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Investment Will Boost China’s Economy

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The underlying weakness in the US, European and Japanese economies was underestimated in China’s forecasts for 2012. The US is currently consuming more capital than it creates, while its percentage of investment in GDP is near post-World War II lows. Japan’s investment levels have declined for two decades while its savings rate has fallen. EU investment is the lowest percentage of GDP since World War II and declining. These economies cannot achieve rapid recovery under such conditions.

These structural features dictated the poor short term performance of Western economies during 2012. The EU entered a new recession with GDP still 2.1% below 2008’s peak levels. Japan’s latest GDP data shows tortoise like 0.8% annualized growth with output still 1.9% below its peak. US GDP growth decelerated from 4.1% at the end of 2011 to 1.7% in the last quarter. The US PMI fell for three months to 49.6 in August. US industrial production in the same month only rose 2.8% compared to a year previously – less than a third of China’s growth.

The problems in developed economies directly affected China. China’s 10% projected export increase in 2012 will not be achieved, helping explain why China's economy significantly decelerated in the first part of the year. GDP growth fell to 7.8 percent in the first half of the year, while August’s industrial growth declined to 8.9 percent and the official manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index fell to 49.2.

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How Ireland Guaranteed the Shadow Banking System

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There is a tendency these days in articles by right-wing TDs and libertarian economists in particular to talk up how the Troika bailout was not provided for the Irish people to pay for schools and hospitals during a financial crisis but was provided simply to pay back French and German banks for the money they lent Irish banks during the credit bubble. Further that by the unwillingness of the ECB to reduce that debt we are forced to pay in full for mistakes that are not the responsibility of the Irish people. For example, Mario Dragi’s response to Gay Mitchell’s question in the European Parliament:

“It’s too easy to think that the ECB can replace governments’ action or lack of it, printing money. That’s not going to happen”.

Now, while there is a great deal of truth in the injustice of the matter, it neglects one important aspect as far as I can see. It follows the narrative that the Irish political establishment has no hand or part in this dreadful imposition. Ultimately it suggests that the pressure we are being put under comes exclusively from an external authoritarian source – the IMF/ECB/EU Troika. There is no mention of the fact that the imposition of the bailout in order to pay back French and German bank losses in full was imposed on Ireland because of the nature of Ireland’s blanket bank guarantee.

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Makingupthenum

October Socialist Voice Out Now!

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October Socialist Voice Out Now!

The October issue of Socialist Voice can be viewed online: http://www.communistpartyofireland.ie/sv/SV-94.pdf

Contents:

  1. Fine Gael firmly in the driving seat [EMC]
  2. Latvia and Lithuania: a demographic disaster [COM]
  3. Privatisation: robbing the people’s wealth [EMC]
  4. Why Keynesianism will not deliver the goods [NC]
  5. Understanding the crisis and putting the system on trial [NL]
  6. Turning a human right into a commodity
  7. Is state censorship of the media returning? [BH]
  8. Essay competition on the international brigades
  9. The Shankill and the Falls fight together! [TR]
  10. Labour helps Obama to subvert Venezuela [TMS]
  11. Obama at the United Nations [BG]
  12. George Morrison honoured by the Progressive Film Club [MNM]

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Unveiling Capitalism at Occupy

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[From the Forthcoming Autumn 2012 Irish Anarchist Review]

If the normal way revolutionaries engage in politics is to go to people suffering a particular injustice or oppression, fight it alongside them, and raise their consciousness of the systemic change necessary to end all oppressions; then Occupy was a movement that seemed to be happening the wrong way around. Occupy started with the broad systemic critique and desire to put it into action, but never made the critique more coherent, nor translated it into the political activity necessary to effect social change at anywhere close to the scale initially hoped for. Obviously the 99%/1% critique was quite vague and ambiguous, but the movement placed central importance in open discussions about big societal issues and its goals and strategies. Despite this being an ideal situation for revolutionaries, our radical analyses didn’t win many supporters. A year on from participating in Occupy Cork I ask why, and hope to aid the learning of theoretical and practical lessons for future social movement engagements.

