved in Obama’s direction by 1 point to a 47-46 lead from a 46-46 tie and Rasmussen held steady at 49-47 Romney.
The divergence between the polls is averaged out to a small increase in the Romney lead to 0.5%.
In terms of the swing state polls there were only a four in the pre-debate lull. On the basis of our 7 day average Virginia changed sides as two favourable polls for Obama fell out of the average. Iowa went back into Obama’s column after a poll from Republican leaning pollster We Ask America put Obama up 49-46 in the Hawkeye state. This has narrowed the EV count to 277-252 Obama with 9 EVs in the tied state of Colorado.
In short, this race is still too close to call. We now await the second presidential debate which will commence at 12 pm Sydney time. Australian viewers can see the debate on:
- ABC News 24
- SBS
- Foxtel (Sky News, CNN, Fox News, Al Jazerra, BBC).
Also the debate will be live streamed on You Tube.
After the debate we will be post the instapolls from CNN and CBS as they come to hand.
8:40 AM – 16 October
Obama creeps back nationally, swing state picture mixed
Overnight the national tracking polls moved in direction of President Obama. Rasmussen’s Romney lead shrunk from 49-47 to 49-48. Ipsos Reuters’ Obama lead grew from 46-45 to 47-45, while Gallup held steady. We are also following a fourth tracking poll the IBD-TIPP poll from today. The TIPP poll is a 6 day rolling sample of about 900 likely voters. Today it printed a 47-47 tie. An average of the 4 polls has pegged Romney’s national lead to 0.3% down from 1%.
In terms of the swing states, there was movement in towards Obama in the swing states where Romney holds a lead, North Carolina, Florida and Colorado, the latter now a tie. Obama’s lead in Virginia has faded to almost nothing, while Obama’s Ohio lead has increased. If anything the swing state picture has become more muddled.
Iowa is also a tie, however this is based on one poll by Republican leaning pollster ARG, so this should be taken with a grain of salt.
In the US psephosphere the current polls are considered a moot point ahead of the second presidential debate to occur tomorrow which could change the polls again. However the debate will probably not change the race unless there is meltdown by Romney or Obama loses conclusively again. The first debate awoke Republican voters enthusiasm. Unless Romney implodes in the debate it’s unlikely that will be reversed in the next debate.
1:35 PM – 15 October
Ipsos-Reuters reported today and indicated a 46-45 Obama lead, which is a flip of their previous report (2 days ago) of a 46-45 Romney lead. This has reduced Romney’s lead in the daily national tracking poll average to 1 point.
Democratic leaning pollster PPP released polls for North Carolina (49-47 Romney) and Florida (49-48 Romney) which confirmed the current position of those states on the Romney side of the ledger.
8:35 AM – 15 October
Not much on the polling front last night. Rasmsussen’s daily tracker ticked up to 49-47 Romney, while Gallup held steady at the same figure. One again Ipsos-Reuters is no where to be found, we will leave the national tracking poll average cell blank until later in the day in case of a late release of the Ipsos-Reuters poll.
In terms of state polling there is only one poll to update the above table, Democratic leaning pollster PPP release an Ohio poll yesterday which put Obama ahead 51-46. We are expecting the same outfit to release polls for Florida and North Carolina later today, at such time there will be a further update.
2:50 PM – 14 October
No sign of a Ipsos-Reuters update today so we will have to use yesterday’s poll.
Consequently there has been no change in the daily tracking poll average.
10:10 AM – 14 October
All Quiet On The Polling Front
It was a slow night on the polling front. Only 2 of the 3 national tracking polls we follow have reported results so far and there was only one state poll of any significance and it wasn’t in a state we are following .
National polls
Only Gallup and Rasmussen have reported their daily findings and their small Romney leads of 2 points and 1 point respectively have held steady for today. We are yet to hear from Ipsos-Reuters so we have left the national tracking average blank for now. We will update when the Ipsos-Reuters result comes to hand.
Pennsylvania
We have added Pennsylvania to our swing states. While the Obama lead in that state shrunk as it did else where, the Obama lead is holding in the low to mid single digits. In any event its worth keeping an eye on.
