Both parties claim early-voting edge

As Florida's razor-edge presidential race draws to a close, with polls too tight to predict a winner, both campaigns point to the results of early and absentee voting to claim they're winning.

But at least one expert who compiles figures on early voting nationwide says neither side can truly back its claims, and that early and absentee voting figures point mostly to the same conclusion as the polls: a very close race.

Both campaigns have worked feverishly to "bank" their votes — get supporters to vote before Election Day. Both are poring over figures on party affiliations of early voters, voters who have requested absentee ballots, and those who returned them.

The Republican argument:

"They (Democrats) are under-performing what their 2008 numbers were, and we are over-performing," said Mitt Romney campaign political director Rich Beeson in a conference call with reporters.

"There's no question we have an intensity advantage. … Intensity drives turnout," added Romney pollster Neil Newhouse.

The Democratic argument:

Democrats hold a 2-percentage-point lead in total pre-election votes after the first five days of early voting, Oct. 27 to 31.

President Barack Obama's campaign has built "the largest ground game in Florida history" — a voter turnout apparatus with an unprecedented number of volunteers, said Obama Florida campaign spokesman Eric Jotkoff.

But George Mason University political scientist Michael McDonald said despite spin from both sides, "Right now when I look at the numbers, it just looks to me like a close election. If you just look at the overall numbers … it's going to be decided Election Day."

Some of those numbers:

• As of Thursday, 3,464,182 votes had been cast by absentee or early voters, or 29 percent of the 11,934,446 registered Florida voters.

• Of those, 1,396,223 were cast by registered Republicans, 1,472,278 by Democrats and 595,681 by minor party or no-party affiliates.

That's an advantage for the Democrats of 42 percent to 40 percent for Republicans and 17 percent others.

The political calculations are based on each side's voting tendencies.

Florida Republicans worked to build an absentee voting machine, enabling them to dominate mail-in voting.

Democrats emphasized early voting, particularly weekend voting, which is convenient for minorities and young people who may have trouble getting to a polling place on a weekday or waiting in a long line after work to vote.

Republicans say though Democrats lead in total absentee/early figures, they aren't leading by as much as they did in 2008, when they built a big advantage in early voting.

"We are set to win Election Day voters by about double digits," said veteran Florida political strategist Brett Doster, a Romney campaign adviser. "We expect to be down in the early and absentee combined. We tend to surge going into Election Day."

Democrats say their two-point lead includes the traditional GOP stronghold of absentees, and puts them in a better position than in the past heading into Election Day.

But McDonald says changes in Florida voting laws, and new tactics adopted by both campaigns in response, complicate comparisons between 2012 and 2008.

This year, in a move Democrats contend was aimed by the GOP-dominated Legislature at cutting into their early vote advantage, the number of early voting days was reduced from 14 to eight, but the maximum allowable number of hours remained the same.

The Obama Florida campaign adopted a "Vote Now" strategy, urging supporters to get ballots at elections offices and vote on the spot or mail them in. Those ballots are counted as absentees.

Republicans, meanwhile, have adopted the Democrats' emphasis on early voting.

That's had an effect, McDonald said. "They've succeeded in changing voters' behavior," persuading Election Day voters to vote early and early voters to vote absentee.

As a result, early and absentee voters this year could surpass the 54 percent of the total vote they comprised in 2008.

Despite cutbacks in early voting days, this year's nearly 3.5 million early voters have surpassed the 2008 total of 2,661,672, with Friday's and today's totals still to come.

With nearly 1.8 million absentee ballots received so far, the total is likely to surpass the 1,850,502 in 2008.

"To an extent, they've nullified each others' advantages and canceled each other out," McDonald said. "The Democrats may have banked a slight advantage, but it could be rolled back on Election Day."

Some conclusions drawn, according to Doster's figures on early and absentee votes this year and 2008, suggest Republicans may be working the system more effectively:

• Democratic absentee ballot requests are up from 815,688 in 2008 to 1,124,259 so far this year, a 308,571 rise.

• Democratic early voting is down — 766,121 so far this year, compared to 1,050,045 at this point in 2008, when there were 12 days of early voting, a 283,924 decrease.

• Republican early voting is virtually the same, despite the fewer days — 612,974 this year compared to 609,325 in 2008.

• Republican absentee ballot requests are up from 1,022,411 to 1,161,099, a 138,688 increase.

Republicans say Democrats have taken votes they would have received in early voting and shifted them to the absentee category. Democrats say Republicans have moved Election Day voters to early voting.

"Both sides may simply be reshuffling their voters," said McDonald. "We don't know if all that's happened is shuffling people around, or if there's greater enthusiasm or intensity in this election. I'd say there's some of both."