The approaches to consciousness raising vary for revolutionaries of the Marxist-Leninist and anarchist-communist variety. For Leninists, the only correct analysis for overcoming the oppression of capitalism lies in their party, therefore recruitment is central. Once in the party, recruits didactically receive the party analysis, with those not agreeing with it presumed to be labouring under a false consciousness. Anarchists tend to be uncomfortable with such an infallible and hierarchical epistemology, and instead prefer to focus on empowering people to organise and think for themselves. This tends to work very well in aiding understanding of the interpersonal aspects of power relations, and the way oppressive power can manifest itself in groups and through gender, race and other privileges – areas where we have seen huge advances against oppressive power since Marxism lost its hegemonic position as the way to do oppositional politics in the sixties. But with the more impersonal oppression of contemporary capitalism in the West, we see both that less people have a critical understanding of it, and that the gains made by the workers’ movements of the post war era have been pushed back for several decades. The logic of the commodity has expanded its control over more of our lives, while its further reification [1] has immunised it from critical scrutiny.

Soon after Occupy Cork started it was noted in our local Workers Solidarity Movement [2] branch discussions that the arguments for internal democracy we’re used to having in campaigns wouldn’t be as much of a preoccupation in this case. The Occupiers were, so to speak, “even more anarchist” than us in their conception of democracy; but the problem was that they didn’t see this conception extending to the realm of economic production. Consequently we saw as one of our key tasks the promotion of the communist part of anarchist-communism. Like other anti-capitalists at the camp, I tried this in various ways: doing some talks and articles, bringing trade unionists and various left-wing and anti-capitalist academics and activists to speak, and in general conversations and discussions making radical arguments and pushing for a further development of the 99%/1% analysis. While the strategy did have some positive effects on the overall consciousness of the camp, it wasn’t unproblematic, as radicals in many other camps have learned. Helena Sheehan in her essay, “Occupying Dublin: Considerations at a Crossroads”, talked of the hostility against the “intellectual elite” of the camp, who she indicates were vaguely defined as “people who read books, write blogs, organise talks and articulate criticism” [3]. Similarly, other Occupy writings have talked about the divide that developed between the experienced activists and the newcomers to social movements. Of course radicals could arrogantly discount this as a manifestation of bourgeois liberalism, but we could obviously learn a lot more by subjecting our own political strategies, methodologies and theories to critical scrutiny. In that spirit of revolutionary praxis being a constant process of action and reflection, it is to the work of the great Brazilian educator, Paulo Freire, that we will now turn.

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communistpartyire

Noonan Letting the Cat Out of the Bag

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The statement today by the minister for finance, Michael Noonan, calling on the European Central Bank to make a “declaration of intent” about some kind of solution in relation to the Anglo-Irish Bank promissory notes is a clear sign of desperation by a government that has neither the political will nor the courage to challenge this illegitimate and odious anti-people debt dumped on the backs of our people.

The Irish establishment has been claiming almost every time they come back from these jamborees that they have struck a deal; but no sooner have they their backsides back in their Mercs than their “deal” unravels.

This is the first time that any Irish minister has publicly admitted that there is strong link between the government’s budget strategy and the repayments of this odious debt. This he did when he stated: “It would help me doing the budgetary arithmetic if something could be arranged” in relation to the promissory notes.

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Politics of Indignation

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By imparting a consciousness of human struggle against neoliberal violence and its ramifications, Politics of Indignation provides a discourse which seeks to disrupt the process through which citizens have become fodder for imperialist powers to consolidate a destructive political system.

Capitalism created a culture of oblivion, distorting international solidarity through globalization. The fragmenting of human rights discourse alienated the scope of internationalism, thus enabling imperialism and the media to create an imaginary platform of unity which strives to consolidate divergences, geopolitical stereotypes and control over freedom. Mayo discerns a flow of coercion which, through playing upon concepts such as citizenship, identity and the value of humanity, threatens to rupture unity within the oppressed.

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Chavez_elect

The Venezuelan Elections and The Irish Times

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The October 3rd Irish Times editorial on the Venezuelan elections is just one more in a long series of unbalanced pieces, critical of President Hugo Chavez. Unfortunately, as well being full of unsubstantiated accusations, it is also inaccurate.

In the first paragraph the author describes the economy of Venezuela as “creaking,inefficient nationalised, Soviet-like with corruption and authoritarianism”. With economic growth of 5.6% in the first quarter of 2012 and expected to be at 5% overall for the year, that's some “creak”. The charge of corruption is not substantiated by any proof or attempt at same. Would the IT use the same standards when reporting on Irish politicians?