New Hampshire Flips
According to our 7 day poll average New Hampshire has switched to a Romney lead. This due to a favourable poll for Obama falling out of the average due to age rather than any new polling today. The driver of the Romney lead was an ARG poll released yesterday which pegged Romney ahead 50-46. The EV tally for Obama recedes to 290 for now.
Obama ahead in Arizona?
The only state poll of note was a Rocky Mountain poll of Arizona which had Obama ahead 44-42 amongst likely voters but with a small sample. it’s the first poll we have seen that has Obama ahead in a state where all previous polling has put Romney ahead. Here is the CNN report on the poll. It is best to treat this poll as an outlier for now and we will not put Arizona in the swing states unless further evidence comes to hand. We shall still keep Arizona’s 11 electoral votes as Romney’s for now and they are included in his current tally of 248 EVs.
Early Voting & Absentee Voting
Pre-poll and postal voting has been open for a few weeks in many states. For the Australian readers of this website a short explanation is required.
In the US voters who vote on election day must vote at an assigned precinct (polling booth) close to their voter registration address. This is to ensure that voters get the right ballot (or touch screen) for all the offices they are voting for from president to local dog-catcher. Voters who can’t (or do not want to) visit their precinct on election day and still want to vote must make arrangements prior to election day.
In the US, early voting is the term for voting in person at local election officials’ offices or other designated polling booths prior to election day. In Australia we know this as pre-poll voting.
In the US, absentee voting is the term for postal voting. In the US ballots are usually mailed out (in some states they can be collected at pre-designated locations) and the voter completes the ballot and documentation and returns it all by mail. In the US the term absentee means the voter is absent from a polling booth, while in Australia it means the voter is absent from their electorate.
In Australia the voter usually has to declare that they cannot visit a polling booth on election day to access pre-poll and postal voting. In many US states no such declaration is required to use such voting. In two states, Oregon and Washington state, elections are conducted solely by mail. A useful overview of each state laws in relation to voting before election day can be found here at the National Conference of State Legislatures website.
It is also common to refer to the whole process as early voting and distinguish between pre-poll and postal voting as “in person” (pre-poll) and absentee (postal).
There has been a growing trend to use early and absentee voting by voters in the US. In Australia at the last federal election, just under 10% of all votes cast were done by pre-poll and postal voting. In the 2008 US election the comparable figure was 30.6%.
Therefore it is important to keep tabs on early voting and the best place to so is at Dr. Michael P. McDonald’s US election project website where he keeps tabs on US early and absentee voting statistics. Dr McDonald also provide an analysis of the early voting and the implications for the results at this Huffington Post article.
8:30AM – 13 October
Romney creeps ahead nationally, Swing state picture is mixed.
Overnight polling provided a mixed picture of the presidential race. In terms of national tracking polls the Romney lead increased slightly, but again was a split decision in terms of the overall movement. Rasmussen and Gallup shifted slightly to Romney, while Ipsos-Reuters shifted to Obama. Here is a list of the tracking polls we are following with the previous day’s result in brackets:
Rasmussen: 48-47 Romney (48-47 Obama)
Gallup: 49-47 Romney (48-47 Romney)
Ipsos-Reuters: 46-45 Romney (47-44 Romney)
In terms of swing state 7 day poll averages, there were shifts to Romney in New Hampshire, Florida and Colorado, which put the latter in the Romney column. Conversely there were shifts to Obama in Virginia, Ohio and Michigan.
Romney has slowly been building his national tracking poll lead since 9 October when Gallup provided its first likely voter poll and if there is a trend in the last few days this is it. The only counter to this is the swing-state polling which has Obama holding onto small leads in Ohio and Virginia to maintain a lead in the electoral college according to our 7 day poll average.
4:05 PM – 12 October
Just a quick update of the poll average table with the remainder of the polls released over the course of the day. The notable poll of the group was a 51-44 Romney lead in Florida as measured by Mason-Dixon. This puts Florida back into the Romney column in our 7 day poll average.
