Low bond yields and weak stocks have had Ed Dempsey of Pension Partners cautious on the market. Beyond the election, he's waiting for signs of a fiscal cliff resolution that could be the next catalyst to get more of his investing money back to work. When the risk-on trade returns, Dempsey is ready to pounce on opportunities in one of the riskiest sectors around the globe. (See Related: Low Bond Yields Are a Big Red Flag for Equities)
"Emerging markets (EEM) all year have been hostage to this Europe collapse story, to the global macro story, and strong dollar," says Dempsey. "Emerging markets typically are the factory floor of the developed markets."
He's particularly looking at China and eyeing the iShares FTSE China 25 ETF (FXI).
"The Chinese markets have been miserable, but seem technically to be bottoming. We have brand new leadership coming, there's been a lot of talk of stimulus or other additional liquidity measures that they may do," he says. "Those liquidity measures, as we know in the past, do have an impact on very weak markets; look at our markets."
But Breakout's Jeff Macke takes the opposite view and points out that China's drag on the emerging markets may be too large to expect a collective rebound anytime soon. "China's the big dog -or dragon if you will- wagging the tail, so emerging markets aren't going anywhere without China," he says. "The data in China is murky at best, and the new leader, I don't know much about the guy."
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