So far, the major corruption item in the lead up to the election is a video which has emerged of a top campaign aide of Venezuelan opposition candidate Henrique Capriles Radonski covertly accepting 40,000 bolivars (US $9,300) and offering to set up a meeting between Capriles and an unknown businessman.

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Eurozone Crisis: What Next?

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Recently engaged in a round of backslapping, the leaders of Europe suggested that we were turning the corner out of the crisis. In Ireland despite all the evidence to the contrary, the government is still trying to talk up the prospect of a ‘deal’ on the bank debt. But on the ground, the crisis is worsening, austerity is destroying people’s lives and the economies of Europe. In the first of two articles on the future of the EU, Paul Murphy MEP examines the immediate prospects for the eurozone crisis in the next months.

Once more, the markets were temporarily calmed in September. The road forward to a stable eurozone was pronounced to be nearer than ever. The relatively tranquil summer for the eurozone was followed by a series of declared victories – the new European Central Bank (ECB) bond-buying programme; the German constitutional court positive ruling on the European Stability Mechanism; the announcement of the European Commission's proposal for common supervision of Europe's banks by the ECB; and the victory of the Liberals and Social-Democrats in the Dutch elections, despite the earlier good showing for the Socialist Party. The bond yields for the crisis-ridden states fell to relative lows and Commission President Barroso took the opportunity to spell out a longer-term vision of a move to a “federation of nation states” in Europe.

That this was simply the calm before the unleashing of a mighty storm of crisis in autumn and winter across Europe has already become evident. The measures announced represent new sticking plasters on the crisis. Yet again, the fundamental contradictions facing the eurozone have not been addressed. A series of deep crises in different states are likely to emerge in the coming weeks and months, putting into question the continued existence of the eurozone as is once more.

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Magd_Gu_art

The System of Allowing Asylum Seekers to Languish in Ireland is the Magdalene Laundries of Our Time

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Gavan Titley has an excellent article in the Guardian which makes a comparison with the Irish state’s responsibility for the conditions suffered by the occupants of Ireland’s gulag system of laundries and industrial schools and the immoral inadequacy of the direct provision system for asylum seekers and the regularity of deportation.

“At present, approximately 6,000 people live in direct provision accommodation centres in Ireland while their asylum claims are processed. Originally introduced as an “emergency measure” in 1999 to speed up asylum determination procedures, over a third have been in this system for more than three years, and waits of seven or eight years are not unheard of. Unable to access education, employment or frequently even to cook for themselves, asylum-seekers are accommodated and fed, and granted an adult weekly allowance of €19.10 (rates that have not changed in real terms since their introduction over a decade ago). For this other population, also corralled and controlled outside of society, it is unsurprising that anxiety, depression and ill health are widespread.

No comparison should obscure the particular forms of violence and suffering that mark different experiences. But the parallels are politically important. Ill health scarred the lives of children in industrial schools – a recent report has documented the appalling conditions and health problems of the children of asylum seekers, who constitute one-third of the population of the direct provision system. According to O’Toole, thousands of people died each decade in the neglectful conditions of psychiatric hospitals – in September Emmanuel Marcel Landa became the latest person to die in the direct provision system, and as Sue Conlon of the Irish Refugee Council noted, “the impact of long delays, lengthy residence in direct provision accommodation and the real threat of deportation may well have been a contributory factor in Mr Landa’s untimely death”.

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The Left Overs of Social Partnership

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In Ireland, after four years of an austerity program we now find the economy is getting worse and not better. Most of society is asking where it all went wrong and what the solutions are. The trade union movement in Ireland appears to be divided on the approach we should take on the economy. Citizens of countries with austerity programs like Spain, Italy and Portugal are protesting and it’s mostly organised and led by the trade unions. But in Ireland there appears to be no will on behalf of some trade unions to take this approach. So why is this?

Did the trade union movement lose its way during social partnership and now finds it very difficult to cut the umbilical cord from the corporatist approach? Some people may even argue the trade union movement were complicit in the financial crisis, in that they had gone a step too far in their relationships with the Government and no one from the trade union spoke out at the time, on the economic and social policies implemented by the government.

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