3:35 PM – 12 October
Vice-Presidential Debate Snap Polls
Two snap polls after the VP debate gave mixed results
CNN: Ryan 48, Biden 44 (381 Registered Voters) Source
CBS: Biden 50, Ryan 31, Tie 19 (500 Uncommitted Voters) Source
9:45 AM – 12 October
Obama rallies in the swing states
Overnight there was a raft of polls in the swing states with new polls in 7 of the 10 swing states in the above table. Some polls were quite favorable to Obama such as a Marist poll which had Obama up 51-45 in Ohio and a Quinnipac poll which had Obama up 51-46 in Virginia, however they were the exception rather than the rule with most polls keeping the lead mostly within the margin of error.
The overall shift in the swing states according to our 7 day poll average moved Virginia to an Obama lead and Florida and Colorado to ties. This expanded Obama’s EV total to 294.
In terms of the national tracking polls we are following the average expanded to a 1% Romney lead. In terms of the individual tracking polls the results are as follows (previous day in brackets):
Rasmussen: 48-47 Obama (48-47 Romney)
Gallup: 48-47 Romney (48-48 tie)
Ipsos-Reuters: 47-44 Romney ( 45-44 Romney)
Vice Presidential Debate
There is a debate of the Vice Presidential Candidates today which commences at 12 PM Sydney time. You can find the You Tube streaming here: http://www.youtube.com/user/ABCNews?feature=watch
8:25 AM – 11 October
Romney bounce holds
The national tracking polls we are monitoring each had their own slight movements; Gallup closed up to 47-47 all, Rasmussen posted a 48-47 Romney lead and Ipsos Reuters posted a 45-44 Romney lead. This all averaged out to no change on the average of the national tracking polls we are following which holds a small Romney lead of 0.7 percentage points.
As for the state polls, the best news for Romney was a Rasmussen poll of New Hampshire that had a 48-48 tie. Obama’s best news was a JZ Analytics-Newsmax poll which had him 46-42 ahead in Ohio and a UNF Poll which posted a 49-45 Obama lead in Florida. In terms of state polls it was marginally a better day for Obama, however the EV tally holds steady for today.
Vice Presidential Debate
There is a debate of the Vice Presidential Candidates today tomorrow (EDIT: Oops) which commences at 12 PM Sydney time.
9:40 AM – 10 October
Another big night of polling has firmed the shift in the race towards Governor Romney to the point that he his slightly ahead in race that is still too close to call.
The big polling news last night was the Gallup tracking poll releasing its first poll of Likely Voters which posted a 49-47 Romney lead, a dramatic shift from the 50-45 Obama lead in registered voters in the previous day (which itself narrowed to 49-46 Obama today). We shall use the likely voters figure from Gallup from now on. In other tracking polls, Rasmussen held a 48-48 tie again today and Ipsos-Reuters also closed to a 45-45 tie. This all combines to give Romney a lead in the national tracking poll average for -0.7 percentage points.
As a side note that tracking poll results are being confirmed by the other less frequent national polls showing either a tie or a lead of Romney of 2 percentage points. Yesterday’s Pew poll which was widely reported had a 49-45 Romney lead was an outlier.
In terms of swing state polling, there has been plenty last night the net effect of which was to flip Ohio back to Obama and Colorado to Romney according to our 7 day poll average.
Lastly, after a week since the last day of pre-debate polling, we can now compare the post debate bump across the swing states which averages to a 6 point shift to Romney.
12:40 PM – 9 October
It looks unlikely we will get a fresh Ipsos-Reuters poll today for whatever reason. Therefore it shall remain at yesterday’s figures for the purposes of calculating today’s national tracking poll average which now rises to a 2.3% lead for President Obama from 1% yesterday.
9:55 AM – 9 October
Two new polls from Michigan both peg the Obama lead at 3 percentage points. EPIC-MRA conducted a poll of 600 Michigan likely voters and found Obama ahead 48-45. Democratic leaning pollster Baydoun/Foster conducted a poll of 1122 Michigan likely voters which found Obama ahead 49-46.
These two polls are the first done in Michigan since last week’s presidential debate.
9:22 AM – 9 October
The summary of the overnight action to this point is as follows:
National Polls
As you see today’s national tracking poll average is blank. We are still waiting for the release of the Ipsos-Reuters poll for today. The other poll both saw a one point shift to Obama; Rasmussen moved to 48-48 and Gallup moved to 50-45 Obama. The chart will be updated with the national tracking poll figure when today’s Ipsos-Reuters comes to hand.
State Polls
Three swing state polls were released last night all from Republican leaning pollsters. Rasmussen had polls for Iowa (49-47 Obama) and Colorado (Obama 49-48). Wenzel Strategies polled Ohio for conservative activist group Citizens United and reported at 49-48 Romney lead.
Ohio flips?
Based on the new Wenzel poll and a previous poll from NBC/Marist showing Obama with a 51-43 lead falling out of the average, Ohio now has a thin Romney lead in the 7-day poll average. However all three polls in the average come from Republican leaning pollsters so this position needs neutral confirmation. That being said a national Obama lead of only 1 point would imply a tight race in Ohio. In any event a Romney lead in Ohio turns the electoral college into a squeaker with a 272-266 Obama lead.
This race is very tight at the moment and in play based on the evidence to hand. We shall update further if any new polls come to hand.
11:50 AM – 8 October
Public Policy Polling (PPP) released its poll of Virginia a few minutes ago. The Democratic leaning pollster still has Obama ahead in the state by 3 percentage points and 50-47 overall. The poll compares with the 49-48 Romney lead published by Rasmussen and the 48-45 Romney lead published by We Ask America, both Republican leaning pollsters which conducted their surveys on Thursday 4 October.
The result has reduced Romney’s poll average lead in the state to 0.3% and just barely holds on to the state in the electoral college according to our 7 day poll average.
A link to the PPP Virginia poll tables can be found here when they are posted shortly in about an hour or so.
8:45 AM – 8 October
Obama holds the line
Last night the big news was the tracking polls which all held steady on their results from the previous day. This was the first day post-debate that Obama held his vote in these polls. President Obama has held the line on the erosion of his vote maintained his slender 1 percentage point national lead in the tracking polls.
It should be noted that the new daily samples obtained in these polls replaced pre-debate daily samples in all three polls when Obama was doing better, so it could be the case that the Democratic candidate could be seeing a bounce in his vote from its post debate trough. We await further evidence in this regard.
Overnight there was only one swing state poll conducted by Selzer and Co for the University of Denver which pegged the race at 47-43 in Colorado in favour of President Obama. This poll has flipped Colorado back into the Obama column in accordance with our simple 7 day poll average.
Romney gained a lead in Florida which was previously a tie, due to old polls falling out of the average after 7 days. Obama’s lead in Ohio and Wisconsin was reduced for the same reason as was Romney’s lead in North Carolina. This all moulded to EV total to 290-248 in Obama’s favour.
We are expecting a Virginia poll from PPP later today. We will post it as it comes to hand.
6:50 PM – 7 October
Democratic leaning pollster Public Policy Polling (PPP) released its first post debate swing state poll this morning (Sydney Time), a 979 respondent sample of the state of Wisconsin which showed a 49-47 lead for President Obama. Tables here. (pdf) This is significant for a few reasons:
- Wisconsin voted for Obama 56-42 at the last election. With Wisconsin Representative Paul Ryan on the GOP ticket that should narrow by 4 points to about the national vote at the last election. In short if Wisconsin is line ball then it is line ball nationally.
- PPP is a pollster with most of its clients related to the Democratic Party (candidates, unions etc). It is the first piece of evidence of a Romney post-debate bounce from that side of the polling spectrum and it too points to a line ball election at this point in time.
We will be back at 9 am Sydney time tomorrow morning, with an update on the overnight swing state polls.
9:30 AM – 7 October
Only one swing state poll overnight from Gravis Research in Colorado gave Romney a 3 percentage point lead in that state which flipped the lead and put the state in the Romney column according to our assessment.
The main movement in the polls overnight came from the tracking polls, which collectively moved to a 1 percentage point Obama lead, down from a previous 3 percentage point lead yesterday. The sample proportions which were conducted after the debate for each tracking poll and the respective current poll result is as follows:
- Rasmussen: 2 out of 3 days (66%) – Romney 49-47
- Gallup: 2 out of 7 days (28.5%) – Obama 49-46
- Ipsos-Reuters 3 out of 5 days (60%) – Obama 47-45
For the polls which have the majority of their sample taken after the first debate given the margins of error for each poll, we are looking at a lead for both candidates that is within the margin of error. In other words we are looking at a line ball race at the moment.
However, it can change, yesterday’s good unemployment report has yet to wash through the tracking polls and as noted yesterday the group of swing state polls that day came from Republican leaning firms. As always we can only watch and wait.
10:40 AM – 6 October
Overnight a slew of swing state polling in the key states of Florida, Virginia and Ohio shifted the race. Polls were released in these states by the Republican leaning polling firms Rasmussen and WeAskAmerica which moved Romney in front in Virginia, tied the race in Florida and narrowed the Obama lead in Ohio by 3 points on the basis of a 7 day rolling average of polls.
President Obama still holds a lead in enough states to win in the electoral college, but his estimated number of electoral votes has now fallen below 300 to 290.
Nevada has also received a new poll after over a week without a new survey The Gravis Research survey dramatically reduced the Obama lead from 11% to 1%. Needless to say we await new polling for confirmation.
In terms of national tracking polls, Obama’ lead has shrunk to just 3 points. Due to the nature of tracking polls and fall in the Obama lead due to the first debate will still take a few more days to filter through. By way of illustration here is a brief summary of the structure of the tracking polls we are monitoring:
- Rasmussen: 500 voters daily in a 3 day average
- Gallup: 435 voters daily in a 7 day average
- Ipsos- Reuters: 250 daily in a 5 day average
As a side note, we have chosen the tracking polls as the measure of the national vote as they are released daily and thus we can keep a consistent measure of the national vote by a stable set of polls each day. Unfortunately we do not have that luxury with state polling.
The narrowing that was expected after the first debate is now in full swing, however the depth of the narrowing is yet to be seen. The only hard evidence that there is on the state polls has come from GOP-leaning polling firms. That being said the national tracking polls have seen a narrowing commence and the post-debate portion of their samples is still a minority of their overall samples. Consequently if the Romney bounce hods for the next few days there should be further narrowing in the national tracking polls.
Furthermore, the first debate has been all the election story over the past few days. This may change with the shock 7.8% unemployment rate which was released by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics last night. We can only watch and wait.
If you want to check out the results individual polls go to Real Clear Politics: http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/latest_polls/elections/
1PM – 5 October
Introduction
With yesterday’s debate appearing to give the Republican challenger Mitt Romney a shot in the arm the US presidential election, it looks like this race may well tighten up. To this end we will now turn our attention to the polls in the US elections. As a service for our regular readers at the top of this post is a quick one look guide to the latest state of the US presidential election in the swing states. This post will be kept at the top of the blog except when important Australian events occur. It will also provide rolling commentary underneath the table.
The above graphic is a one-look guide for the polling situation in each state. We shall post for each of the above states an average of the polls taken over the past 7 days commencing from October 3, the day before the first debate. The polls are indicated in terms of the percentage point lead President Obama holds over his challenger. The above chart will be a good guide to the impact of the first debate on President Obama’s previous poll lead.
Also included is daily average of the national tracking polls which are currently reporting daily in this election; Rasmussen, Gallup and Ipsos-Reuters. A tally of the electoral votes for each candidate based on the state which they are presumed ahead is at the bottom. For President Obama, his EV tally is a simple sum of the electoral votes won in the swing states above plus all other states won by Obama in 2008 except Indiana. For Governor Romney his EV tally is a simple sum of all swing states where he is ahead plus all states won by Senator John McCain in 2008 plus Indiana.
This post will be updated periodically with the latest polls as they come to hand.
